Brazil vs. Paraguay

Mineirão, Belo Horizonte, February 1, 2022

Kickoff: 7:30 PM EDT / 9:30 PM BRT / 11:30 PM GMT

Possible Starting XI: Ederson; Dani Alves, Marquinhos, Thiago Silva, Alex Telles; Fabinho, Lucas Paquetá, Philippe Coutinho; Raphinha, Matheus Cunha, Vini Jr.

On The Bench: Alisson, Weverton, Thiago Silva, Bruno Guimarães, Casemiro, Fred, Gerson, Everton Ribeiro, Gabriel Jesus, Gabigol, Rodrygo, Antony.

Notes and Storylines

After the lunacy that was Thursday’s mess of a game, we’re likely to see a heavily changed starting lineup. In addition to the suspensions for Emerson Royal and Éder Militão, and a general desire to rotate and experiment, Real Madrid have asked Tite to not start their players because they’ve got a Copa Del Rey game less than 48 hours after this one ends.

Well shit, scratch all that, because Globo just revealed the starting lineup and it’s wildly different from what they’d reported yesterday (which had Gabriel Magalhães making his debut, Bruno Guimarães anchoring the midfield alongside Fred, and Vini Jr. on the bench because Real Madrid asked Tite not to start him). There goes all the stuff I’d written on the various players who would’ve been making a rare or first start. Only Telles and Coutinho are real unknowns in this new lineup. At least I can recycle what I’d written for them.

Telles looks to be in line for a massive opportunity—with Alex Sandro out with COVID, Renan Lodi barred because he didn’t get his COVID vaccine, and Guilherme Arana not called thanks to Atlético-MG’s delayed return from the offseason, Telles gets to come in from the cold and show whether he can offer more in the left-back role than the… well, mostly nothing that Alex Sandro does. Coutinho starts after being yanked early in the Ecuador game after Emerson got sent off. (An odd decision, I thought, both because Tite was so keen to see how he’d perform and because it left the midfield undermanned.)

I kind of wish we’d seen the other lineup. The one we’re getting is probably better, but it may teach us less. Other than Telles and Coutinho, the main question mark is whether Paquetá playing in a deeper role can bring more creativity to the midfield, and even then we already have evidence (think the Venezuela game in late 2020, the one that maybe saved Paquetá’s Brazil career) that it can. I would have liked to see what Gabriel Magalhães could do with his first start, especially since Thiago Silva played all 110 VAR-interrupted minutes against Ecuador. Bruno Guimarães, too, seems to have no luck finding a way into the team. I didn’t like the earlier rumors that he was going to be tried in the destroyer role, but it’s sad to see him be passed over as Fred’s replacement in this new lineup. (Plus, why the hell hasn’t Tite taken greater advantage of his chemistry with Paquetá?) Hell, I would rather have seen him replace Raphinha than VJ, but it would’ve been neat to see what Antony could do with a full start as well.

As far as predictions go, although I want the team to thrive, I think the dysfunction we’ve been seeing goes much deeper than just some personnel changes. On top of that, while Paraguay are having a terrible qualifying campaign, they have a record of giving us a hard time in recent years. I think we’ll just squeak by them with a 1-0 win, but the only reason I’m not predicting a 1-1 draw is because Paraguay’s attack has been by some distance the worst in CONMEBOL this cycle.