Ecuador vs. Brazil

Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado, Quito, January 27, 2022

Kickoff: 4:00 PM EDT / 6:00 PM BRT / 8:00 PM GMT

Possible Starting XI: Alisson; Emerson Royal, Thiago Silva, Éder Militão, Alex Sandro; Casemiro, Fred, Philippe Coutinho; Raphinha, Matheus Cunha, Vinícius Júnior.

On The Bench: Ederson, Weverton, Dani Alves, Alex Telles, Marquinhos, Gabriel Magalhães, Bruno Guimarães, Gerson, Everton Ribeiro, Gabriel Jesus, Rodrygo, Antony, Gabriel Jesus, Gabigol.

Notes and Storylines

The biggest question mark surrounding this game, and indeed this whole international break, is this: will we find answers to any of our problem positions? As I discussed in my last post, it’s still not clear that who our best options are at right-back, left-back, center-forward, and central midfield, let alone if Tite’s actually playing them. We may get some answers for two of those in this game. The injury to Danilo has given Emerson Royal a fresh chance to start at RB, and while he hasn’t been particularly impressive for Tottenham, he combined really well with Raphinha the last time he started for Brazil, bringing the best out of the winger in a way Danilo really hasn’t. Up front, it seems like Tite may be settling on Matheus Cunha as his first choice striker, which I agree with on paper: since none of our striker options can score goals consistently, play the one who can do the most beyond scoring goals. But I still think Cunha actually needs to score a goal or two, or at least evidently make it easier for his teammates to score goals, to really cement his case, especially since it sounds like Tite may try some different players against Paraguay next week.

In the other two problem positions, we’re seeing nobody new, a shame when neither Alex Sandro nor Fred has proven to be an exceptional player. Maybe I’ll be proven wrong against Paraguay, but you get the sense that Tite is only trying the new faces he is trying because the regulars in those positions are unavailable, and wouldn’t otherwise.

The other big storyline concerns whether Vini Jr. and Philippe Coutinho can perform for Brazil. Neymar’s injury and Lucas Paquetá’s suspension have given them both a chance to start, and each has a lot to prove. VJ played well as a starter in Brazil’s last game against Argentina, but it was his first truly good performance in a yellow jersey and he still has yet to score his first Seleção goal. He’s not as capable a playmaker as Neymar is, but if he can be the sort of goal threat that he is for Real Madrid, maybe he’ll compel Tite to find a way to play the two of them together in the future. (Tite’s comments on Coutinho playing Neymar’s role suggest he’s already working on it.)

Coutinho, for his part, has struggled immensely throughout his deeply troubled time at Barcelona, but Tite and his staff have always maintained faith in his ability. They believe the Coutinho from Liverpool, the Coutinho who was probably our best player at the 2018 World Cup, is still there, just needing a supportive, functional environment to flourish again. The question is whether that is truly the case, whether leaving the mess that is Barcelona is enough for him to reclaim his form and confidence. Certainly the early evidence from his move to Aston Villa has been very, very good. But I can’t help but feel like starting for Brazil right now might be too much, too soon. He may need more than a couple of games with Villa to truly get back to a headspace where he can thrive week in, week out. And that’s leaving aside his many injury problems in the past two years, which may diminish him even if he’s already back to his best mentally.

As for a prediction, well, Ecuador are having a really strong World Cup qualifying campaign, and this is an away game in the high altitude of Quito, and we struggled a bit for goals in November’s games, even with Raphinha drastically improving the right flank. Still, I’m going to keep faith that Emerson can bring out the best in Raphinha like he did against Uruguay, and bet on the athleticism of Raphinha and Vini Jr. being too much for Ecuador, and predict a 2-0 win for us. Away and at altitude, I think that would be a pretty good result.