Here we go…

Brazil vs. Argentina

Estádio Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro, July 10, 2021

Kickoff: 8:00 PM EDT / 9:00 PM BRT / 12:00 AM GMT

US TV / Streaming: FS1, TUDN, Univision

My Predicted Starting Lineup: Ederson; Danilo, Marquinhos, Thiago Silva, Renan Lodi; Casemiro, Fred, Lucas Paqueta; Everton Cebolinha, Richarlison, Neymar.

Absences and doubts: Gabriel Jesus (red card suspension extended by CONMEBOL), Alex Sandro (might be fit again, but won’t start)

Notes And Storylines

All right, this is it. This incredibly stupid and badly-organized cash grab of a tournament suddenly has some real stakes attached to it, at least as far as Brazilian footballing pride goes. The only thing standing between Argentina finally ending their decades-long wait for a trophy, and Lionel Messi finally checking off one of the few remaining items on his football bucket list by winning a major tournament with his country, and with the added pride/bragging rights of doing it on Brazilian soil, is… a Brazil side that hasn’t been particularly convincing for the last few games.

What’s funny is that Argentina are, in many respects, mirroring Brazil in that regard. Where Brazil have had a bad habit of playing only one good half in each game, usually the second half, Argentina have been overwhelmingly a first-half team, scoring eight of their 11 goals at this tournament in the first half, four of those in the first 13 minutes of games. And just as Brazil are overwhelmingly dependent on Neymar, who’s had a hand (even if not always assisting) in almost every one of the team’s goals, so are Argentina overwhelmingly dependent on Lionel Messi, who has scored or assisted nine of those 11 goals. Even in areas that would seem to favor one team over the other, the numbers are pretty similar. We complain about the profligacy of Brazil’s attack, but Argentina miss big chances at basically the same frequency. We take comfort in the quality of Brazil’s defense, but Argentina have only conceded one more goal, and have allowed shots and big chances at about the same rate.

Still, I think the key to this game for Brazil might be in defense. We’ve questioned Tite’s “tire them out in the first half, hit them in the second” strategy, but this may be its time to shine—if our defense can contain Argentina’s early onslaught. We’re certainly better equipped to do it than any of Argentina’s previous opposition, but this is likely to be a test the likes of which we haven’t faced in a while. But it is worth noting that when these teams met in the semifinals of the last Copa América, despite Argentina generally bossing the midfield and having far more shots, Thiago Silva, Marquinhos, and company held them largely to potshots from outside the box.

Of course, that semifinal in 2019 really only broke for us because of two moments of superb individual quality. Dani Alves rinsed three defenders in the buildup to the first goal, and Gabriel Jesus ran 60-plus yards to set up the second. We can’t count on that sort of magic to be enough this time around. It could always happen, but we clearly need to put forth a more effective attack on the whole. Indications are that Tite will give Everton Cebolinha another chance as a starter, which makes sense in a lot of ways. He’s quick, he’s a good dribbler, he’s a reasonably good goalscorer. But this tournament has reinforced the notion that he simply cannot play in the same lineup as Neymar, or at least that he can’t play on the right wing. So will Tite persist in lining them up in the same way as has proven not to work? Or will he gamble on something else? Say… a 4-3-1-2 where Neymar plays in the hole behind Cebolinha and Richarlison, allowing Cebolinha to operate more on the left?

On Argentina’s side, beyond Messi, who seems determined to win this tournament entirely by himself, two other things concern me. First, Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni seems to have a better idea of how to effectively set up his midfield, while Tite has recently often ceded the midfield battle in an often futile attempt to get more personnel into the attack. Second, Argentina’s bench contains many more players who can turn the tide of a game if things are going badly—Ángel Di María was huge in reestablishing control of their semifinal against Colombia, and they can also count on Ángel Correa and even Sergio Agüero in a pinch. A close game could swing Argentina’s way late on even after it looks like Brazil have established their customary second-half dominance.

So there’s two ways I could see this going. One, Tite’s questionable personnel and tactical decisions—not calling up the full 28-man squad he could have, not calling up a bona fide right winger, choosing a particularly thin group of midfielders, persisting with Fred as a starter—are exposed by Argentina’s better-organized midfield and Messi’s volition, leading to a loss that embarrasses both Tite and the CBF, possibly resulting in Tite’s firing (Rogério Caboclo may be suspended, but he’s not gone from the CBF yet), and (silver lining?) possibly embarrassing the Bolsonaro administration that pushed so hard to host this deeply ill-advised tournament and hastening its decline. Two, Tite reminds us that while he is often infuriating and short-sighted, he’s still a pretty good manager who knows how to grind out comfortable wins, especially in South America.

There are a couple of other things that could help Brazil. First of all, the players have much more rest than they did between their quarterfinal and semifinal, which is encouraging since fatigue may well have played a role in the very poor second half against Peru on Monday. (Argentina have one fewer day before the final, after having the same two days between quarter and semi as us.) Second, and fucking finally, we’re not playing on the horrible Olympic Stadium pitch! Four of our six games have been on this increasingly ratty pitch, and while I haaaate the “the pitch was bad and we couldn’t play our football” excuse, it was very obvious that the awful surface was affecting how the ball rolled and bounced. Just look at Lucas Paquetá’s goal against Peru—the ball does a little hop off a divot in the turf before it reaches him. The final’s taking place across town at the Maracanã, and Tite has already praised the pitch, after spending the past few weeks complaining about the Olympic Stadium. Lastly, there will be fans in attendance! Apparently caving to CONMEBOL pressure, the government of Rio will open the stadium to spectators at 10% capacity. Roughly 8,000 fans may not be a lot (hopefully they won’t be a big COVID risk in a country still struggling to overcome the pandemic), but compared to zero in every past game, and with all of those fans being Brazilian, it can only be a boost to Brazil. (Unless things go really badly at the start of the game.)

As for a prediction: Well, I can’t help but feel somewhat uneasy about this game, and you know the adage to “expect the worst, because then anything else will be a pleasant surprise”? With that in mind, I’m going to predict a score of Brazil 1-1 Argentina, with Argentina winning on penalties. I think it’s plausible given the teams’ relative strengths, and after Argentina’s shootout win over Colombia, I certainly don’t want to go up against Emiliano Martínez in a shootout. And it’s bound to be the most unpleasant possible game to watch. At least losing 3-0 in regular time would be over sooner, and might even force Tite to rethink some of his tactics. But taking Argentina all the way, only to lose in a shootout? That’s two-plus hours of agony, and you know it wouldn’t compel Tite to change much.

Hopefully that won’t be the case. I put that GIF of Adriano’s last-second equalizer from the last time we played Argentina in a Copa América final at the top of this post for a reason. Maybe we won’t need that sort of magic, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt to have it.