Brazil vs. Peru

Estádio Olímpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro, July 5, 2021

Kickoff: 7:00 PM EDT / 8:00 PM BRT / 11:00 PM GMT

US TV / Streaming: FS1, TUDN, Univision

Predicted Starting Lineup: Ederson; Danilo, Marquinhos, Thiago Silva, Renan Lodi; Casemiro, Fred, Everton Ribeiro; Richarlison, Gabigol, Neymar.

Absences and doubts: (in 30-foot-high flaming letters) Gabriel Jesus (red card suspension), Alex Sandro (missed quarterfinal with hamstring injury)

Notes And Storylines

So the good news is that Peru should be relatively easy as far as semifinal opponents go. After a 4-0 win against them in the group stage, our aggregate scoreline against them in five competitive games under Tite is 18-3. But the storylines for this week are all about ways in which things could go wrong.

First of all: despite Tite’s repeated complaints, this semifinal is still going to be played on the ever-worsening pitch of the Olympic Stadium in Rio, where we’ve already played (and, admittedly, won) three of our games at the Copa. But the surface is getting pretty awful, as we saw in Friday’s game against Chile, and it’s hard to imagine it’ll be better after just two and a half days of prep work. If there’s a silver lining here, it’s that Peru also seek to play positive, attractive football, so the surface is likely to fuck them up as well.

Second: With only two days of rest after an exhausting quarterfinal against Chile, where we spent essentially the entire second half down a man, some of our key players may not be at their best. Someone like Casemiro, who worked his ass off chasing down the ball to protect the back four, is less of a concern because Fabinho is a more than capable replacement—but in positions where we’re lacking that depth, a drained player could be a real problem. I’m a bit worried about Renan Lodi, not because he looked particularly tired, but because Alex Sandro is working through an injury and Lodi may be without a proper replacement if he can’t last 90 minutes.

Third: Weird as it sounds considering they were Brazil’s worst players on the pitch, the performances of Roberto Firmino and Gabriel Jesus against Chile blow holes right through Tite’s game plan. For all his experimentation in the group stage, two things stayed almost constant: he chose to use players who are ostensibly strikers out wide to partner with Neymar, and Jesus was always his favorite option on the right. With Jesus’ absolutely moronic red card taking him out of the semifinal and probably several games after that, and Firmino simultaneously offering yet more proof that he’s now a useless husk of his former self, Tite suddenly has a dilemma. How does he set up his attack? Presumably he’ll abandon the weird 4-2-4 with three number 9s he’s used to minimal effect throughout the tournament, putting in Paquetá or Ribeiro ahead of Casemiro and Fred and making Neymar part of the front three. But he needs someone to replace Jesus! It probably won’t be Cebolinha, who’s shown that he really needs to play on the left, and it’s hard to imagine it being Vinícius Júnior, who has the requisite pace but doesn’t seem to have earned Tite’s trust. So I’d expect it to be Richarlison on the right, since he’s been decent there before. But Richarlison’s also the best option in this squad to play up top! Firmino and Gabigol have both proven to be pretty useless at this tournament. So does Tite take a risk at central striker or at right wing? I’d prefer the latter (VJ or Cebolinha would, if nothing else, provide a pacy outlet for Neymar’s through balls), but I wouldn’t be surprised if Tite chooses the former, which feels more conservative.

Prediction time! Peru had a similarly tiring quarterfinal to what we had, twice conceding an equalizer to 10-man Paraguay, and they’ve conceded 10 goals across their five games so far. That, combined with our recent record against them, makes me think that we’ll have an easier match than we did on Friday—but a harder match than we did when we faced Peru in the group stage. I’ll reuse my same prediction from that game: Brazil 3-2 Peru.