We’re fucked, aren’t we?

Brazil vs. Argentina

Maracanã, Rio De Janeiro, November 21, 2023

Kickoff: 7:30PM EST / 9:30 PM BRT / 12:30 AM GMT

US TV/Streaming: Fanatiz

Likely Starting Lineup: Alisson; Emerson Royal, Marquinhos, Gabriel Magalhães, Carlos Augusto; André, Bruno Guimarães; Martinelli, Gabriel Jesus, Rodrygo, Raphinha.

On The Bench: Lucas Perri, Bento, Renan Lodi, Bremer, Nino, Douglas Luiz, Joelinton, Raphael Veiga, Endrick, Paulinho, Pepê.

Notes And Storylines

The Fernando Diniz experiment has well and truly blown up. See the banner image on this post? It’s actually wrong. Diniz managed all that in just five games. Aside from the debut win against Bolivia, his management of Brazil has been a mess. They’ve been catastrophically disorganized in defense, nonexistent in the midfield, and unproductive in attack. He’s persisted with a 4-2-4 formation even as it has repeatedly proven to leave the team exposed and render little going forward, and what changes he has made have been too late, too safe, or the dumbest shit you’ve ever seen. We saw the latter on Thursday against Colombia. Brazil were, unsurprisingly, overrun in the midfield and absurdly vulnerable on the counterattack, but for once, things actually were kind of clicking going forward. Diniz had the team playing the way I always would in FIFA 10: just instantly looking to move the ball forward as quickly and vertically as possible, and this paid off with Gabriel Martinelli’s first Seleção goal after barely three minutes. Unfortunately, in real life you run into the limitations of human players not being able to magnetically pass the ball 40 yards straight to their teammate’s feet, not to mention opponents that are a fair bit smarter than an AI opponent powered by a PlayStation 3 processor. So while this approach did create some very nice attacks, few of them resulted in great chances, and almost every one that broke down allowed Colombia to get deep into our territory. In the end, we were outshot 23-12. Still, this approach was working reasonably well, at least going forward! Particularly after halftime, we were continuously hitting Colombia on the break and creating decent-looking opportunities. And then Diniz decided to take off Rodrygo for Paulinho.

Now, I’ve been publicly skeptical about Rodrygo for a while—mostly because he always seems to be missing just that little something (usually truly elite athleticism) that would tie together all the disparate aspects of his impressive skillset—and while he was having a solid game, I wouldn’t have called it an especially remarkable one. But the second he came off in the 69th minute, Brazil completely lost the plot. We didn’t register a single shot for the rest of the game, while Colombia had seven, including both of their goals. Much of the problem was that Diniz positioned Paulinho higher and wider than Rodrygo had been, without having anyone move more centrally to replace what the Real Madrid man had been doing in that sector. A truly baffling substitution, and one that managed to make the team worse in every sector of play.

(On a side note, it is wild that Tite never lost a World Cup qualifier. He certainly benefited from only playing Argentina twice across two qualifying cycles instead of four times, but even so, it’s an incredible record. His Brazil often had a frustratingly low ceiling, but it had a very high floor.)

Decisions like that have put Diniz under pressure, and things aren’t getting any easier in Brazil’s next game. We face our archrivals Argentina tomorrow, and the World Cup holders will surely be thrilled at the opportunity to win a World Cup qualifier in Brazil for the first time, so Diniz runs the risk of adding yet another unfortunate achievement to his record (though to be fair: Brazil and Argentina only played each other in World Cup qualifying for the first time in 2002, and this fixture never was played in two World Cup cycles since then, so Brazil’s undefeated streak in home qualifiers is only four games long). To make matters worse, we lost Vini Jr. to injury on Thursday, joining a list of unavailable players that already included Neymar, Casemiro, Éder Militão, Danilo, Caio Henrique, and Richarlison. Even if Brazil were playing well, such a long injury list would make an already difficult matchup significantly more so. On the evidence of the last few games, it might portend something more disastrous.

The two changes to the lineup say a lot about Diniz, little of it good. Most notable is the obvious: it’s still the same approach! Diniz has made a couple of personnel changes but continues to stick with the same 4-2-4, two-midfielders-plus-one-forward-serving-as-a-midfielder-but-not-really scheme that hasn’t worked since his first match in charge. Again, it worked better against Colombia, but it still left us ridiculously exposed defensively, and I can just imagine how easily Lionel Messi will be able to pick out through balls through all the space our back line will give him.

Diniz was asked about this continued preference for four attackers in his press conference today. One of the things he said was:

I don’t see football the way you do, where if you put another player, another midfielder or defensive midfielder, the team will be more protected. I don’t see it that way. Brazil at the World Cup played with a formation like this. Neymar, who’s also a forward, two wingers out wide, one center-forward, and Paquetá, who has more attacking qualities than even Bruno Guimarães. You’re treating the front four like it’s something innovative, which it’s not. What changed is that we have a new way of playing, with more aggression, and the team will keep on adapting, which will take some time.

fernando diniz

I agree with some of what he’s saying here, particularly regarding the aggression—Brazil brought a verve and tempo to the games immediately before the World Cup that was sadly missing from the big tournament itself, and which may well have been the missing ingredient. That said—Brazil’s tactics at the World Cup didn’t work! We’ve been over this! Plus, when you say something like “I don’t see football the way you do”, and then you lose, it makes you look like a self-important dummy. There’s a fine line sometimes between sticking to your principles and being stuck up your own ass.

Anyway. Of Diniz’s two changes, the more positive one is Carlos Augusto coming in for Renan Lodi, which should help defensively. There was a moment in the first half (sadly not present in any highlight videos I could find!) when Luis Díaz absolutely murdered him in a footrace. It reminded me of nothing so much as when Gareth Bale destroyed Maicon in 2010, a pair of games that effectively ended Maicon’s time being considered among the best fullbacks in the world. Lodi is not world-class—he’s never lived up to the promise he showed circa 2019—but this will tarnish whatever reputation he still has. Augusto, hopefully, should be an improvement defensively; if nothing else, he’s taller. But I’m not sure if he’s especially fast either, and he could very well end up being just as exposed as Lodi was.

But this switch also inadvertently exposes another problem. For some reason, Diniz only called up one right-back for these games, Emerson Royal. Yes, some of the obvious options like Vanderson are injured, and Yan Couto didn’t give a great showing in the October games. But surely you want to have at least some sort of backup at every position! Even if you’re not satisfied with your options at right-back, bring in a halfway-promising youngster or even just a warm body from the Brasileirão to give you some security—or an alternative. If Lodi had the highlight-reel bad play from Thursday’s game, Emerson was probably worse overall. He added little in attack and he was at fault for both goals, failing to close down the cross for the equalizer and getting outjumped by Díaz for the winner. And because Diniz didn’t see fit to call anyone else, he’ll be starting again against Argentina.

Questionable too is bringing Gabriel Jesus in for the injured Vini Jr. The glaring issue is that Jesus himself is coming off an injury, one significant enough that Arsenal and Mikel Arteta have been complaining about his callup and doubting that he’d be fit in time. He hasn’t played since October 21st, exactly a month before his slated return. I can’t help but think that rushing him back for such a tough game carries the risk both of re-injuring him and him simply not being close to full sharpness when we really need him. But even if that proves not to be the case, why has Diniz so insistent upon calling him up and starting him? Leaving aside his yearslong record of futility for Brazil, he’s been no great shakes in the games he’s played for Diniz. In four appearances totaling about 150 minutes of game time, he’s registered a total of one shot and one assist. Maybe, maybe, you can make the case that he can play the role Rodrygo played against Colombia, freeing Rodrygo to have more responsibility for scoring. That, or Jesus on the left and Martinelli up top, might be the best case scenario. But I just haven’t seen enough from him in the past, like, four years to warrant this sort of treatment.

Prediction time! I’m not usually this pessimistic, but echoing the thoughts of a lot of others on this blog, we could be in for a historic thrashing. I’m going to predict that Argentina wins this 4-1. Again, this is a measure of how fucked I think this team is right now under Diniz. The results and performances have been so bad that even if the CBF’s party line is true, that Carlo Ancelotti is coming next summer and that Diniz is being given a try until then, I find it hard to imagine that he can survive another loss. (Though if he is fired on Wednesday, that may perhaps indicate that Ancelotti’s arrival isn’t as sure a bet as is being claimed.) In any case, Diniz surely needs not just a win, but a true statement win, to silence even some of the doubters. Diniz has delivered three such statements this season with Fluminense: a 4-1 Campeonato Carioca final win over Flamengo that won him his first title as a manager, a 5-1 mauling of River Plate in the Libertadores group stages, and winning the Libertadores final. The Maracanã was the site of all three. On Tuesday, it may become the site of a fourth, but I can’t help but think it’ll be the site of a defeat that undoes all three.