Now that might have been the spark we needed.

After the loss to Cameroon, I wrote that I expected Brazil to still look tepid in their round of 16 match against South Korea, and that the big, palate-cleansing win we were all hoping for seemed like a distinct improbability. Instead, on the back of a barnstorming first half, we cruised to a 4-1 win with a joyfulness we haven’t often seen from Brazil, especially in World Cup play, for quite some time.

  • This match broke the most unwelcome trends surround Tite’s Brazil in World Cup play. Only two first-half goals in eight games? Never scored more than two goals in any game? Fewest group stage goals since 1978? No better way to put all those in the dust than with four goals in the first 36 minutes.
  • In addition, this was the most goals we’ve scored in a World Cup knockout game since the 1970 final, and the first time we scored four goals in one half at the World Cup since the opening game in 1954.
  • And how about those goals? I’ve noted in the past that, even when not playing particularly exciting football, Tite’s Brazil regularly produces absolutely sumptuous goals. Richarlison has already scored maybe the two best goals of the entire tournament, and Raphinha’s mazy dribble to Vini’s perfectly cushioned shot for the first goal on Monday was almost as good. We scored some pretty nice goals in 2018, but I think the quality of the best goals we’ve scored this year have been even better. And the joy in those celebrations! Not only is it delightful to watch, but it suggests that the players aren’t so tense and under pressure that they can’t find time for some fun.
  • Subbing Weverton on for the final 10 minutes, thus ensuring that all 26 players in the squad got playing time at the World Cup, was a massive flex on Tite’s part, but it also speaks to how he tries to do right by his players. See too the way he joined in on the goal celebrations yesterday. This has backfired on him when he stuck with misfiring favorites for far too long, but it means his players absolutely adore him and are fully bought into his vision.
  • Danilo Will Come Good Island continues to rise from beneath the waves after my dude put in a very solid shift at left-back. However, there are still some questions about the integrity of the seawall. I think it may take another, I dunno, three-ish games to make the necessary reinforcements?
  • For the first time in the tournament, we played a game and none of our players got hurt! Combined with no yellow cards and Alex Sandro’s likely return from his injury, it means we should have all our best players available for the quarterfinal, and that almost nobody is at risk of missing the semi due to yellow card accumulation!
  • Neymar looked way better than I feared he might, considering he was starting so soon after coming back to training! He was a little slow and didn’t press much, but he orchestrated the passing game and took his penalty very well. He’ll presumably be a little sharper on Friday, but hopefully he doesn’t lose the good sense to keep things simple. It’s when he tries to play hero ball that things start getting ugly.

Brazil vs. South Korea

Education City Stadium, Al Rayyan, December 9, 2022

Kickoff: 10:00 AM EST / 12:00 PM BRT / 3:00 PM GMT

US TV/Streaming: FOX / foxsports.com/live; Telemundo / Peacock

Possible Starting Lineup: Alisson, Danilo (Éder Militão), Marquinhos, Thiago Silva, Alex Sandro; Casemiro, Lucas Paquetá; Raphinha, Richarlison, Neymar, Vini Júnior.

Injury and Suspension Report: Alex Sandro (hip) has returned to training and should be available. Alex Telles and Gabriel Jesus are out for the rest of the World CUp. Nobody is suspended.

Discipline Report: Fred, Militão, and Bruno G. all have one yellow card. Yellow cards are wiped clean after this game, meaning that these are the only three players who can be suspended for yellow card accumulation for the rest of the tournament, and then only for the semifinal.

Notes and Storylines

Since winning in 2002, Brazil has exited every subsequent World Cup at the hands of the first European opponent they faced in the knockout stage. If this is indeed a curse, well, we’ve never had a better chance to rid ourselves of it. Croatia are far, far from pushovers, but I certainly wouldn’t favor them over 2006 France, 2010 (or 2014) Netherlands, 2014 Germany, or 2018 Belgium. They’re not nearly as good as they were in 2018, when they swept the group stage and ransacked an (admittedly awful) Argentina; their only win came against a defensively leaky Canada team and they were enormously lucky that Belgium’s Romelu Lukaku was hapless enough to miss a half-dozen or so big chances in the final group stage game. They won a pretty even round of 16 bout with Japan on penalties, but played a draining overtime in the process, whereas our starters essentially only exerted themselves for 45 minutes on that same day. And while they’re tall and have a strong midfield and attack, they’re not an especially pacy team, which at this World Cup has often been the difference between a good attack and not.

Still, there’s plenty of reason to be wary of them. They’ve made themselves hard to beat in all their games, thanks in part to one of the pundits’ darlings of this tournament, the 20-year-old center-back Joško Gvardiol. And in midfield they of course have Luka Modrić, who is still so good and so crafty even at age 37. In fact, as Black Matt pointed out when this matchup started to look like a possibility, he and his Real Madrid midfield partner Casemiro are set for a fascinating duel of wits:

Modric is REALLY smart, so if anyone knows how evade Casemiro’s intentions, it’s him. His movement, his knowing what spaces to occupy and when to go there, is second to none. He’s not going to try and dribble around Casemiro, he’s going to try and outposition him. And when he does have the ball, he’ll probably try to bait Casemiro into fouls or to open up spaces for his teammates in behind him.

Marking Modric is like trying to lasso a fish.

The thing that would make this such an interesting matchup is that you have probably the two smartest midfielders in the world (on opposite sides of the ball) going up against each other…AND each knows the other like the back of their hands due to their history. It’s like watching the two best chess engines in the world calculate against each other 30 moves deep.

Black matt

And Modrić also knows a thing or two about how to counter Vini Jr., Rodrygo, and Militão as well.

Also, if we’re worried about curses, seems to me like tossing a friendly cat out of Vini Jr.’s press conference is a good way to bring one down on us. What were you thinking, CBF press relations guy? At least you could’ve picked it up and put it on the floor gently!

Still, I think we’re clear favorites. Aside from being more talented, we have a significant advantage in terms of rest and physical preparation, we match up a lot better against Croatia in terms of pace and physicality than we did against Belgium four years ago, and, unlike in 2014 or 2018, none of our key players are suspended or injured.

I wrote in my World Cup preview that, if we couldn’t win the whole thing, beating a European team in the knockout rounds and reaching the semifinals (and thus guaranteeing seven games instead of just five) would be a great way to battle-harden our youngsters and relieve at least a little of the pressure on them for 2026. Well, here’s our moment of truth for that, at least. I think we’ll pass with flying colors, albeit by a lesser margin than we beat South Korea. This is the third straight World Cup around which we’ve played Croatia, and the fourth in the last five; we beat them 1-0 in the 2006 group stage, 3-1 in the 2014 group stage, and 2-0 in a friendly just before the 2018 tournament. I think we continue the trend with a solid 2-0 win.