Month: January 2022

Brazil vs. Paraguay

Mineirão, Belo Horizonte, February 1, 2022

Kickoff: 7:30 PM EDT / 9:30 PM BRT / 11:30 PM GMT

Possible Starting XI: Ederson; Dani Alves, Marquinhos, Thiago Silva, Alex Telles; Fabinho, Lucas Paquetá, Philippe Coutinho; Raphinha, Matheus Cunha, Vini Jr.

On The Bench: Alisson, Weverton, Thiago Silva, Bruno Guimarães, Casemiro, Fred, Gerson, Everton Ribeiro, Gabriel Jesus, Gabigol, Rodrygo, Antony.

Notes and Storylines

Ecuador vs. Brazil

Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado, Quito, January 27, 2022

Kickoff: 4:00 PM EDT / 6:00 PM BRT / 8:00 PM GMT

Possible Starting XI: Alisson; Emerson Royal, Thiago Silva, Éder Militão, Alex Sandro; Casemiro, Fred, Philippe Coutinho; Raphinha, Matheus Cunha, Vinícius Júnior.

On The Bench: Ederson, Weverton, Dani Alves, Alex Telles, Marquinhos, Gabriel Magalhães, Bruno Guimarães, Gerson, Everton Ribeiro, Gabriel Jesus, Rodrygo, Antony, Gabriel Jesus, Gabigol.

Notes and Storylines

The biggest question mark surrounding this game, and indeed this whole international break, is this: will we find answers to any of our problem positions? As I discussed in my last post, it’s still not clear that who our best options are at right-back, left-back, center-forward, and central midfield, let alone if Tite’s actually playing them. We may get some answers for two of those in this game. The injury to Danilo has given Emerson Royal a fresh chance to start at RB, and while he hasn’t been particularly impressive for Tottenham, he combined really well with Raphinha the last time he started for Brazil, bringing the best out of the winger in a way Danilo really hasn’t. Up front, it seems like Tite may be settling on Matheus Cunha as his first choice striker, which I agree with on paper: since none of our striker options can score goals consistently, play the one who can do the most beyond scoring goals. But I still think Cunha actually needs to score a goal or two, or at least evidently make it easier for his teammates to score goals, to really cement his case, especially since it sounds like Tite may try some different players against Paraguay next week.

In the other two problem positions, we’re seeing nobody new, a shame when neither Alex Sandro nor Fred has proven to be an exceptional player. Maybe I’ll be proven wrong against Paraguay, but you get the sense that Tite is only trying the new faces he is trying because the regulars in those positions are unavailable, and wouldn’t otherwise.

The other big storyline concerns whether Vini Jr. and Philippe Coutinho can perform for Brazil. Neymar’s injury and Lucas Paquetá’s suspension have given them both a chance to start, and each has a lot to prove. VJ played well as a starter in Brazil’s last game against Argentina, but it was his first truly good performance in a yellow jersey and he still has yet to score his first Seleção goal. He’s not as capable a playmaker as Neymar is, but if he can be the sort of goal threat that he is for Real Madrid, maybe he’ll compel Tite to find a way to play the two of them together in the future. (Tite’s comments on Coutinho playing Neymar’s role suggest he’s already working on it.)

Coutinho, for his part, has struggled immensely throughout his deeply troubled time at Barcelona, but Tite and his staff have always maintained faith in his ability. They believe the Coutinho from Liverpool, the Coutinho who was probably our best player at the 2018 World Cup, is still there, just needing a supportive, functional environment to flourish again. The question is whether that is truly the case, whether leaving the mess that is Barcelona is enough for him to reclaim his form and confidence. Certainly the early evidence from his move to Aston Villa has been very, very good. But I can’t help but feel like starting for Brazil right now might be too much, too soon. He may need more than a couple of games with Villa to truly get back to a headspace where he can thrive week in, week out. And that’s leaving aside his many injury problems in the past two years, which may diminish him even if he’s already back to his best mentally.

As for a prediction, well, Ecuador are having a really strong World Cup qualifying campaign, and this is an away game in the high altitude of Quito, and we struggled a bit for goals in November’s games, even with Raphinha drastically improving the right flank. Still, I’m going to keep faith that Emerson can bring out the best in Raphinha like he did against Uruguay, and bet on the athleticism of Raphinha and Vini Jr. being too much for Ecuador, and predict a 2-0 win for us. Away and at altitude, I think that would be a pretty good result.

Happy 2022, everybody! I was going to whip up a “it’s a World Cup year, what positions does the Seleção still need to sort out?” post, but then I remembered that Tite’s about to call up his squad for the extra round of World Cup qualifiers this month, so I figured I’d incorporate that as well.

First, the important info—Tite’s calling up the squad on Thursday, January 13th; he may call as many as 26 players instead of the required 23; and he’s not likely to call any players based in Brazil since they are just now returning from their end-of-season break. Additionally, Neymar, Richarlison, and Danilo are injured and almost certain to not be called. Our games are against Ecuador (away) on the 27th and then at home to Paraguay on February 1st.

With our place in Qatar mathematically guaranteed, the only thing really on the line in these games is the pride of going through World Cup qualifying unbeaten. (Believe it or not, we haven’t lost a World Cup qualifier since the first matchday of the 2018 qualifiers—a 30-game streak!) But it’s certainly more important to use these games to give some new names a try and find the best options for open spots on the World Cup roster. Tite’s never been one to call up a whole team of untested players, but hopefully we get a healthy crop of new names, or at least some worthwhile experiments that settle down some of our problem positions.

And what are our problem positions? To answer that, I’m going to go through the 11 positions that make up Tite’s typical setup, assess the apparent candidates, and rank them based on how safe their spot at the World Cup seems to be. Locks for Qatar and players Looking Likely to make the cut should be self-explanatory; those In The Mix have a good chance but still face serious competition to win their place; those Outside Looking In have been part of the team in the recent past but appear to have lost favor and don’t have more than a slim chance of returning; and Pipe Dreams are players who aren’t currently in the Brazil picture at all but who I think might have something significant to offer if given the chance.