After a grueling Copa América campaign, we face our toughest foe: a side [checks notes] we beat 5-0 two weeks ago?

Brazil vs. Peru

Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro, July 7, 2019

Kickoff: 4:00 PM EDT / 5:00 PM BRT / 8:00 PM GMT

US TV / Streaming: Telemundo, Globo international feed, ESPN+, FuboTV

Likely Starting Lineup: Alisson; Dani Alves (C), Thiago Silva, Miranda, Filipe Luís (Alex Sandro); Casemiro, Arthur, Coutinho; Everton, Roberto Firmino, Gabriel Jesus.

Injury Notes: Despite the rash of injuries in the second half against Argentina, only Willian is out of tomorrow’s game. Filipe Luís’s fitness is still somewhat in doubt, so Alex Sandro may take his place in the starting lineup once again. If he does, it would be the first time since the World Cup that Tite has used the same lineup in consecutive games.

Storylines to watch:

Which Peru will we get? We stomped Peru in the group stage in a resounding 5-0 win that could easily have been larger. It was a confident, dominating display of the sort we hadn’t seen in tournament play since the 2013 Confederations Cup, but we definitely had a helping hand from the opposition. After we went ahead early, their keeper Pedro Gallese gifted Roberto Firmino one goal and could have done better on Everton’s shot, giving us a 3-0 lead and breaking the Peruvian resistance in the first half-hour.

It’s hard to believe Peru will make it that easy for us this time. While they were very lucky to survive the quarterfinal (they had no shots on target and saw three Uruguayan goals disallowed, then won on penalties), they were a different team against Chile in the semifinal. They took the game to the defending champions from the off, took a 2-0 lead off two defensive errors, and then held on in the second half with Gallese’s help before killing the game with a third goal in stoppage time.

We have to figure that Peru will try the same trick this time, coming flying out of the gates and laying on the pressure—and if they finally break down what has so far been an impregnable defense, they’ll probably sit back and trust that we’ll continue our difficulties scoring against teams that park the bus. But we just faced a more talented Argentina side that tried the same trick, and survived (albeit in a close game). We should be able to hold off even a totally renewed Peru side. Unless…

Injury concerns: We just played a bruising semifinal in which Everton, Marquinhos, Gabriel Jesus, and Willian all came off injured and Alisson needed special treatment afterward. And yet, only Willian has been ruled out of the final. The other four I mentioned are all undisputed starters in this side, when fit. It’s hard to believe that they’ll all be at 100% so soon after hurting themselves in a high-intensity game, and that might not bode well. If any of them are still feeling a little off, it could prove decisive in a crucial 1v1 or shooting opportunity, and if they hurt themselves again and have to come off, it’ll force Tite’s hand substitution-wise, which isn’t ideal. We’ll just have to hope that everything we saw on Tuesday was precautionary, it was all just cramp or something, and our stars will be ready to tear things up tomorrow.

EDIT: It sounds like Marquinhos came off because he was suffering from a stomach bug, which means that he at least shouldn’t be a fitness concern.

A bunch of crazy stats: We could be in store for some unprecedented stat lines, depending on how the final plays out:

  • This is the first time ever that Brazil have made it to a major tournament final without conceding a goal—which, naturally, means that this could be the first time that Brazil win a major tournament without conceding a goal. Will bringing this stat up jinx us? Absolutely. But pin the blame on Globo, who were the ones who published it first.
  • From Peru’s perspective, they could make some real history. The last national team to lose a game by five goals and bounce back to play in the final was West Germany in the 1954 World Cup. Just like Peru, they faced their group-stage nemesis, Hungary, in the final—and in the final, they got their revenge.
  • Ahead of the final, there are fourteen players tied for the Golden Boot. Nobody has scored more than two goals in this tournament, leaving the top-scorer race wide open. Five players in the final—Everton, Coutinho, and Firmino for Brazil, Edison Flores and Paolo Guerrero for Peru—are part of this tie and have one last chance to take the prize for themselves. If none of them score, a further seven would make it a fifteen-way tie if they scored. If nobody gets their third goal, with no tiebreaker, we’ll have enough people sharing the top scorer honors to comprise an entire starting XI plus three substitutions.

A prediction: Since the “Brazil has gone this far without conceding a goal” thing is probably jinxed now, I think we have to factor in a Peru goal—believable, considering their recent improvement and motivation to avenge the group-stage defeat. But we still have more than enough quality to come away with this game, even against motivated opponents. I say Brazil 2-1 Peru.