I T ‘ S F A T E

Brazil vs. Paraguay

Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre, June 27, 2019

Kickoff: 8:30 PM EDT / 9:30 PM BRT / 12:30 AM GMT

US TV / Streaming: Telemundo, Globo international feed, ESPN+, FuboTV

Likely Starting Lineup: Alisson; Dani Alves (C), Thiago Silva, Marquinhos, Filipe Luís; Allan, Arthur, Coutinho; Everton, Roberto Firmino, Gabriel Jesus.

Storylines:

Thin squad: Okay, not that thin. But Casemiro is suspended, his replacement Fernandinho hasn’t recovered from his injury, and Richarlison just came down with mumps and had to be quarantined (the whole squad will be vaccinated after the game).

That leaves Allan as the defensive midfielder, with Lucas Paquetá the only natural mid available off the bench. Allan’s a bit on the short side, but I have more trust in him anchoring the midfield on his own than I do in Fernandinho doing so. And if we must suffer through the Obligatory Suspension Of The One True Defensive Midfielder In The Squad Jesus Christ Why Does This Always Happen Why Do Our Coaches Never Learn, better that we’re facing Paraguay than Colombia or Belgium.

Gabriel Jesus’ goal drought: Had he scored from the spot in the dying moments against Peru on Saturday, Gabriel Jesus would finally have had a goal in a senior tournament to his name. As it is, he’s still only ever scored in World Cup qualifiers and friendlies, and his goalless drought in tournament games is exceeded in recent times only by Hulk’s.

But aside from that, he was really good against Peru! I initially thought Tite had made a terribly foolish move, starting him on the right and Firmino in the center, but he held his own with his speed and strength, and his energetic tracking back helped get the most out of Dani Alves, which helped the attacking play as a whole. Let’s hope his missed penalty didn’t get him too down, and that he can finally score the goal he deserves tonight.

I T ‘ S F A T E: Brazil and Paraguay have now spent an entire decade meeting in the quarterfinals of the Copa América. Only in 2016, when neither team advanced from the group stage, did the two sides not face each other in the next round. In 2011 and 2015, Paraguay beat us on penalties—in 2011 after we outplayed them but failed to break them down, in 2015 after we took an early lead but collapsed as the game went on.

It’s fate. We are destined to do this, dance this same quarterfinal dance, over and over again, until we break the cycle and win one of these dang games. Will it happen this year? Well… Paraguay are, as always, very hard to beat. But they’re also maybe not as dangerous as they’ve been in years past. They’ve passed up many opportunities to play friendlies recently, and of the mere 10 games they’ve played in the last 18 months, they only won one, against Guatemala. They opened the tournament by coughing up a 2-0 lead against Qatar, though they were unlucky not to beat Argentina. In the end, they made it through by the skin of their teeth with only two points from their group.

It all might hinge on which Brazil, and which Paraguay, we get. Will we get the Brazil that couldn’t break down Venezuela’s staunch defense two games ago, or the one that ran riot over Paraguay in Tite’s first game against them? Will we get the Paraguay that couldn’t hold onto a lead against Qatar, or the one that absolutely slaughtered Dani Alves in 2016?

I have faith. This will be the one where we break the curse. But I don’t think it’ll be easy. I predict a 2-0 win, but with the second goal only coming very late on.