Brazil vs. Colombia

Arena Mané Garrincha, Brasília, Distrito Federal, March 20, 2025

Kickoff: 8:45 PM EDT / 9:45 PM BRT / 12:45 AM GMT

US Streaming: ViX Deportes ($8.99/month), Fanatiz ($25 pay-per-view)

Likely Starting XI: Alisson, Vanderson, Marquinhos, Gabriel Magalhães, Guilherme Arana; Bruno Guimarães, Gerson, Rodrygo, Raphinha; Vini Jr, João Pedro.

On The Bench: Bento, Lucas Perri; Alex Sandro, Wesley, Murillo, Léo Ortiz; André, Joelinton; Estêvão, Endrick, Savinho, Matheus Cunha. (Cut: Neymar for Endrick; Ederson for Lucas Perri; Danilo for Alex Sandro.)

Notes and Storylines

So begins the most brutal week of Brazil’s World Cup qualifying campaign. Having drawn away to Venezuela (which felt like two dropped points, as we dominated the first half and then had Vini Jr. miss a penalty) and at home to Uruguay (which felt like a better result given how badly they’d beaten us away a year before), the Seleção remains five points above Bolivia in the race for the last automatic qualifying spot—a cushion that would feel pretty comfortable if not for the fact that we’re about to face Colombia and Argentina, and two losses feel like an uncomfortably possible outcome from those games.

It might not be as bad as all that. The last time we faced Colombia (a Fernando Diniz Special™ of a late collapse about which I’ve already written extensively), the Cafeteros were in the middle of a more than two-year unbeaten streak, dating back to before the 2022 World Cup which they missed. That streak finally ended last July, in extra time of the Copa América final, and it’s safe to say it’s now well and truly over. Colombia have lost three of their last four games and are somehow only one point above us in the table. Of course, that was four months ago—plenty of time for a team to get its shit together again.

Speaking of which, can Brazil get its shit together again? After a promising start, the Seleção under Dorival Júnior has progressively become ever less inspiring, with neither good football nor results coming about regularly, and rarely together. In that context, the CBF’s publishing a pre-list of 52 players a week before the official callup seemed a bizarre change of protocol. (These lists have been reported on before but never officially made public like this that I can recall.) Was it Dorival’s doing, or the CBF’s? A way to show fans that their favorite players were indeed in consideration (unless they’re a left-back, apparently—where were Caio Henrique and Carlos Augusto?), or the same but for disgruntled agents and investors? I’m still not sure what to make of that, but I caught a pretty clear whiff of desperation when our coach called up Neymar the following week, the same whiff that came off pundits in Brazil during his injury layoff whenever they talked about how much he could improve the team, clinging to faith in a player that may no longer exist. I want to write more about Neymar and his hopes of returning to any sort of health and playing form—hopes that, given how he seems to be sliding further into a morass of bad behavior insulated from consequences, only grow dimmer.

(I was going to end that last sentence saying I’d write more about Neymar at a later date, but I do want to bring something up now. Ney’s latest little scandal (well, one of them) is about him supposedly having a threesome with two women who are not his current partner Bruna Biancardi, nor the other woman he had a baby with in between his first and second children with Bruna, while his father throws money around to keep the video evidence from leaking. What I’m wondering is: do we think he’s always been like this? It’s always seemed like he likes to party, but having a kid at 19 also seemed like it calmed him down; Davi Lucca was his only kid for over a decade, and now he’s suddenly out here siring kids left and right, not to mention, correct me if I’m wrong, getting caught fucking around a lot more than he ever was before. Add in his ditching top-level football to take a gigantic paycheck in Saudi Arabia, and his apparent collaboration with one of Jair Bolsonaro’s sons on a scheme to privatize Brazil’s coastline for profit. Maybe the COVID pandemic broke his brain like it did for so many other people.)

But I’ve gotten horribly off track. Neymar was scratched from the squad before it even got together to train, his body still struggling with recurrent injuries after his year-plus out with a torn ACL. If Dorival was seriously thinking about trying to start him against Colombia after eighteen months in which his most challenging opponent was Corinthians in a Paulistão group stage game, well, that just reflects badly on a coach this blog’s commentariat has already taken to calling Doridiot, Dummyval, Doridummy, Doridunce, and probably some others I’ve forgotten.

Indeed, Neymar’s absence may prove to be something of a blessing, as we have Raphinha, Vini Jr., and Rodrygo fit and available together for the first time since the Copa América group stage game against Colombia back in June… a game in which Brazil played horribly. OK, never mind that. This is a fantastic trio of forwards that’s been doing great things all season. Raphinha is a legitimate frontrunner for the Ballon D’Or right now, Vini split last year’s Ballon D’Or and FIFA Best Men’s Player awards with Rodri (though losing the BDO seems like it’s broken his brain a little bit, and he isn’t currently in great form), and Rodrygo keeps doing Rodrygo things, often brilliant, occasionally frustrating, as he’s on track for the best statistical season of his career. I’ll even be optimistic about the prospect of trying to shoehorn them and João Pedro onto the pitch at the same time. As Canteev wrote the other day, it’s absolutely possible to make two wingers work as wide midfielders in a 4-4-2, and this is a group of wingers with the athleticism and work rate for the job.

No, the concern is that it’s Dorival doing the shoehorning. This isn’t even really based upon any reports from the training ground. It’s just a sense that he’ll find some way to totally misread the strengths of his star players. Will Vini be stuck pinned to the touchline a million miles from any support? Will Raphinha be played in a way totally antithetical to the more centralized, always-running role he’s playing for Barcelona? Will Rodrygo be even more starved for the ball than he is at Real Madrid? Then there’s João Pedro, who’ll be used against the physical Colombian defense as a big center-forward, a role he can certainly play, though he hasn’t been terribly much of a goal threat for Brighton this year. Will Dorival use his ability to combine with his teammates and create space and passes to them, or will he just try and use him as a battering ram? Is Pedro the right call, or will we end up thinking that Matheus Cunha, in much better form but more comfortable with his front to goal, should have started instead?

I don’t know how to call this one. It seems like a more favorable matchup than our last World Cup qualifier against Colombia. Our opponents are in worse form, who knows if Luis Díaz can wreck us like he did in that game now that he doesn’t have “win this for my dad who’s in the stands after just having been freed by his kidnappers” levels of motivation1, and James Rodríguez was recently on one, claiming he was better than Zidane, Kroos, Modrić or Xavi. But Díaz can raise his play for his national team just as easily as James can, and, again, Dorival has given us precious little reason to have faith in him. Even many pundits who maintained faith in Neymar’s return seem to have already lost it when it comes to Dorival’s Brazil. So, shrug… guess I’ll call this a 1-1 draw?

EDIT: Oh, I almost forgot! We have a host of players one yellow card away from suspension—so many Globo reported on it. Neymar, Ederson, and Danilo were among them before they were cut from the squad, but that still leaves Vini, Rodrygo, Bruno Guimarães, Gabriel Magalhães, Raphinha, Matheus Cunha, and André. And who do we play right after our historically ugly fixture against Colombia that often results in 3-4 of our players getting yellow cards? Argentina, of course!

  1. Nor will Lucho be able to end Renan Lodi’s career this time. Not that it’ll matter if Guilherme Arana trips and eats shit like he did against Ecuador. Oh, and remember where that header image comes from? ↩︎