Colombia vs. Brazil

Estadio Metropolitano, Barranquilla, Colombia, November 16, 2023

Kickoff: 7:00 PM EDT / 9:00 PM BRT / 12:00 AM GMT

US TV/Streaming: Fanatiz

Likely Starting Lineup: Alisson, Emerson Royal, Marquinhos, Gabriel Magalhães, Renan Lodi; André, Bruno Guimarães; Raphinha, Rodrygo, Vini Jr, Gabriel Martinelli.

On The Bench: Lucas Perri, Bento, Carlos Augusto, Bremer, Nino, Douglas Luiz, Joelinton, Raphael Veiga, Endrick, Paulinho, Pepê.

Notes and Storylines

Once again, a FIFA date lands at an exceptionally busy time for me. I know I always say that, but I really mean it this time! I’m moving in a few days! But there’s a lot to talk about once again! Let’s see if I can speed through the important points.

So: Brazil played like shit last month. The attacking play was incoherent and the defending slack. We drew at home against Venezuela, lost handily away to Uruguay, and the only goal we scored came from a corner routine. Thus far, Fernando Diniz has yet to deliver the revolution we all hoped for. His philosophy may take a while to implement, but you can still build a team that stays competitive in midfield and attacks with purpose in the meantime, and he hasn’t. Now Brazil faces two extremely tough tests this week with no real indication that things will improve tactically. Diniz has announced a lineup that shows he’s sticking with the same sort of 4-2-4 as he did last month: what I once called the “screw the midfield” formation when Tite introduced it at the World Cup. Two holding midfielders and a forward dropping deep to ostensibly function as the creative midfielder does not a competitive midfield make, doubly so with Neymar out. Good as Rodrygo is, I have no faith in his ability to be effective in that deeper role. Then there’s the weirdness of playing Vini in a more central role (only one of he and Martinelli can play left wing, but I’d think Martinelli makes more sense as a center forward; in fairness, Vini has a better goalscoring record) alongside Rodrygo, but at least this is a really, really quick front four that, in theory, should be fun as hell on the break. And Endrick might make his debut! I’m truly doubtful that he’ll be able to come on in a position to make a significant impact, but he should be fun to watch, especially if Brazil have the chance to hit Colombia on the counter.

Since last month, though, Fernando Diniz has enjoyed the biggest triumph of his coaching career, as Fluminense won the Copa Libertadores. (His reaction is pictured above.) But did the win reflect well on his coaching? I mean, I’d say reasonably so. Fluminense scored two goals that relied heavily on the movement and interplay Diniz demands, and there were spells where they controlled the game or turned extreme opposition pressure into deadly counterattacks through long stretches of tight, intricate passing. On the other hand, Flu’s passing game only really began to thrive like that once they already had the lead, and they still afforded Boca Juniors plenty of opportunities, to say nothing of the very slack defending on Luis Advíncula’s equalizer. (Apropos of nothing, enjoy this Certified Edinson Cavani Momento™ from the first half. ) Nor did they dominate the shot chart in the way you might expect.

It certainly wasn’t a display to convince those who’ve already soured on Diniz. Nor might some comments from Brazilian journalists in a discussion our own dude_br shared yesterday. Rodrigo Mattos related a conversation he had with the coach about his calling up so few midfielders. Diniz said that he thinks the lack of midfielders of a certain (Ganso-like) type isn’t just an issue in Brazil, which is certainly true. More interestingly, when asked if he needed a more holding player to control the rhythm of the game, Diniz responded, “what rhythm do you want?” The journalists agreed that he seems to want this more chaotic, vertical style of play. I love the sentiment, if only because that’s how I always won in FIFA 10. But you can’t deny that he really hasn’t delivered this for Brazil yet, and even Fluminense exhibits it in spurts. Plus, even if you embrace chaos, having the ability to slow down the tempo from time to time is valuable. Considering a third midfielder could supply not just that, but defensive protection, it doesn’t seem like bad tradeoff.

As for a prediction: Colombia tend to give us a tough time, and that’s likely to continue given our form. They’ve only conceded two goals through four games, both away to Uruguay. Just denying them another clean sheet might be a tall order considering our only goals since the Bolivia game came from corners. On the other hand, they haven’t been too prolific going forward, with two of their three goals coming in that same Uruguay game. I hate to be pessimistic here, but I think this is going to be a 1-0 loss for Brazil in a pretty ugly grindfest of a game.