Happy 2022, everybody! I was going to whip up a “it’s a World Cup year, what positions does the Seleção still need to sort out?” post, but then I remembered that Tite’s about to call up his squad for the extra round of World Cup qualifiers this month, so I figured I’d incorporate that as well.

First, the important info—Tite’s calling up the squad on Thursday, January 13th; he may call as many as 26 players instead of the required 23; and he’s not likely to call any players based in Brazil since they are just now returning from their end-of-season break. Additionally, Neymar, Richarlison, and Danilo are injured and almost certain to not be called. Our games are against Ecuador (away) on the 27th and then at home to Paraguay on February 1st.

With our place in Qatar mathematically guaranteed, the only thing really on the line in these games is the pride of going through World Cup qualifying unbeaten. (Believe it or not, we haven’t lost a World Cup qualifier since the first matchday of the 2018 qualifiers—a 30-game streak!) But it’s certainly more important to use these games to give some new names a try and find the best options for open spots on the World Cup roster. Tite’s never been one to call up a whole team of untested players, but hopefully we get a healthy crop of new names, or at least some worthwhile experiments that settle down some of our problem positions.

And what are our problem positions? To answer that, I’m going to go through the 11 positions that make up Tite’s typical setup, assess the apparent candidates, and rank them based on how safe their spot at the World Cup seems to be. Locks for Qatar and players Looking Likely to make the cut should be self-explanatory; those In The Mix have a good chance but still face serious competition to win their place; those Outside Looking In have been part of the team in the recent past but appear to have lost favor and don’t have more than a slim chance of returning; and Pipe Dreams are players who aren’t currently in the Brazil picture at all but who I think might have something significant to offer if given the chance.

Goalkeepers

Locks for Qatar: Alisson, Ederson

Looking Likely: Weverton

Outside Looking In: Santos, Everson

This is probably the most settled position we have. We enjoy the services of two top-tier goalies in Alisson and Ederson, even if neither is quite the “world’s best” contender they may have seemed some years ago. Nobody has shown themselves to be a better third choice than Weverton, who certainly isn’t on the level of our top two but has delivered for Brazil when he’s needed to. If it were up to me, I’d consider bringing someone a bit younger as our third choice, to give them some experience for 2026 and beyond, but they’d have to be already at or near Weverton’s level, and nobody immediately comes to mind.

If Brazil-based goalies are indeed unavailable this month, we may be in for a novel pick on Thursday. Behind Alisson and Ederson, Neto seems the obvious choice for a Europe-based goalie. Beyond that, any other name might be a surprise.

Right-Backs

Locks: Danilo

In The Mix: Emerson Royal, Dani Alves

Outside Looking In: Gabriel Menino

Pipe Dream: Vanderson, Dodô

Somehow, Brazilian football has itself a rather appalling lack of quality in the fullback positions, though I suppose right-back has been a particular struggle for years now. Danilo seems to be a lock simply because Tite has been extremely reluctant to give anyone else much time in the role recently, which speaks to how little regard he must have for his options, since Danilo is a fairly safe but also very unadventurous option. Both of the likely backups, Emerson and Dani Alves, are in kind of a similar boat: both have question marks surrounding their performances at club level (Emerson’s had some shaky games at Tottenham; Alves is old, just returned to Europe after two and a half years in Brazil, and before his second Barcelona debut this month, had barely played since last August thanks to disputes with his last club), but were very impressive when given chances for the Seleção. Alves shone in the Olympics and Emerson looked very good when paired with Raphinha against Uruguay.

With Danilo injured right now, I expect Emerson and Alves to get the chance to duke it out to be his backup. Anyone else being called up would be an enormous surprise. I mentioned Vanderson, who seems to have real potential, but he needs more time with his new club Monaco, and Dodô hasn’t played in ages because of the Ukrainian league’s winter break.

Center-Backs

Locks: Thiago Silva, Marquinhos, Éder Militão

In The Mix: Gabriel Magalhães, Lucas Veríssimo, Felipe

Outside Looking In: Rodrigo Caio, Léo Ortiz, Miranda

Pipe Dream: Roger Ibañez, Luiz Felipe

Another position where we’ve got lots of talent and our options are pretty settled. It’s only really the fourth CB spot that seems up for grabs at this point, and if you’re in a position where you have to use your fourth CB regularly during the World Cup, you’re probably not winning that World Cup. Still, our options are pretty good. Personally, I hope Tite continues to show favor to Gabriel Magalhães. It’s best to give that spot to a young player who might grow into a starter in 2026. (And I still think about how Marquinhos was excluded from the 2014 squad in favor of the utterly forgettable Henrique Buss.) If he calls up an extra defender, I’d love to see him take someone like Roger Ibañez or Luiz Felipe and secure their services before Italy tries to poach them, even if they won’t have much chance of making it to Qatar.

Left-Back

Likely: Alex Sandro

In The Mix: Guilherme Arana, Renan Lodi

We at least have more talented options on this flank than we do on the right, but things are still pretty grim. Alex Sandro, like his Danilo, is generally a safe but unexciting pair of hands, but where Danilo has grown out of the worst of his tendencies for defensive ineptitude, Sandro still produces the occasional game where he’s catastrophic from start to finish.

It’s worth remembering that Marcelo is one of the greatest left-backs of all time at club level and always struggled for Brazil, and Dani Alves was the same at right-back until he was far past his physical peak. If we can find lesser fullbacks who actually play well for Brazil on a consistent basis, that may be worth far more than having all-time talents who don’t fit in. I think Arana and Lodi, both of whom are much more exciting going forward, could wrest the two LB spots from Sandro if everything goes well, but that doesn’t seem likely. Lodi still is not starting regularly for Atlético Madrid, and it’s clearly affected his performances for Brazil. Arana seemed to move ahead of him in the pecking order after the Copa América, but only got one chance to play and didn’t seem to convince Tite that he was better than Sandro. Still, for this callup, Lodi is likely to get a nod thanks to Arana still being based in Brazil.

Midfield Destroyer

Locks: Casemiro, Fabinho

Outside Looking In: Douglas Luiz, Bruno Guimarães

It’s hard to categorize the different types of midfielders, so I’m allowing for a little bit of overlap here. The easiest to define is the destroyer, where we have our two picks for Qatar. Casemiro and Fabinho are our guys, no ifs, ands, or buts. Bruno Guimarães and Douglas Luiz seem to be the main alternatives should either be injured, but they have little chance to be called in this particular role otherwise. They’ll appear again in a moment.

Creatively Inclined Deep Midfielders

Locks: Fred

Likely: Gerson

In The Mix: Bruno Guimarães, Edenílson

Outside Looking In: Douglas Luiz, Arthur

Pipe Dream: Oscar

With this category I mean those midfielders who contribute significantly to bringing the ball into the final third despite playing in a fairly deep position, either because they roam box-to-box or because they have a large passing range. Here’s one position where it’s really not clear if Tite is favoring the right candidates. I will defend Fred as being better than a lot of us like to give him credit for, but he does get overmatched in midfield battles a lot due to his diminutive stature and he sometimes plays like he’s in a perpetual panic. Gerson, his other seeming favorite, is technically gifted but doesn’t seem to offer as much on either side of the ball as he should. Edenílson also remains in the mix, maybe because he’s become a Paulinho-like scorer from midfield, but he’s 32 and was never much of a scorer before the past couple of seasons.

None of this would be a problem if these were the best options we had, but it’s hard to argue that they are. I’ve already made my stance clear on Tite’s excluding Bruno Guimarães (though my stance on Gerson v. Fred has shifted since I wrote that piece). Douglas Luiz too is a more consistent performer than Gerson, but even more than Bruno, I think he’s more considered as for Casemiro/Fabinho’s role than this one. Then there’s Arthur, whose ability to evade pressure and keep the ball moving is unmatched in Brazil’s talent pool, but whose injury problems and lack of club form preclude him getting a call from Tite any time soon.

I think there’s a chance we see Bruno get a fresh chance this month, certainly if Tite does call three extra players. He hasn’t been quite as good as he was at the very start of the season, but he’s starting almost every game for Lyon, and with his teammate Lucas Paquetá being a darling of the Seleção right now, I’m sure he’s got people advocating his case to Tite.

Right Wingers

Locks: Raphinha, Antony

Likely: Gabriel Jesus

Outside Looking In: Richarlison, Malcom

Pipe Dream: Rodrygo

Raphinha and Antony both exploded onto the scene in the second half of 2021, playing vastly better than any of our previous stalwarts on the right wing. At this point, I think they’re damn near certainties to make it to Qatar, though there’s a chance Antony will be a little more of a utility player since he’s also proven pretty capable when deployed on the left.

Gabriel Jesus is going to be at the World Cup (I only list him as “Likely” because I don’t know whether he’ll be seen as more of a winger or a center forward), though the emergence of unequivocally better options on the right has rather raised the question of whether he really has any clear role to offer any more. His value as a jack-of-all-trades on the right was rather diminished when Raphinha and Antony came in and immediately offered infinitely more going forward from the same position, and as we’ll discuss in a minute, he doesn’t have much to offer as a striker.

Truly Attacking Midfielders

Locks: Lucas Paquetá

In The Mix: Philippe Coutinho, Everton Ribeiro

Outside Looking In: Claudinho

Pipe Dream: Lucas Moura

This is the fuzziest position I’m trying to define. The most gifted playmaker we have is clearly Neymar, but it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll be used all that much in an attacking midfield role, so he’s listed elsewhere. Paquetá is fantastic and a lock, but he himself might be more of a second striker than a true midfielder at this point. Everton Ribeiro and Coutinho are both more wide players than traditional trequartistas, and even Claudinho, who while we weren’t looking has found some excellent form for Zenit, likes to come in from the left. But I’m lumping them all together because they’re most likely to operate as the furthest forward of the three midfielders, or, depending on the circumstances, the deepest of the four attackers.

Which speaks to part of the issue: is this even a real role in this team anymore? I wouldn’t be surprised if Tite eventually abandons all pretense and just sets up his team with four attackers every game, especially if Vini Jr. proves impossible to keep on the bench behind Neymar. It’s not like Coutinho or Ribeiro contribute much to pressing or marking, arguably less than Paquetá, Raphinha, or Gabriel Jesus do in more advanced roles. It may just make more sense to bring an extra forward or deep midfielder instead. Hell, someone like Fred would probably better in this more advanced role anyway, and then Bruno Guimarães could be brought in to play alongside Casemiro.

That said, Tite and his staff love Coutinho and you have to figure he’ll get another chance this month, but he’s surely skating on thin ice. Tite called him up ahead of Vini Jr. in November, only for VJ to prove so obviously superior after being called up anyway as a last-minute replacement that he didn’t see a single minute on the pitch. For all the potentially game-changing quality Coutinho (and to a much lesser extent Everton Ribeiro) can bring on paper, at some point you have to look at the evidence and see that others have made a much bigger difference in his position than he has.

Left Wingers

Locks: Neymar, Vini Jr.

Outside Looking In: Everton Cebolinha, Richarlison, Malcom

Another position where we’re pretty much locked down. Neymar and Vini Jr. are pretty evidently our two most gifted forwards right now, so only two questions remain. One, can Tite find a way to play them both in the same starting XI? And two, will Neymar’s continued injury problems and general decline be an issue at the World Cup? He’s still the best playmaker we have, but it’s been apparent for a while that setting the team up to channel all the play through him is no longer a good enough attacking strategy in and of itself. Having him be the team’s primary dribbler and its most incisive passer and its most dangerous scoring threat is a problem when he’s lost his explosiveness and his ability in front of goal seems to be fading. VJ can lighten the load, but not if they’re fighting for the same starting spot.

This of course assumes that VJ can replicate his club form for Brazil, for whom he has yet to score his first goal. That’s not a guarantee, but Neymar’s absence through injury should give him two full games as The Man in this team. I wonder who’ll be called up to be his backup? I wouldn’t be surprised if Tite just calls an extra left-footed player (maybe Malcom) to deputize on the left if need be.

Center Forwards

Likely: Gabriel Jesus, Gabigol

In The Mix: Roberto Firmino, Matheus Cunha, Richarlison

Outside Looking In: Arthur Cabral, Pedro

Pipe Dream: Gabriel Martinelli

Hoo boy. For all the attempts to find an answer, this is still the thorniest, most uncertain position in the Seleção, and a solution seems no closer than it did a year ago. Every glimmer of hope we’ve seen has been followed by a red flag. Gabigol put up incredible numbers for Flamengo but couldn’t reproduce them for Brazil. Matheus Cunha impressed at the Olympics but struggled for playing time at Atlético Madrid and remind us of his propensity for blowing easy chances. Richarlison showed glimpses of his potential as a goalscorer all summer only to spend his club season struggling with injuries. Gabriel Jesus started the season very well and then fizzled out into the same drab workhorse he’s been since Pep Guardiola started coaching him. Arthur Cabral’s prolific scoring for FC Basel is tantalizing, but he clearly didn’t impress Tite when given the opportunity.

This month, with Richarlison struggling for fitness and Gabigol out because he’s based in Brazil, I think Cunha’s continued inclusion is pretty well assured, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Firmino gets a fresh shot. (I’m assuming GJ remains a lock in the squad for his work rate if nothing else.) In the longer term, I think we still need to think about what is most important to have in a striker if we don’t seem to have any who can score consistently. GJ, for instance, works really hard but has become particularly inept in front of goal. Gabigol works hard and can finish really well, but he disappears in the box when he doesn’t have space to work with in a way even some of the others don’t. Firmino is technically strong and pretty adept at shooting and hold-up play, but he’s too slow to take advantage of the excellent through balls the likes of Neymar and Bruno G. can deliver.

With that in mind, I still think Cunha is the best option, wary as I am about his propensity for blowing easy chances. Even if he can’t score consistently, he does several things we really need: he combines well with his teammates, he’s quick enough to not slow plays down, and he’s almost better with difficult chances than he is with easy ones. Never underestimate the value of a forward who can occasionally create a goal out of nothing. Richarlison’s physicality and finishing ability put him in a similar boat, but his inferior technique and fitness problems push him down. I’ve included Martinelli as a long shot here because he finally seems to be breaking out for Arsenal, scoring regularly and playing well even when he doesn’t score, and I actually think that on paper, he does a lot of the stuff we need from a center forward. He’s good technically, he can carry the ball forward quickly and beat opponents for pace, and he’s a reasonably good finisher, even if he’s not the biggest physical presence in the box, but I need more evidence that his current run of form is more than just a fluke. Plus, he operates as more of a left winger who drifts reliably into scoring positions, a role he certainly wouldn’t get to replicate for Brazil.

And, of course, there’s always the possibility that we give Paquetá a try up top. If we want Vini Jr. and Neymar to both start, that probably forces Paquetá out of the number 10 role, and while he can do a job on the wing, he’s not displacing Raphinha on the right. Why not have him and Neymar play off each other and swap positions a bit? He’s undeniably a very good finisher and he’s strong and hardworking. Plus, he’s gotten a few tries for Lyon as a false 9. Sure, he’s not super fast, but his first touch often means that he’s quick enough. Plus, isn’t playing a strike partnership a potential solution to our striker problem, so that no single player has to bear the goalscoring load? Why not pair up two players who can both score and create? A second-strike partnership, if you wi…(voice trails off into nothingness as I’m swallowed in a freak snowstorm)