In his piece “The Death Of Basketball”, Jon Bois uses the video game NBA 2K14 to simulate a future in which all basketball talent suddenly dries up and the NBA is forced, year after year, to draft from a pool of short, scrawny, completely useless players, each as devoid of athleticism and technical skill as the game will allow. It takes a while for the change to become apparent; for a few seasons, the horrid new players barely see any action and teams continue as they were with the stars they drafted in the before times. But, inevitably, the cracks soon start to show. The first teams to press the new players into starting roles unsurprisingly slump to historically bad seasons. As the quality of those around them declines, the dwindling group of good, but aging, players who remain begin posting astounding numbers. Desperate teams begin digging forgotten players out of free agency, years after they last played in the NBA. The Atlanta Hawks win an NBA championship. Finally, when the last good player retires, the statistical bottom falls out. Game 1 of the simulated 2034 NBA Finals ends 3-0, after 12 overtimes. Basketball dies an ignominious virtual death.

The current decade in soccer is one of the most wild and unpredictable of all time. Huge teams, from Liverpool to Barcelona to our beloved Brazil, regularly lose games in stunning blowouts. Some, like Arsenal, Manchester United, and AC Milan, have even gone so far as to altogether lose their status as perennial favorites, instead becoming outsiders for European spots or even mid-table teams. Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Robert Lewandowski, Edinson Cavani, Luis Suárez, and Zlatan Ibrahimović are just some of the players who’ve scored 50 or more goals in a season in that time, something no player in a top 5 European league had done since the real Ronaldo in 1996-97 (and that’s only if you count his goals for his national team, which I’ve also done for Cavani). Messi and CR7, who’ve combined to win ten of the last twelve FIFA “Best Player Of The Year” awards in its various iterations, are now 33 and 35. The only other two players to win the award in that time were 32 when they won it. (One, Lewandowski, is the youngest member of that “50 goals club” I mentioned.) They beat, respectively, a 33-year-old CR7 and a 35-year-old CR7. With the exception of France, which ended its season early, the top goalscorers in Europe’s big five leagues last season were all 32 or older. Real Madrid’s only reliable source of goals right now is the 33-year-old Karim Benzema. The 39-year-old Ibrahimović is, by a significant margin and despite absences due to both injuries and COVID-19, the top scorer for a resurgent AC Milan that earlier in the season led Serie A for the first time since 2014.

Everything in the world of soccer is perfectly fine, in other words. There are plenty of other encouraging signs, like COVID-19 ravaging the club game and a dozen top teams attempting to form their own relegation-free breakaway league. (OK, joking aside, the immediate collapse of that one was fucking hilarious.) Keeping with this trend of soccer being perfectly fine and us living in not-at-all depressing times, we Brazil fans have been able to enjoy a rather noteworthy year in which most of the players we’re interested in have…

Well, let’s just drop the act. It has not been a good year, whether for Brazilian players or the Brazilian game. Brazil’s rampant COVID outbreak has ravaged the domestic game and even forced CONMEBOL to scrap a round of World Cup qualifying, and abroad, most of the Brazilians we care about, especially those who play in attack, have had… what’s the word? Crap seasons.

In this post, I’m going to go over a few of those attacking players, starting with the ones who actually have done some good work, and even made themselves known, this season. But just like the year 2020, it’s only going to get worse from there.

Raphinha

Raphinha has been this season’s pleasant surprise and, at times, only bright spot for Seleção fans. He certainly wasn’t on my radar when at Rennes or Sporting, but he’s proven to be one of the standout performers for Leeds United this season and, I’d have to think, a lock to get onto Tite’s teamsheet before long. His style of play reminds me very much of a left-footed Philippe Coutinho, capable of audacious passes from the wing or impressive goals when cutting inside, and to boot, Marcelo Bielsa’s trademark lunacy has blessed him with stamina that Coutinho has never had. With Coutinho likely out of the Copa América, Raphinha seems like the most obvious choice to take his place.

Claudinho

Brazilian league best XI. Best new player in the Brazilian league. Best midfielder in the Brazilian league. (Joint-)Top scorer in the Brazilian league. Best player in the Brazilian league. Claudinho racked up all these awards in the 2020 season, along with 18 goals and 6 assists, 11 and 5 of them in a stellar back half of the campaign that lifted Red Bull Bragantino from relegation fodder to 10th. There’s no doubt he’ll get called up ASAP, but he’ll have two major questions hanging over him when he does: 1) Can he produce like this at a higher level than the Brasileirão, especially when he’s unlikely to be the focal point of the team? 2) Does the fact that he’s only emerging at age 24 indicate that last season was a fluke, and that if he doesn’t regress to the mean, we can’t expect much further improvement from him?

Lucas Paquetá

Paquetá’s redemption arc has been one of the few truly heartening Seleção storylines this year. After a miserable two years in Milan that seemed to paint him as yet another in this decade’s long line of flops, Lyon signed him for cheap last summer and he rapidly repaid their faith, functioning as a hard-working midfielder whose skill with the ball makes him a huge asset when escaping pressure and building plays. More recently, he’s returned to the attacking form that made him such an exciting prospect at Flamengo, notching six goals and five assists since the new year. In between, he managed to work his way back into the Seleção picture when, after only getting in the squad because other players were cut because of injury, he came off the bench and salvaged an eye-gougingly bad team performance against Venezuela by providing some actual creativity and incision.

If there’s anybody with an obvious path to getting in the Brazil starting XI, it’s probably Paquetá. We lost much of the 2010s to multiple Brazil coaches’ infatuation with Paulinho, a profoundly limited midfielder except for his eye for goal. Paquetá is Paulinho’s height, is currently scoring at about the best rate Paulinho ever managed in a major European league, is similarly hardworking in defense, but is a vastly more talented footballer who can actually pass and dribble. With Raphinha looking like a decent option for Coutinho’s likely-vacant role, this somewhat wishful Copa América lineup actually looks pretty plausible. (But I’ll bet Emerson ends up doing the Olympics instead.)

Gabigol

It’s weird to not have more to say about Gabigol, considering he’s now scored 27, 43, and 27 goals in his last three seasons, respectively (and that’s with him missing about a third of the Brasileirão in 2020). He’s a guy who’s certainly deserved a serious try with the Seleção for a little while now, but I can’t shake the feeling that he just isn’t what we need at striker, that he’d be a sort of cul-de-sac, poaches-goals-but-little-else number 9 like Fred was, and that ended up failing us the second Fred lost form and fitness. But we can’t know for certain unless he’s given a try, and 28 minutes against Nigeria in 2019 is not enough of one.

Let’s also talk about Gabigol’s Flamengo teammate Pedro, who, when he took over as the starter during Gabigol’s lengthy injury absence last season, showed the sort of prolific form that briefly made him seem like the striker we’d been missing. A shot with Brazil initially seemed promising, as he put in a bright cameo against Venezuela, only to get hurt in training before the next game, miss a couple games for Flamengo, and ultimately lose his starting spot and his form. He scored 21 goals in the 2020 season, but only three came after that injury, and thus far in the current season, he’s only started in the state championship, hampered in part by further injuries.

Marinho

And here’s where things really start to go downhill. I don’t really want to spend too much time on Marinho, but his prolific 2020 warrants his inclusion. I think it’s quite likely that he would’ve been called up had the March games ended up happening, but it would’ve been largely unwarranted. The big reason is simply that he’s 30 and has never consistently played at the level he showed last season, which was only the second time he’d ever scored more than 10 goals in all competitions. But even leaving that aside, I don’t think that what he produces on the pitch warrants his inclusion in the Seleção, even in these dire times. He’s a fun player, no doubt! But when the chips are down, his abilities and decision-making have a tendency to abandon him, often quite comically. But Santos have plenty other players worth keeping an eye on, whether for the short-term (John, João Paulo, Lucas Braga) or the longer term (Kaio Jorge, Marcos Leonardo, Ângelo, etc.) Let’s speak of Marinho no more.

Vinícius Júnior

Vini has become an increasingly frustrating figure the longer he’s stayed at Real Madrid, as his evident gifts as a footballer crash against his total lack of composure under pressure. For all his impressive dribbling (when he doesn’t screw it up) and undeniable athleticism, you just can’t count on him to put the ball in the net, or even set up a teammate, when it counts. This season, this got so bad that Karim Benzema, the striker he’s supposed to be supplying, accused him of “playing against us”.

But then the past few weeks happened. Behind the scenes, VJ has supposedly been working hard on his finishing (though I find it hard to believe that he and Real have just now realized that this is a problem), and perhaps that’s behind his huge, decisive performance against Liverpool in the Champions League quarterfinals this month. But it seems to me like that’s not the whole story. Vini also seems to be dribbling with more confidence, taking on opponents more regularly rather than checking back like he often tended to do when in space. And even when he’s not scoring, it seems like Real have begun setting up to better put him in scoring positions, letting him use his speed to make runs in behind and receive defense-splitting passes. Against Barcelona, just days after that big Liverpool game, I saw Real targeting VJ with the same sort of ball over the top that had led to his first goal against the defending English champions. Perhaps he’s invested in himself, but it also seems like Zinedine Zidane has reconsidered how to get the most out of him, and it seems to be paying dividends already.

Rodrygo

Until very recently, it seemed like Rodrygo would be the most successful product of Real’s Brazilian shopping spree. He didn’t get as much playing time as VJ, but he seemed to form a stronger connection with Karim Benzema, which paid off with a healthy pile of assists alongside the occasional decisive goal. A hamstring injury in late December put him on the sidelines for two months, though, and he’s been a little more subdued since he came back. Still, I don’t think we should be too worried, and it may well be that once he finds his old form, we can look forward to him combining with the revitalized VJ on the regular.

Neymar

The man continues to be utterly frustrating. He’s produced some of the most magical play of his career (look at that assist to Marquinhos against Bayern Munich) and paired it with some of the dumbest. Almost half of his career red cards have now come since he moved to PSG, as he regularly gets into spats with opposing players who, in fairness, often try to hack him down. When he’s not getting himself sent off, he’s often getting hurt, because in addition to playing in a league that has collectively put a target on his back, his club’s medical department seems to be totally inept. Despite that, all indications are that he will renew his contract to cover pretty much the rest of his top-level career even if he stays perfectly healthy, which I can’t help but interpret as him choosing money over his future as a player. That thought in itself is a little unfair, because he’s formed a devastating partnership with Kylian Mbappé and PSG certainly have the resources to flesh out their clumsily assembled squad and become a proper football team if the highers-up could ever get their heads out of their asses, but it’s not hard to see this relationship resulting in a bunch more embarrassing red cards and a career-shortening injury or two.

Matheus Cunha

Oof, this one hasn’t worked out super great. I thought moving to Hertha Berlin was going to let Cunha really break out and establish himself as a prolific number 9 option, but it hasn’t really happened. 8 goals and 8 assists in 25 appearances is hardly a terrible stat line—it’s better than Roberto Firmino has managed—but I was really hoping for something a lot better, as evidenced by that screenshot from my Twitter. It doesn’t help that Hertha aren’t a very good team, and are currently in serious danger of being relegated, but is it unrealistic to expect that a star striker be capable of keeping them a little farther out of the muck?

Richarlison

I’m not sure how to explain Richarlison’s season under Carlo Ancelotti. Despite Everton’s clear improvement with the new coach and signing of James Rodríguez, and even though his strike partner Dominic Calvert-Lewin has enjoyed a banner year, Richarlison has regressed by any available metric. He’s scored fewer goals and missed more big chances, and he’s creating fewer chances than his teammates. He even seems to be doing less defensive work. My vague dream of seeing him as a striker for Brazil was maybe always a bit far-fetched, but now that his development as a goalscorer has stalled over the past couple seasons, it really seems quaint, and makes me worry about whether Tite will continue to try and shoehorn him, Gabriel Jesus, and Roberto Firmino into Brazil’s attack.

Everton Cebolinha

Cebolinha’s move to Benfica seems to be going decently, but that feels like a bit of a disappointment. Five goals and 10 assists between the Portuguese league and the Europa League isn’t bad at all, but it often seems like he goes several games between making a goal contribution, especially recently (he only just recently scored his first goal of 2021), and he’s turning more and more into a bench option rather than a regular starter. Some of the other players I’m writing about would kill to make the sort of impact he has, but it’s not hard to feel like he’s not living up to the promise he showed at the 2019 Copa América, for example.

Gabriel Jesus

Is it just me, or are Manchester City just an utterly joyless team this season? They’ve traded a lot of their attacking verve for a stifling defense, and have ended up marching to the Premier League title on the back of a string of inevitable-feeling 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, and 3-1 wins. At least the City sides of old, though they would often shut off and go into cruise control after going three or four goals up, could be relied upon to put seven or eight goals past some poor team at least once or twice a year. By my count, this year’s team have scored 4+ goals in just seven games so far this season, compared to 15 in each of the past two seasons.

Enter Gabriel Jesus, who just doesn’t seem to have a clear place in this amorphous, all-consuming blob of a team. He’s actually putting up pretty okay numbers goalscoring-wise, considering that he’s getting a lot fewer shots and scoring chances this year (despite averaging more minutes per game!); he has far fewer big misses than he did last season, for example, and is actually scoring about as many goals as his expected-goals figure predicts for the first time in his career. But it seems like City don’t need him to score goals, or even to get particularly close to goal, to keep winning games, and considering he already seemed to be stagnating in past seasons, surely it’s time for him to take a chance at some other club, even a smaller one, where he can carry more responsibility.

Roberto Firmino

All that really needs to be said about Firmino is that after years of regularly matching or outperforming his xG figures, the past two seasons have been the worst of his career in terms of converting chances. Per understat.com, he should have scored 27 Premier League goals in that span; he has 15. His numbers this season are marginally better than last, but whatever rut he entered in 2019, he has yet to leave it.

Bet he still starts for Brazil in June!

João Pedro

Playing for Championship side Watford means it’s easy to make excuses not to watch João Pedro, but his numbers aren’t super encouraging either. Just nine goals this season isn’t a great haul for someone who plays up top, especially in the second tier, though for much of the season it was enough to make him Watford’s top scorer. (Somehow this club won promotion to the Premier League for next season.) There is plenty of cause for optimism, though. He’s only 19, he’s been a regular starter despite his inconsistent goalscoring form, and he’ll be back in the Premier League next year… though that last one may end with Watford finding a more reliable forward to replace him.

Gabriel Martinelli

Since bursting onto the scene in the first few months of 2020, Martinelli has had a tough go of it. After the COVID pause, he seemed to have lost the favor of coach Mikel Arteta at Arsenal, and then missed several months after hurting his knee in training. He impressed upon his initial return from injury only to limp off after a scary challenge in a game against Manchester City, and though he returned quickly, Arteta has been even more reluctant to use him ever since, much to the chagrin of not only us, but the entire Arsenal fanbase. Sure, Arsenal have plenty of depth in attack, but Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been checked-out recently and Willian kept coming off the bench ahead of Gabriel even during his rut of just one assist between late September and late February. Recently, Arteta gave Gabriel his first start in almost three months and he scored, so maybe he’s rounding a corner with both his post-injury form and the manager.

Paulinho (not that one)

Sadly, after tearing a cruciate ligament last June just as he was beginning to get game time for Leverkusen, the 20-year-old is still out, with no clear indication as to his return.

Philippe Coutinho

Coutinho’s return to Barcelona has not been a happy one. A handful of early goals and assists trickled off as he became more and more of a bench player before a meniscus injury sidelined him completely. He hasn’t played in 2021 and it’s unlikely that he’ll even be available for the Copa América—but why would we want him there after so much time away?