It’s a re-rematch, and this time, the stakes are (checks notes) way lower!

Brazil vs. Peru

L.A. Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, September 10, 2019

Kickoff: 11:00 PM EDT / 12:00 AM BRT / 3:00 AM GMT

US TV / Streaming: Pay-per-view only (post stream links in the comments and save us all $25)

Likely Starting Lineup: Ederson; Fagner, Éder Militão, Marquinhos, Alex Sandro; Casemiro, Allan, Coutinho; Neymar, Roberto Firmino, David Neres.

Available On The Bench:

Goalkeepers: Weverton, Ivan.

Full-backs: Jorge, Dani Alves.

Center-backs: Thiago Silva, Samir.

Midfielders: Fabinho, Arthur, Lucas Paquetá.

Forwards: Richarlison, Vinícius Júnior, Bruno Henrique.

Notes and Storylines:

You’ve already seen it in the expected lineup: initial reports are that Tite is back on his bullshit. Globo says he’s only making a handful of changes to the starting lineup that faced Colombia. One of the likely changes is very welcome: Éder Militão is being slowly phased in for Thiago Silva, a necessary measure given that we can’t count on the 34-year-old Silva being a mainstay in the future. Two more are kind of pointless: the fact that we’re testing a replacement for the 36-year-old Dani Alves would be great, if his replacement were anybody but Fagner, who is a middling right-back and a known quantity (he played a whole World Cup, don’t forget!) It’s nice to see Allan get more time, but taking out Arthur feels counterproductive. Yes, he struggled once again against physical opposition on Friday, but given how important he is to the team’s passing play, perhaps it’s time to see whether he can be given more cover (i.e. by replacing Coutinho with the tougher Lucas Paquetá) rather than just yanking him after a game where he struggles.

Lastly, David Neres replaces Richarlison, which is just not terribly exciting. Neres is a good player, but I can’t see him substantially improving the play on the right wing. His technique is better than Richarlison’s, but the latter’s athleticism lets him dominate opponents in a way Neres can’t match. We might at least get some clarity on an issue I began noticing in the Copa América: Richarlison tends to be Brazil’s best attacking player when played on the right (in large part by virtue of that physicality), but Brazil’s attack usually plays very badly when he’s on the field. Is he the problem, or is he rising above his sputtering teammates? If the attack plays better with Neres in it, we might have an answer.

But back to my larger point. Even with Neymar’s return and the absences of Alisson, Everton, and Gabriel Jesus, there will be five players in the lineup who also started in the Copa América final against this same opponent. This is our third match against Peru in three months, which would seem to be the perfect excuse to throw caution to the wind and try some new faces or ideas. Fabinho, for instance, surely deserves to be tried in Casemiro’s spot, particularly given how bad the latter has been about accumulating yellow cards in recent games (six in his last nine Brazil caps). Lucas Paquetá could’ve been given a chance to wrest the number 10 spot away from Coutinho. Tite could have given Vinícius Júnior his Seleção debut, perhaps trying Richarlison or Neymar in the middle as a result. Hell, given how atrocious Alex Sandro was against Colombia, Jorge could’ve had a golden opportunity to stake his claim as Brazil’s left-back of the future. Instead, we get three fairly rote changes, one experiment that might bear some tactical significance, and no debutants. Neres might be the only one “getting his due” from all this: I believe this will be his first time starting for Brazil on his preferred right side.

Of course, these complaints come with a grain of salt. Tite just led Brazil to a very convincing Copa América victory without Brazil’s best player, which makes a decent case that his approach is working. But he has a rare window of opportunity to try some new things before World Cup qualifying starts next March. There’s no harm in trying something outside the box now. If it blows up in his face, better now than when three points are on the line.

Anyways, some other, smaller storylines:

Neymar will tie the great Ronaldo with his next goal for Brazil, and should he manage the feat tonight, he will have done it in 99 games for his country, which is remarkably close to the pace Ronaldo managed. He scored his 62nd goal in his 96th cap, and ended his career with 98 appearances for Brazil.

Beyond making history, I have some more practical questions about what we’ll see out of Neymar against Peru. First, he visibly grew into the Colombia game as he shook off the cobwebs of his long injury layoff; does that mean he’ll be on his game from the start tonight? Second, Tite is rumored to be mulling over whether to play him through the middle, but with Coutinho once again starting tonight, are we ever actually going to see the coach make this seemingly obvious change? Finally, Neymar has never scored more than one goal in a game under Tite, and while I have no particular expectation that this game will break that trend, it does seem like the sort of strange streak that needs to be broken. Should it happen tonight, Neymar will leave Los Angeles with only Pelé ahead of him on Brazil’s all-time scoring charts.

Tite is finally thinking of Roberto Firmino as a false 9. After a long, strange period of insisting that the Liverpool man could work as a target man, Tite finally seems to have realized that he works better in a different system, and has begun fiddling with the setup to make it happen. Against Colombia, it didn’t amount to much other than nobody being in the box at crucial moments, but perhaps it needs some time.

Having said that, I’m not sure that you can pin all of Firmino’s struggles as Brazil’s number 9 on his being misused. As good as he can be in moments, he always seems to be out of sync with his Brazil teammates, to a degree where he can appear to be several seconds behind everyone else. He had two particularly oblivious moments against Colombia: first, when he blocked a perfectly-placed Neymar shot even though he was looking right at it; second, when the ball fell to him twelve yards out and, rather than take a presentable shot, he squared it five yards behind Richarlison (who was offside anyway).

One other note of minor interest is that Fagner cited Atlético-MG’s Guga, who’s with the U-23 squad, as potential competition at right-back. Maybe there is hope in the position.

Prediction: Peru will be hungry for a better showing after shipping eight goals against Brazil over the course of the Copa América, but I think we’ll once again keep them at arm’s length. Given Tite’s propensity for going into cruise control in friendlies, I think we’re in for another one of those classic Frustrating 2-0 Wins™. I say Neymar ties Ronaldo but does not pass him just yet.

In Other News…

Last night, we also saw the Brazil U-23s face Chile, in a game I planned to include in this preview, but I was waiting for concrete news on the starting lineup for the Peru game. Anyways, they won 3-1, in another enjoyable and encouraging showing. They again played well going forward, though there were a few long stretches where they invited a lot of Chilean pressure. Here are the highlights:

(Who is the guy who shows up at the start of all Brazilian soccer highlights to hawk some pyramid scheme? What’s his story?)