Tag: Club World Cup 2025

Last December, Botafogo rolled in to what had been known, in years past, as the Club World Cup, having survived a brutal gauntlet of games. Two draws after the year’s last international break had left them tied with Palmeiras with three games to go in the league and a suddenly winner-take-all clash between the two up next on the calendar. They handily beat Palmeiras in Rio, but four days later they had to be in Buenos Aires for the Copa Libertadores final, a product of CONMEBOL restructuring the tournament in 2017 to conclude far later in the year than the previous July-August range. Once again, they handily beat Atlético-MG in that game—something of a shock given that they went down to ten men after just 30 seconds—then returned to Brazil for their final two league games, each just four days after the previous game, each against top-six teams still fighting for a Libertadores spot next season, still needing to win them both to be assured of the title. Botafogo won them both, securing their first Brasileirão title since 1995 to go alongside their first Libertadores trophy ever, and their reward? Fly to Qatar and play Pachuca of Mexico, this time just three days after their last game, in the newly rechristened Intercontinental Cup. The reward for the winner? A match against Al-Ahly of Egypt just three days after that, all for the ultimate prize: the coveted showdown between the best club in Brazil and the best club in Europe.

Did I mention that those two draws after the international break were also three days apart, and thus that Botafogo’s game against Pachuca was going to be their seventh in just 22 days, all of them carrying unbelievably high stakes for the team and thus making it hard to rest any of their regular starters? Did I also mention that Pachuca came into the match having not played a single game in over a month? Perhaps we shouldn’t have been surprised that Botafogo lost handily after falling apart in the second half.

But then again…

We were guaranteed one Brazilian club in the Club World Cup quarterfinals, but a second seemed far from certain. That the second one ended up being Fluminense might be the biggest surprise of all.

Fluminense vs. Al-Hilal

Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida, July 4, 2025

Kickoff: 3:00PM EDT / 4:00 PM BRT / 7:00 PM GMT

Quick hits: Perhaps Fluminense’s win over Inter Milan wasn’t quite as big an upset as it initially felt like it should be. I stand by my general thoughts before the round of 16 that Flu aren’t nearly as good a team as Flamengo. But while Inter might have just reached the Champions League final, not only did they get blown out in that game, but they spent the Club World Cup dealing with an injury crisis so severe that they sent four players home after the group stage. Bayern Munich may have lost to Inter in the Champions League, but they’re generally healthier right now and are historically much more of a club that you’d expect to show up consistently for any given game.

Brazilian clubs have been flying the flag for non-European teams at the Club World Cup. All four entrants made it out of their groups, Flamengo and Botafogo by securing two of the only three wins over European clubs by the rest of the world. Of the other non-Europeans, only Inter Miami and Monterrey have joined them in the knockout stages. Here are your matchups:

Palmeiras vs. Botafogo

Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, June 28, 2025

Kickoff: 12:00PM EDT / 1:00 PM BRT / 4:00 PM GMT

Quick hits: This is probably the best matchup on paper, simply because as an all-Brazilian affair neither side is the significant underdog that Flamengo and Fluminense will be. That, and these two clubs have a history of epic showdowns in recent years. There was Botafogo’s unbelievable collapse from 3-0 up in 2023, which kicked off one of the most spectacular title meltdowns I’ve ever seen, as they choked away a 13-point lead so hard that they didn’t even finish second, they ended the season fifth. The next year, they almost did it again in the Copa Libertadores round of 16, leading 4-1 after 85 minutes of the second leg only to come within a well-spotted handball of throwing the win away. Last November, Botafogo finally won comfortably, a crucial step towards securing the title they had thrown away the year before.

One of these teams will make the quarterfinal against the winner of Benfica vs. Chelsea, and on paper I’d say it’s likely to be Palmeiras. Botafogo may have engineered one of the greatest upsets in recent soccer memory when they beat the newly crowned Champions League winners on the second matchday, but the underlying stats from their group stage are pretty grim. In terms of expected goals, they got trounced, 2.31 to 6.35, and even in their game against the Seattle Sounders they gave up almost double the xG they created. Their strategy against PSG and Atlético Madrid was to defend compactly and hope to strike on the counter, and between Igor Jesus’ deflected goal and PSG’s 4-0 thrashing of Atleti, that was enough to put them in a position to advance on goal difference with anything short of a three-goal loss to the Spaniards on the final matchday.

Still, they’ve been springing surprises so far, and I’ve seen some warning signs from Palmeiras. All tournament long they’ve kind of looked like they don’t know how to shoot, particularly in their first game against Porto where they were the better team but had to settle for a scoreless draw. Add to that how easily Luis Suárez carved them up in the final group game (and that they lost Murilo with one L in the process) and there may be some vulnerability here.

Flamengo vs. Bayern Munich