This is the moment of truth for this team.

Brazil started off the Women’s World Cup on the right foot, with a 4-0 stomping of Panama for the team’s biggest World Cup win since 2007, and Ary Borges marking her World Cup debut with the first Brazilian hat-trick in the competition since… okay, only since Cristiane in Brazil’s opening game four years ago. But the real cherry on top was her assist for Bia Zaneratto’s goal, which is sure to instantly go down as an all-time great Brazilian goal:

Say what you will about the heartbreaking way Brazil’s men’s World Cup campaign ended last year, and the way the women’s campaign could still very much end this year, we’ve been absolutely spoiled for stellar Brazilian World Cup goals in the past year. But now things get a lot harder.

I don’t know if you’ve looked at the bracket, but the two teams who advance from Brazil’s group will face the two teams that advance from Group H in the quarterfinals. One of those teams will surely be Germany. On the evidence of their 6-0 hiding of Morocco in their first game, they will win their group, meaning we face them in the round of 16 if we place second in ours. Shouldn’t be an issue, right? Maybe it wouldn’t if we hadn’t been drawn in a group with France—because in women’s football, Brazil has never, ever beaten France. 11 games, six losses, five draws. Things could be looking fairly grim after tomorrow’s game.

However! In a shocking twist, France could only manage a 0-0 draw in their first game against Jamaica. Jamaica held them at bay, the French missed some clear chances, and as a result, if we can just draw with France tomorrow, a win against Jamaica in the final group game will guarantee us the top spot in the group and, most likely, a round of 16 matchup with Colombia, Morocco, or South Korea, rather than Germany.

I know at some level we should probably welcome the opportunity to face Germany. The dynamic on the women’s side is a little different than on the men’s side, where any prospective matchup with a top European team has carried the (now very justified) fear that quality opposition will expose Brazil’s tactical shortcomings. For the women, I think it’s a little more straightforward. We can talk about Brazil as contenders for the World Cup title, but… I don’t really think we are. In retrospect, Abby Wambach’s extra-time equalizer in the 2011 World Cup quarterfinals effectively ended Brazil’s status as a powerhouse of the women’s game before we’d even managed to win a World Cup or Olympic gold. Since then, Brazil have played in six knockout round games at World Cups and Olympics, and Thaisa’s equalizer against France in the round of 16 four years ago remains their only goal in those games. (I’m not counting the 2016 bronze medal match in which Bia Zaneratto scored a late consolation goal.) Taking that 2019 game against France to extra time, even though we ultimately lost, felt like a respectable World Cup showing. Things could certainly be different this time. This is Pia Sundhage’s first World Cup in charge of Brazil, and she’s certainly a vastly better coach than Vadão was. But even she couldn’t get Brazil past the quarterfinals in the Olympics two years ago.

But if there’s one thing that could make me change my tune, it would be Brazil finally showing that they can beat the sort of teams they’ll need to beat to make it deep into the knockout stages. They have one right in front of them, and wouldn’t you know it: Jamaica may have exposed some shortcomings in this French side; France now need to win this game outright more than we do; and their captain and star center-back, Wendie Renard, might still be shaking off an injury. The stars might be aligning for Brazil. We might avoid an even harder game in a week’s time if we can just beat France tomorrow. Twelfth time lucky?

Brazil vs. France

Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, Australia, July 29, 2023

Kickoff: 6:00 AM EDT / 7:00 AM BRT / 10:00 AM GMT

Possible Starting XI: Lelê; Tamires, Rafaelle, Lauren, Antonia; Adriana, Luana, Kerolin, Ary Borges; Debinha, Bia Zaneratto.

I’ll leave you with the only thing I could possibly leave you with: Marta’s amazing speech after that loss to France four years ago.