What happens when a stoppable force meets a movable object?

Brazil vs. Chile

Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Santiago, Chile, October 10, 2024

Kickoff: 8:00 PM EDT / 9:00 PM BRT / 12:00 AM GMT

US Streaming: Fanatiz

Squad:

Goalkeepers: Ederson, Bento, Weverton (replaced Alisson)

Fullbacks: Vanderson, Danilo, Abner Vinícius, Alex Telles (replaces Guilherme Arana)

Center-Backs: Marquinhos, Gabriel Magalhães, Lucas Beraldo (replaces Bremer), Fabrício Bruno (replaces Éder Militão)

Midfielders: André, Bruno Guimarães, Lucas Paquetá, Gerson, Andreas Pereira (replaces Vini Jr.)

Forwards: Raphinha, Savinho, Endrick, Igor Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli, Luiz Henrique

This is the headline clash of this matchday in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying: a high-stakes meeting between two recent powerhouses each trying to move beyond the aging superstars who carried them for the last decade. Unfortunately for that billing, both these teams just absolutely suck shit right now. Those of us on this site have thoroughly documented just how unfathomably bad Brazil has been since Tite resigned after the 2022 World Cup, and complained extensively about how Dorival Júnior’s tenure has so thoroughly distanced itself from rails it would make Robert Moses proud, but at least we have won some competitive games recently. October 12, 2023 was Chile’s last competitive win, and only win in World Cup qualifying so far; if they cannot win on Thursday, they’ll officially pass one year without before reaching next Tuesday’s matchday.

But let’s have our now-monthly recap of how bad Brazil is right now. First of all, the team has been ravaged by injuries: in addition to the five players who had to be cut from the squad, the likes of João Pedro, Estêvão, Richarlison, Pedro, and Neymar weren’t fit enough to be selected to begin with. But Dorival has in turn chosen a grab bag of out-of-form nobodies in Europe and mid-tier Brasileirão performers—Danilo, Abner, Arana, Telles, Beraldo, Fabrício Bruno, Gerson, Luiz Henrique, Igor Jesus—over seemingly superior options playing regularly at a higher level like Dodô, Murillo, Alexsandro Ribeiro, Samuel Lino, Caio Henrique, Joelinton, Éderson, Douglas Luiz, or Matheus Cunha.

Worse still, every time Dorival gets his hands on this team, they seem to get more listless in their play and tactically aimless. Only a lucky deflection on a Rodrygo 25-yarder against Ecuador saved September’s round of qualifying from being a total disgrace. Against Paraguay four days later, having gone behind early to a moment of magic from Diego Gómez, Brazil resolutely proved that if luck didn’t bail them out, they couldn’t produce any magic to do the job instead. Dorival flung on more attackers into the same reckless 4-2-4 that every one of Brazil’s recent coaches has tried and only ever sort of seems to work, it didn’t particularly work, and Brazil didn’t much threaten to tie up the game. Dorival’s squad selection this time—only calling up four midfielders initially before finally bringing in Andreas Pereira after Vini Jr. got hurt—indicates that he has learned nothing and is only going to commit harder to the 4-2-4. So does his apparent intention to move Lucas Paquetá deeper—a move that, to be fair, has worked before, but why not try it within the structure of a proper three-man midfield? It reeks of what Tite tried in Qatar, when he paired him with Casemiro, a player much, much more capable of anchoring the midfield than André or Bruno Guimarães—and then it worked… okay? not especially well? right up until we encountered a team with an actual midfield and it resolutely didn’t. (And the ways in which it didn’t work essentially killed Brazil’s ability to create chances and offensive pressure, i.e., exactly the thing Brazil’s already struggling to do.)

Anyways, I will be busy on Thursday with some plans that, on current evidence, seem like they’ll be infinitely more fun than watching Brazil play. If I can make time for the game, I will, but this is as pessimistic as I’ve been in a while about the watchability of a Brazil game. I dunno, maybe the balance will be better without Vini Jr. and Raphinha, Savinho, and/or Endrick can thrive as a result. But I’m envisioning a thoroughly unpalatable 0-0 draw. Both teams’ misery will continue, and the calls to fire Dorival will only deepen.