I’m traveling all weekend, so I may not be able to give more of a match preview than this. But given that this is the first we’ll be seeing of this team under Carlo Ancelotti, maybe it’s better to wait and watch and come back with our takeaways afterward. With any luck, I’ll write up something separate ahead of the Paraguay game, but for now I’m putting them both here.

Brazil vs. Ecuador

Estadio Monumental, Guayaquil, Ecuador, June 5, 2025

Kickoff: 7:00PM EDT / 8:00 PM BRT / 11:00 PM GMT

US TV/Streaming: Fanatiz ($30 pay-per-view)

Possible Starting XI: Alisson; Vanderson, Marquinhos, Alexsandro, Alex Sandro; Casemiro, Bruno Guimarães, Gerson; Estêvão, Richarlison, Vini Jr.

On The Bench: Bento, Hugo Souza; Beraldo, Carlos Augusto, Danilo, Léo Ortiz, Wesley; Andreas Pereira, Andrey Santos, Éderson; Antony, Gabriel Martinelli, Matheus Cunha, Raphinha (suspended for one game).

Brazil vs. Paraguay

Arena Corinthians, São Paulo, June 10, 2025

Kickoff: 8:45PM EDT / 9:45 PM BRT / 12:45 AM GMT

US TV/Streaming: ViX Deportes ($8.99/month)

Notes and Storylines

I only have time for some quick hits ahead of my trip, but:

  • These are two very tough games on paper. After we beat them at home with the help of a big deflection, Ecuador began a now-seven-game unbeaten streak in which they’ve only conceded one goal, climbing all the way to second in the CONMEBOL qualifying table. Paraguay have done them one better: after a horrible Copa América (in which we beat them 4-1), they’re now eight games unbeaten (including beating us in Asunción).
  • But the Ecuador game, at least, might be a little easier than feared. Whereas in all five of our previous World Cup qualifying games in the country since the turn of the century took place 9,000-plus feet above sea level in Quito (we won one, lost two, and drew two), this time for whatever reason we’re playing in the port city of Guayaquil. (If anyone knows why Ecuador agreed to this, let me know; they’ve hosted other teams this cycle in Quito so it can’t be just a “you can’t play at altitude” directive.
  • Six points clear of seventh place in the table and with four rounds left to go in World Cup qualifying, it is very possible that we can secure our place at the next World Cup this week, which would free up Carlo Ancelotti to do a little more experimenting against Chile and Bolivia in September.
  • What do we think of Ancelotti’s reported player selection? Does his selection of Gerson represent a stamp of approval from an actually competent coach, or is he already losing it? Gerson did make a decent case for himself against Colombia, though that was mainly because the team got much worse after he had to be subbed off.
  • Then there’s Alex Sandro and Richarlison. Maybe Carlos Augusto arriving late to training because he was busy with the Champions League final counts against him? Richarlison would seem to be the choice with more obvious upside, but he’s coming off two and a half very rough years of injury troubles and mental health struggles. He’s been working on himself, but he’s going to have to start showing that he’s truly overcome his troubles.
  • Still, Ancelotti looks like he’s going to start with three bona fide, actual midfielders. The last time that happened was… hmm. Do we consider Lucas Paquetá an actual midfielder? If not, the Mexico friendly a year ago (Andreas Pereira, Douglas Luiz, Éderson) was the last time, and more to the point, the only time for some years beforehand. Does Paquetá count if Neymar is also starting and taking point on playmaking duties? What if Everton Ribeiro is also starting? He was going to start the Argentina game that got canceled in 2021, and he started alongside Arthur and Douglas Luiz against Uruguay in November 2020, but if Paquetá isn’t a true midfielder, surely he isn’t either. That pushes us back to Douglas Luiz – Casemiro – Coutinho from the October 2020 games, but Coutinho also got plenty of “more a forward than a midfielder” complaints over the years.

    Alright, I’ve already pushed this to the point of absurdity, but I think I’ve got it. November 20, 2018—a starting midfield of Allan, Arthur, and Bad Paulinho. Yes, Bad Paulinho was also “not really a midfielder”. But he also clearly, primarily, really only ever played in midfield, so surely he counts. (If he doesn’t, send it another month back, vs. Saudi Arabia, when we started Renato Augusto, Casemiro, and Fred… ah, fuck.)
  • Estêvão seems like he’s going to get his first Seleção start with Raphinha suspended. Exciting! Or maybe scary! Is he ready? Ancelotti tried something in training that had him sitting in the hole behind Vini and Richarlison; will we see that in practice? (I hope so!)

Shit, I need to finish packing. Enjoy the games, I guess!