I never write as much as I want to. I always have a whole pile of ideas I think would be fun to work on, and then between the demands of everyday life, the time-consuming process of getting from “I should write something with this free time I have now” to actually getting into a rhythm and writing more than a few words, and the frequent desire to just do something else with a free evening, most of them never leave the little list I have in my notes app. Somewhere in that sentence is an explanation for why I never wrote a Copa América postmortem, or an attempt to figure out Brazil’s current depth chart in each position, or a breakdown of interesting Brazilian transfers that might have flown under the radar. Or, to phrase those as questions: Would Rodrigo Muniz have helped at the Copa América? How good is Rodrigo Muniz, really? Is Rodrigo Muniz the most interesting Brazilian striker flying under the radar?

(To answer them in order: Probably not, still seems like a flash in the pan to me, and depends on whether you think Brenner meant to do this.)

Anyways, today’s topic is going to be Dorival Júnior’s squad selections for this month’s World Cup qualifiers.

Brazil vs. Ecuador

Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil, September 6, 2024

Kickoff: 9:00 PM EDT / 10:00 PM BRT / 1:00 AM GMT

US TV: Telemundo

Likely Starting XI: Alisson, Danilo, Éder Militão, Gabriel Magalhães, Guilherme Arana; André, Bruno Guimarães, Lucas Paquetá; Rodrygo, Vini Júnior, Endrick.

On The Bench: Ederson, Bento; William, Marquinhos, Lucas Beraldo, Wendell; João Gomes, Gerson; Lucas Moura, Luiz Henrique, Estêvão, Pedro (no wait nevermind), João Pedro.

Okay, there may have to be a bit of a Copa América postmortem in here. Brazil’s quarterfinal exit from the tournament was pretty disappointing, with the team playing very badly in two decisive games against Colombia and Uruguay, conceding more shots and more expected goals in both games than they could muster themselves. Before the tournament, I’d praised Dorival’s squad selection as “about as good as you can hope for”, as it really did bring together the most promising and in-form players in the talent pool for the most part. Even so, the shortcomings in that selection played a huge role in doing the team in. The lack of quality in the fullbacks really hampered Brazil’s buildup play. Dorival’s preference for João Gomes, a scrappy but rather chaotic midfielder, probably contributed to the disarray and disorganization we saw in that part of the field. With Richarlison injured, Dorival opted for the 17-year-old Endrick and unproven Evanilson as his two strikers, only to end up trusting neither and starting Rodrygo up top—all of which may well have contributed to Brazil’s difficulty scoring goals in every game except against Paraguay. Certainly it would have been nice to be able to turn to Evanilson when Brazil were searching for a breakthrough goal against 10-man Uruguay and could really have used a big man in the box—yet Dorival only brought him on in the 87th minute.

This month’s games represent Dorival’s first chance to correct for the mistakes he made at the Copa, and instead his squad selection suggests he’s gone straight off the deep end. While retaining much the same core group of starting players, he purged almost the entire supporting cast in favor of players currently or until very recently based in Brazil. Gone are Bremer, Douglas Luiz, Andreas Pereira, Éderson, Evanilson, Gabriel Martinelli, Pepê, and Raphinha; in their place are André, Gerson, Luiz Henrique, Pedro, and Estêvão. (Savinho and Yan Couto were later cut due to injury and replaced by two more Brazil-based players: Lucas Moura and 2016 Olympic gold medalist William.) Add in Bento, Endrick, and Guilherme Arana, who all remained from the Copa squad and either still are based in Brazil or just left for an overseas club this summer, and that’s nearly half the squad.

And of course, there’s nothing wrong with Brazil-based players in theory. You can even call it a great sign for the health of the league that clubs are able to set their sights higher and repatriate the likes of Luiz Henrique, who is still very young and has enjoyed decent success in Europe (not to mention European players of some repute, like Yannick Bolasie, Martin Braithwaite, and, perhaps, soon Memphis Depay). But that doesn’t change the fact that there are still better alternatives for almost all these players playing in Europe (Raphinha’s omission seems especially nonsensical after he got a hat-trick of goals and another of hockey assists over the weekend), and perhaps more egregiously, that these new selections really don’t address the weak points in the team. Dorival called up exactly the same four fullbacks that so underwhelmed at the Copa before Yan Couto had to be replaced, and I find it hard to imagine William is better than the likes of Vanderson. In midfield, okay, André might suit the team better than João Gomes, but even then, it’s hard to say he’d be better than Douglas Luiz. Pedro probably had the best case for being an improvement at his position, as a more reliable big man up top than someone like Evanilson, but he tore his ACL in training today, so it’s a moot point. And the Brazil-based players left on the bench don’t exactly inspire confidence that some clever substitutions can salvage a game that isn’t going Brazil’s way.

Again, here are some of the (fit) Europe-based players Dorival left off this team in this turn to Brasileirão stars: Samuel Lino. Vanderson. Carlos Augusto. Casemiro (okay, he might have truly gone off a cliff). Douglas Luiz. Éderson. Andreas Pereira. Raphinha. João Pedro. Matheus Cunha. Gabriel Martinelli. (And this doesn’t include any center-backs, since Dorival picked four Europe-based ones.) Hell, even amongst Brazil-based players, someone like Good Paulinho might have been a better pick than Luiz Henrique or Lucas Moura. (Watch him be named Pedro’s replacement… EDIT: Never mind, Dorival called up João Pedro instead, which is surprising for the speed with which it happened and for him not being based in Brazil.) At least Estêvão is a genuinely unbelievable talent, possibly the most impressive Brazilian at his age since Neymar, but as we’ve seen very recently with Endrick, incorporating such young players into a team is always going to come with its growing pains, and right now this team is enough of a mess that both of these teenagers could end up saddled with the absurd pressure of trying to prop up a team that otherwise just isn’t fucking working.

So why did Dorival make these picks? I don’t have any particular insider knowledge, but here are a few theories I have, of varying plausibility:

  • Dorival genuinely thinks these Brazil-based players are better.
  • Or he was otherwise so disappointed by all the Europe-based players he coached at the Copa that he figured he’d go in the entire opposite direction.
  • He could be subscribing to the idea that since the European club season started just a couple of weeks ago, all those players aren’t as match fit as those who’ve been playing for their Brazilian clubs since late January. This is a rationale I recall Globo often ascribing to Tite around this time in the football season.
  • He could be subjected to pressure from other interests in Brazilian football. I noted earlier that the Brasileirão is getting a little more ambitious with its player signings, and part of the way they could be hoping to not just project strength but attract other Brazilians in their primes back from Europe is to show that they can still get called up to the Seleção while playing at home. There are plenty of players in the squad who are playing in Brazil after having spent time in Europe: Guilherme Arana, Gerson, Lucas Moura, Luiz Henrique, William.
  • He could be caving to this pressure as a way to throw a fit: “You want me to call up more Brazil-based players, Ednaldo? Fine, then you can see firsthand how useless they are.”

There’s a funny disconnect that goes on here: Brazilians watch all these Europe-based players play badly in a yellow shirt and wonder if their local team’s best player, the one they’ve watched every week and often in person, couldn’t do a better job. But when those players get called up, they can’t help but agonize about how their absence will cost their club. It’s an absence exacerbated by Brazil’s overstuffed football calendar that keeps the games coming during the international break, but now Flamengo fans are going to be without Pedro for six to nine months either way. And for what? Was he even going to play anyway before he got injured? (It sounds like he was indeed going to start, but it’s a valid question for any such player these days.)

In any case, let’s spare a couple of sentences for our opponents on Friday, Ecuador. They’re… well, they’re not as good as I’d thought right now, actually. They did give Argentina a tough time in their Copa quarterfinal, missing a penalty before tying the game late and nearly winning it at the death, but otherwise, their results haven’t been too impressive when not playing at altitude in Quito—and this game is being played in Curitiba. You know, it feels weird to say, especially after having spent like 1500 words shitting on Dorival’s player selections, but I’m feeling kind of an optimistic vibe for this one. This feels like the sort of game where Dorival should (important keyword) just be able to give everyone a fairly straightforward game plan, fire them up, and trust them to execute it, much like his first two games against England and Spain. Then again, as our own Yousuf Minty observed the other day, it kind of seems like the team has played worse the more time Dorival has had to work with the players, so maybe we’re in for another step backward.

You know what, I’m just going to cover my ears and hope I’m entertained on Friday night. How’s that?