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Brazil vs. United States

Parc Des Princes, France, August 10, 2024

Kickoff: 11:00 AM EDT / 12:00 PM BRT / 3:00 PM GMT

US TV: NBC, Telemundo

You can pinpoint the exact moment Brazil lost their place among the top tier of women’s soccer teams. It was when they let Abby Wambach equalize for a 10-woman USA team in the final minute of extra time in the quarterfinals of the 2011 World Cup. Brazil, who had made the last three major finals in women’s soccer—twice in the Olympics and once in the World Cup—lost on penalties and would not reach another final for the next thirteen years.

Against all expectations, that final is tomorrow.

I doubt anyone expected this before the tournament, when Brazil had come off a humiliating group stage exit in last year’s World Cup and hadn’t seen too much of an uptick in results since under new coach Arthur Elias. Those expectations would only have further lowered when Brazil were drawn into a tough group that included Spain, last year’s World Cup winners, and Japan, who absolutely clobbered Spain in the group stage. They would have sunk through the floor after Brazil gave up two goals in second half stoppage time to lose (deservedly, it must be said) to Japan, and then lost to Spain after Marta got herself (deservedly) sent off, and would barely have improved when the USA’s win over Australia allowed Brazil to just sneak in, by a single goal’s worth of goal differential, to the knockout stage as a third-placed team. Even the surprise quarterfinal win over France wouldn’t have raised them much; it was a really strong and gritty display built on the back of some very high-quality defending and goalkeeping, but I still thought it would be an uphill battle to even get a medal. After all, Brazil’s first chance at securing a medal would be a rematch against Spain.

But then we blew the doors off them. Brazil were unrecognizable from the team that hadn’t even managed a shot against Spain in the 45 minutes before Marta was sent off a week earlier. They came in with a plan to pressure Spain’s defensive weaknesses and counterattack quickly, they got a huge slice of good fortune when that pressure paid off in a Spanish own goal just six minutes in, and they took the game to Spain relentlessly from there. Even a handful of big-time misses and some late Spanish momentum couldn’t keep Brazil from building up a 3-0 lead and eventually securing a 4-2 win. It reminded me of nothing so much as the men’s team’s evisceration of Spain in the 2013 Confederations Cup: a stunning demolition of Spain’s traditional possession-oriented style that felt like it reset the whole power structure of international soccer (even if the men’s team ultimately fell woefully short of asserting itself as the new top dog).

There’s so much credit to go around. It’s often hard to tell whether a Brazil women’s team coach is doing well until these intercontinental tournaments, since Brazil are by an outrageous distance the best team in South America, but Arthur Elias showed up with the tactics to win these last two games, and his more questionable player selections (he left out the likes of Cristiane, Debinha, Bia Zaneratto, and Ary Borges) have proven wise. The entire defense has been impressive, even in the games Brazil lost, and close to impeccable in the last two. Lorena is the best goalie I can remember seeing for the women’s team. Gabi Portilho, with her one Seleção goal at age 29, seemed like the strangest of choices up front, but now she’s scored two of the most important goals in Brazil’s recent history in the space of the last week.

But now Brazil need to be the underdogs one more time. The United States has been the final boss of women’s soccer for practically the entirety of its existence at the professional level, and one that has often undone Brazil. Brazil has won just four of the 42 matches between the two sides, a worse record than against any other opponent except France (against whom we’ve played only 13 times). Among those myriad losses are that shattering 2011 defeat I mentioned above, as well as both of Brazil’s previous appearances in the Olympic gold medal match. This current USWNT side is perhaps not as terrifying as some of its predecessors, having also had a disappointing World Cup last summer and needing extra time in both of their knockout games. But they look like they’re on the right track, and they’re still the gold standard and the clear favorites. And, frankly, even having to settle for a silver medal would feel like a miracle given where I thought this team was not even a week ago.

But there’s nothing wrong with hoping.

Lastly, we must talk about Marta. Her red card suspension is finally over, so she is free to play in what is almost certain to be her final game for Brazil at this level. But there will be serious questions about whether she should start. She created both of Brazil’s goals in the group stage (and scored one ruled out by VAR), but it’s hard to deny that the team has played better in her absence.

I’m thrilled that Marta will wrap up her Brazil career with one more Olympic medal, no matter what her involvement. But perhaps her playing a limited role would be the most poetic sendoff. As she herself said after Brazil’s World Cup loss to France five years ago, “This is what I’m asking of our girls. There won’t be a Formiga forever. There won’t be a Marta forever. There won’t be a Cristiane. Women’s football depends on you to survive.” What could be more fitting than Marta’s long-awaited triumph coming at the hands of a new generation proving that they really, truly don’t need Marta forever?