HOLY SHIT

Brazil vs. Spain

Stade de Lyon, Lyon, France, August 6, 2024

Kickoff: 3:00 PM EDT / 4:00 PM BRT / 7:00 PM GMT

US TV: USA, Telemundo

Would you look at that? Having never managed to beat France in 12 tries, and with crucial losses to France in two of their last three major tournaments, and with Marta out suspended because of her red card in the last match against Spain, Brazil gritted their teeth and made it thirteenth time lucky. Lorena, who’s quickly proving to be the best goalkeeper I’ve ever seen play for the Brazil women’s team, saved her second penalty of the tournament, the defense dug deep and held firm otherwise, France missed some excellent chances, and then with 81 minutes played Gabi Portilho pounced on a defensive mix-up to put Brazil through to the semifinals. It’s just the second time Brazil has reached a World Cup or Olympic semifinal in the last fifteen years, after they made three straight finals at the 2004 and 2008 Olympics and 2007 World Cup.

But even that doesn’t tell the whole story of how significant this win was. Look at Brazil’s record in World Cup and Olympic knockout games after 2008:

2011 QF: 2-2 vs. United States, lost on penalties

2012 QF: lost 2-0 vs. Japan

2015 R16: lost 1-0 vs. Australia

2016 QF: 0-0 vs. Australia, won on penalties

2016 SF: 0-0 vs. Sweden, lost on penalties

2016 bronze medal match: lost 2-1 vs. Canada

2019 R16: lost 2-1 vs. France in extra time

2021 QF: 0-0 vs. Canada, lost on penalties

2023: Didn’t even make the knockout stages

Brazil had amassed a truly grim record of attacking futility in these crucial matches. Believe it or not, Gabi Portilho’s goal on Saturday was the first time Brazil took the lead in one of these games since that ill-fated game against the USA in 2011, and even then they never actually led until extra time! Heck, this was only Brazil’s third goal, period, in the eight knockout matches since that game.

It’ll still be an uphill battle from here to win a medal. Next is a rematch against last year’s World Cup winners, who in last week’s game had a crushing edge in possession and shots even before Marta’s red card. From there, it’s on to either a USA side that seem to be finding their footing again after a disappointing World Cup, or a German team that actually do seem to be beatable (they lost 4-1 to the USA last week), but surely would still be the favorites.

Even the other two seem to have some cracks in their armor. Spain spotted Colombia a 2-0 lead in their quarterfinal, and the USA were deeply underwhelming against vastly inferior opposition against Zambia in their opener, reminiscent of last summer’s underwhelming debut against Vietnam which heralded some deeper problems. And all Brazil need to do is win one of these next two games to send off Marta with a medal. Winning both, given Brazil’s recent tournament record and general record against the consensus top teams, would be one of the most stunning upsets in the history of women’s soccer. But, again, there’s nothing wrong with hoping.

And speaking of Marta, she remains suspended for one more game, pending an appeal by the CBF, but the win against France means Brazil will play two more games in Paris, and she will get one more final act. She will get to play for a medal.