Uruguay vs. Brazil

Estadio Centenario, Montevideo, Uruguay, October 17, 2023

Kickoff: 8:00 PM EDT / 9:00 PM BRT / 12:00 AM GMT

US TV/Streaming: Fanatiz

Likely Starting Lineup: Ederson, Yan Couto, Marquinhos, Gabriel Magalhães, Carlos Augusto; Casemiro, Bruno Guimarães, Neymar; Vini Jr, Rodrygo, Gabriel Jesus.

Bench: Alisson, Lucas Perri, Emerson Royal, Bremer, Adryelson, Guilherme Arana, André, Gerson, Raphael Veiga, David Neres, Richarlison, Matheus Cunha.

Notes and Storylines

Unfortunately, I can pretty well repeat what I wrote before Thursday’s game against Venezuela. Fernando Diniz still has yet to repeat his debut performance against Bolivia. Since that game, Brazil’s offensive cohesion has vanished, scoring just two goals across the next two games, both from the same near-post corner routine. Venezuela even managed to snatch a draw on Thursday, only the second point they’ve ever managed against Brazil in World Cup qualifying. I mentioned in my preview of that game that for as poor as their overall record is, Venezuela have given Brazil quite a lot of trouble in recent years, but that doesn’t excuse such a poor performance, particularly at home.

Having said that, I want to point to this blog Carlos Eduardo Mansur wrote in the wake of the Venezuela game. Mansur points out, and we should remember, that Diniz is trying to implement a massive shift in how Brazil plays, away from the “positional” style prevalent in the modern game to something less predicated on the players occupying set zones on the field. That’s always going to take time to properly implement, and there will inevitably be missteps and growing pains in the process. Several players themselves remarked after the Venezuela game that they’re still struggling to go against their positional instincts; Bruno Guimarães, for instance, talked about resisting the urge to switch the play to the other flank as positional systems often demand. (Whether it makes sense to avoid switching the play as much as Diniz’s system does is a separate matter.)

Lineup-wise, Diniz is taking a bit of a bolder swing than in in his first three games. Both fullbacks are different: Yan Couto, who replaced the injured Danilo on the right in the first half against Venezuela and gave a good account of himself, now gets the spot from the start, while Carlos Augusto gets a look ahead of Guilherme Arana, who was a bit disappointing in his Seleção return after tearing his ACL almost a year ago. The other change is Gabriel Jesus coming in for Richarlison, which is worth a try because Richarlison really hasn’t been clicking up top, and GJ is a bit quicker and more technical, which should help him interplay with his teammates in tight spaces. Still, refer again to what I wrote ahead of the Venezuela game: I don’t think either GJ or Matheus Cunha is capable of being a goalscoring number 9. Maybe this team doesn’t need that, and in fact another technical player up top is just what we need to open up scoring opportunities for everyone. But keep in mind that Fernando Diniz’s success at Fluminense owes itself at least in part to his Argentine striker Germán Cano, who has put up unreal numbers over the past two years, including six goals in the Libertadores quarterfinals and semifinals this year. Sometimes, you just need a number 9 who can do stuff like this.

Uruguay should prove an interesting matchup, because Marcelo Bielsa is in many ways a more established, experienced version of the tactical innovator Diniz wants to be, and his hire directly after the World Cup means he’s had more time to instill his ideas into this Uruguay team. Of course, Marcelo Bielsa has always struck me as kind of insane, a man so fanatically devoted to his ideas of how the game should be executed that he’ll sometimes let such trifles as “actually getting results” fall by the wayside. I haven’t watched Uruguay under his tutelage, but their start in qualifying has been mixed: they followed up a big win against Chile on debut with a narrow loss away to Ecuador that, statistically, looks like it could have been much worse. They needed a late equalizer to draw away to Colombia on Thursday, but one figures they’ll be better at home. On the other hand, the last time we played in Montevideo, Uruguay were weirdly toothless and we didn’t have to play well at all to earn a 2-0 victory. On the other other hand, that game had no crowd due to COVID restrictions, and it’s hard to imagine a Bielsa team being that limp. I’m going to predict that this game ends in a 1-1 draw, if a less frustrating one than Thursday’s.