Brazil vs. Venezuela

Arena Pantanal, Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, October 12, 2023

Kickoff: 8:30 PM EDT / 9:30 PM BRT / 12:30 AM GMT

US TV/Streaming: FuboTV, Universo/Telemundo

Likely Starting Lineup: Ederson, Danilo, Marquinhos, Gabriel Magalhães, Guilherme Arana; Casemiro, Bruno Guimarães, Neymar; Vini Jr, Rodrygo, Richarlison.

Bench: Alisson, Lucas Perri, Yan Couto, Bremer, Nino, Carlos Augusto, André, Gerson, Raphael Veiga, David Neres, Gabriel Jesus, Matheus Cunha.

Notes and Storylines

Fernando Diniz is on a short leash. After debuting as Brazil’s manager with a very entertaining 5-1 win over Bolivia, his second game in charge against Peru raised some significant red flags. Brazil were incredibly flat and sloppy in possession to boot, and somehow managed to get even more so after halftime. You can chalk that up to it being Diniz’s second game in charge and having only had a week or so to work with the players; more concerning was that he didn’t see the situation as worthy of making changes from the bench. He made one change after 64 minutes, bringing on Gabriel Jesus for Richarlison, but swapping one center forward for another wasn’t going to do much when the ball wasn’t reaching them in useful positions anyway. Yet he didn’t make any further changes until the 85th minute, staggeringly late considering how poorly the team had been playing for most of those 85 minutes. The introduction of Gabriel Martinelli did end up providing the decisive spark, as his direct running won the corner from which Marquinhos headed home a last-minute winner, but it just underscored how strange it was that Diniz hadn’t seen fit to bring him on earlier.

Also concerning was that all of Diniz’s changes were like-for-like swaps, even though it seemed clear that part of the problem was the midfield being overrun. Bruno Guimarães is a much more complete midfielder than someone like Fred or Lucas Paquetá, but Diniz has continued to effectively play just two proper midfielders behind four forwards, much as Tite tried at the last World Cup and which ultimately proved inadequate against a technical and tactically sophisticated Croatia side. Peru gave Bruno and Casemiro fits, but Diniz didn’t think to throw on a third midfielder to shore up that sector of the field. He could have easily given Bruno help in the form of his club teammate Joelinton, but instead he swapped one for the other.

Still, there have been some very good signs from Diniz so far. Most refreshingly, he seems to actually be paying attention to the full array of Brazilians playing in Europe; he’s called up previously neglected names like Vanderson and Caio Henrique, and when injuries waylaid them as well as Raphinha, he took the opportunity to bring a few more players out of obscurity. As a result, Carlos Augusto and Yan Couto earned their first calls, and David Neres is back in the fold for the first time since he was rather misused in the 2019 Copa América.

As far as tomorrow’s game, there’s two concerns I want to bring up—or, actually, they might be the same concern. Firstly, there’s the ongoing striker dilemma. Richarlison hasn’t scored for Brazil since the World Cup round of 16, six games ago, and we saw him in tears on the bench after being subbed off against Bolivia. He said he’d been dealing with some off-field issues, including cutting toxic people out of his life, and promised he would soon find his form again; since then he’s turned things around somewhat, with a goal and two assists in his last four games for Tottenham. Still, he may be keeping his starting spot only by the lack of competition. I keep talking about this in my match previews, because it keeps being an issue! I predicted before the season that Matheus Cunha would score two goals for Wolves, which still seems like a safe bet even though he already has one, and while Gabriel Jesus’ three goals this season have all been very well-taken, he’s still not exactly looking like the authoritative and reliable striker we need.

That said, I noticed something in the Peru game that may be hurting Richarlison. As the commentators pointed out, he spent a lot of time in that game right up against the Peruvian center-backs, trying to make runs in behind, rather than coming a little deeper to try and link up play, which would seem to be more his strong suit. Even so, when he did make those runs, his teammates didn’t really look to find him, like they didn’t trust him or themselves. I’m not sure whether to blame Diniz or the players for that; it’s not like things improved when he was subbed off for the somewhat more mobile GJ. But it may be that the game plan isn’t really suiting the strengths of all the players.

Speaking of which, the other concern, which is really the same concern. Do we really want a system with four forwards and only two midfielders? Especially when it’s not clear whether there’s anyone who can convincingly play one of those forward roles? (And in one of the other roles, Rodrygo hasn’t exactly been lighting it up for Real Madrid, though his two goals against Bolivia will probably keep him a starter for Brazil for now.) Why not drop Richarlison and move Neymar into the hole behind Vini Jr. (who’s back after being injured for the September games!) and Rodrygo, opening a slot for a third proper midfielder to complement Casemiro and Bruno? That’s pretty much what Real have been doing this season since losing Karim Benzema and adding Jude Bellingham. Neymar is a pretty different kind of player than Bellingham (read: five inches shorter) but it’s hard to imagine that he wouldn’t thrive playing in the hole behind two forwards with a ton of club chemistry.

Now, do we have a proper third midfielder in this particular squad? Maybe not, as Diniz made a couple of questionable choices here. But this could be the opportunity for Gerson or Raphael Veiga to finally prove whether they’ve got what it takes to play for Brazil (spoiler: they don’t, probably, but it’d still be nice to see it demonstrated so that they can give up their spots to more deserving players.)

As for a prediction: Venezuela are probably still the second-weakest team in CONMEBOL (and they were dead last, even below Bolivia, in the 2022 qualifiers), but they’ve shown themselves to be surprisingly resilient at times, and routinely gave Tite’s side a fair amount of trouble; our last home qualifier against them was maybe the ugliest performance of Tite’s entire tenure in charge of the Seleção. With that in mind, I think a 2-0 win is a fair expectation, and anything much more than that would be a really nice bonus.