This is gonna be another short one. It’s real simple: after losing to France in the second group game, Brazil essentially must beat Jamaica to make it to the World Cup round of 16. (There is a scenario where Brazil makes it through with a draw, but this depends on Panama pulling off the greatest upset in World Cup history and beating France.) The good news for Brazil is that this should be very doable. We’ve won both of our previous encounters with Jamaica, including a 3-0 win in the group stage of the last World Cup, and while the transitive property doesn’t really apply in football, we won our group game against Panama far more comfortably than they did. That said, Jamaica only need a draw, and they opened their World Cup with exactly that against France.

If we make it through to the round of 16, perhaps the loss to France won’t have quite so dour repercussions as I thought it would. Colombia are in the driver’s seat to win Group E after their stunning win over Germany, and while they’d be a tough opponent in the round of 16, we have a far better historical record against them than the Germans. And hell, even if we end up facing Germany after all, they just keep piling up surprising losses and we beat them in April—they don’t look nearly as scary as they did just a few days ago.

We’re at the point now where every game could be Marta’s last in a World Cup. The queen herself says this game won’t be it. I just really want to see her score in a sixth straight World Cup.

Brazil vs. Jamaica

Melbourne Rectangular Stadium, Melbourne, Australia, August 2, 2023

Kickoff: 6:00 AM EDT / 7:00 AM BRT / 10:00 AM GMT

Possible Starting XI: Lelê; Tamires, Rafaelle, Lauren, Antonia; Adriana, Luana, Kerolin, Ary Borges; Debinha, Bia Zaneratto.