One of my favorite shows of the last five years is called The Good Place. One of the main characters in the show is a philosophy professor named Chidi Anagonye. Chidi is a good man, and a very intelligent one, but he has one fatal defect: The inability to make a decision. Due in part to his own self-awareness, he is constantly in a state of mental turmoil, questioning not just his own actions, but the thoughts behind them, wondering what biases they may be the result of. In one scene, the show flashes back to when he was a kid, tasked with picking his team for a schoolyard football game. It’s an exercise in frustration — Chidi can’t pick a single teammate.
Here’s an excerpt:
Uzo (his friend): “Just pick someone, Chidi!”
Chidi: “Don’t pressure me, Uzo! I have to consider all the factors! Athletic strategies, the fragile egos of my classmates…should I pick a girl as a gesture of equality? Or is that pandering? Or do I only think it’s pandering because of my own limited male point of view? I’m vexed, Uzo, vexed!”
The reason I’m telling you this is because I often feel like Chidi when watching Brazil, especially during the World Cup. I’m constantly questioning my own thoughts and opinions, wondering if they’re based on what I’m seeing, or what I only think I’m seeing, or what I want to see. An example of my thought process:
Brazil’s defense looks so good! Or perhaps I only think they look good because they haven’t actually played against any talented attackers yet. No, they are good – they’re not even allowing any shots. But that’s largely because the other team is ceding us so much possession. Yes, but that’s because we keep winning possession quickly, so the other team never gets a chance to build up a rhythm. On the other hand, none of these teams are possession-based sides, which is why it’s been so easy for us. Nonsense, look how there are always at least two defenders near the dribbler. Sandro supports Casemiro, Marquinhos supports Sandro, Thiago Silva supports Marquinhos, Alisson supports Silva. Yes, but…
Unlike Chidi, I’m usually able to make up my mind about what I think pretty quickly. But the route to getting there is torture.
As I write this, I’m currently undergoing such torture — because I can’t make up my mind whether I should be feeling confident or worried going into the knockout rounds.
Emotionally, I’ll say this: I don’t feel good. I haven’t been that impressed with the way we played, and with a few exceptions, I don’t think most of the players have looked up to it thus far.
Intellectually, however, I think there are some really good arguments for why Brazil fans should feel confident. And therein lies my inner torment.
Anyway, what follows are some loose thoughts on the team and the individual players, written down in an effort to make sense of everything that is happened over the past week.
The Defense
This is the one area where I feel genuine optimism is warranted – although I have two caveats.
What has impressed me most about the defense is how well the back line – plus Casemiro – has played as a unit. Rarely do you see any defender on an island, needing to defend 1v1, let alone 1v2. As I alluded to above in my little stream of conscious monologue, each defender has done a spectacular job supporting and acting in concert with each other. This is why it is been so hard for even a good attacking team like Serbia, or a catch-fire team like Switzerland, to get off high-quality shots. Think of it as a kind of “defence-in-depth,” to borrow a World War I term. Trying to penetrate Brazil’s defense long enough to get off a good shot is been almost impossible, because teams simply can’t create numerical overloads in any area.
This defensive solidity has been especially important for someone like Alex Sandro, who does not have a convincing history of 1v1 defense, yet has hardly put a foot wrong thus far. The presence of his teammates, plus his own good form, means he has yet to be put in any kind of uncomfortable decision where he has to make a choice. (Being forced to make a choice – step or drop, tackle or contain, mark this man or that one, is the last situation any defender wants to be in.)
This is where I have to give Tite some credit. Because, while I’m on record as not being a big believer in Danilo or Alex Sandro, Tite has clearly had this quartet+Casemiro in mind for years now, and it’s paying dividends. There is a level of familiarity and comfort with each other that is so obvious to see, that is a big part of why they’ve looked so good thus far, and that simply can’t be replicated in any other way. It’s like watching a club side cast in miniature.
Given how important a good defense is to winning the World Cup, this is simply Brazil’s best weapon right now.
Now, the two caveats…
The first caveat is that Brazil have yet to be tested by a truly elite attacking side. More importantly, we’ve yet to face any elite wingers. How will Alex Sandro/Danilo fare against Mbappe and Dembele? Saka and, say, Foden? Or even Di Maria and Alvarez?
The second caveat, of course, is that for Brazil’s defense to remain this good, you have to keep the quintet together. (Although maybe with Militão instead of Danilo; more on that anon.) If any of them go out, especially the Casemiro/Silva/Marquinhos trio, suddenly you lose not just individual quality but collective understanding.
Still, strong defenses have been a hallmark of every cup-winning side Brazil has ever fielded, with the exception of 1970. The early signs are promising.
The Attack
One thing hasn’t changed: This is still the deepest collection of genuine attacking talent Brazil has fielded in almost 20 years. But even the sharpest blade is useless in the hands of a poor swordsman…and talent alone isn’t enough.
We’ve already discussed a lot of these issues in the comments of Zetona’s excellent articles, so I’m going to breeze through some of the issues very quickly.
- Without Neymar, we’re fielding a U23 team in attack. Not only have none of them ever played in a World Cup before, none other than Richarlison and Gabriel Jesus have ever played significant minutes in any senior tournament for Brazil before. (Vinicius and Everton Ribeiro got a bit of time in the 2021 Copa America, but that’s it.)
This is a level of responsibility and pressure that most of these guys simply aren’t used to, even if they’ve played big matches for their clubs before. - A lot of painters but no killers. Vinicius, Martinelli, Antony, Raphinha, Rodrygo, and Gabriel Jesus all bring varying levels of skill on the ball and pace on the wings, but none of them have ever been expected to “carry the load” for their respective clubs. (Although that’s starting to change with Vinicius at Madrid.) All are used to being Robin to somebody else’s Batman. The reason this matters is because, in any tournament, no matter how good your team is, there will be times you have to give the ball to your best player and ask him to come up with something. That fact may drive the Guardiolas of the world mad, but it’s true nonetheless. But with Neymar out, who is our best player? Who do you give the ball to when push comes to shove? Scoring by committee is all well and good, but in both football and life, committees are notoriously unreliable when it comes to decisive action.
To win the World Cup, one of two things must happen: Either Neymar comes back (and plays well, neither of which are sure things), or someone else truly steps up to be the “relax, I got this” guy.
(To me, this almost has to be Vinicius, but I think that’s asking too much right now.) - It’s okay to dribble, really. Fast, tricky wingers are great…but only if they play fast and tricky. Right now there’s been a real lack ambition showed by many of our wingers, especially on the right. Neither Raphinha nor Antony have shown much inclination to take their markers on. Vinicius, meanwhile, has been double-marked almost every minute he’s played, and Rodrygo is playing in a new position. Only Martinelli looks anxious to break some ankles right now. But regardless of the excuses, Brazil’s wingers must start being more aggressive with the ball at their feet. Which leads me to the last and most important item…
- Speed of execution. Brazil, quite simply, are playing too slowly right now. While the team’s xG has been solid, goal-scoring chances are mainly being created late in games when things naturally start getting stretched as the opposition starts taking more risks. Through the first three games, Brazil simply aren’t consistently creating any real penetration. Instead, the ball is constantly being circulated around, the ball always being played to feet. Every once in a while the team will up the tempo – and when they do, good things almost always happen – but too often the play will stall or break down and start all over again with the centerbacks.
My diagnosis? Tite is way too freaked out at the possibility of being caught on the counter. And look, it is a risk. But if you actually want to use all the attacking pieces you have, you need to get them playing closer to each other, get them willing to take on their man, carry the ball through the middle, or combine with each other to create a little anarchy within the opposition’s lines and get the defense scrambling. Right now, Brazil’s positioning is too spread out, and their tempo too slow, to do any of this.
I’m not calling for a Nike commercial. This isn’t about the joga bonito mythology. But this team has lots of fast, skillful players who are good at improvising, good at combining, good at making fast, unexpected decisions in tight situations. We need to take more risks at receiving balls between the lines and driving at the opposition, even it means losing the ball in more dangerous places. Could it backfire? Sure. But we know what happens when we wait too long to try.
Sadly, slow, cautious play has been a hallmark of Brazil for the last several World Cups. It’s one thing if that were a winning formula, but it’s not.
Now, in fairness, Brazil have been a little unlucky with their finishing. Against Switzerland, for example, Vinicius could have scored one early. Richarlison was played through on goal but lost the ball with a heavy touch. Against Cameroon, Bruno probably would have scored a hattrick if he had his Newcastle shirt on. So, the good news is that there is no reason to think that Brazil can’t create and finish more chances moving forward.
(On the other hand, before the tournament started, I went back and watched all of the team’s qualifying goals. In doing so, I realized that an alarming amount were scored in one of three ways: Penalties, rebounds, and deflections. Now, there’s nothing wrong with scoring goals this way, but each requires a bit of luck to break your way. What happens when the penalties stop getting called? What happens when the keeper starts catching the ball instead of merely blocking it? What happens when the deflections start going out instead of going in? What happens when your luck dries up?)
Anyway, on to some brief thoughts and a probably-not-accurate-but-hey-it’s-off-the-top-of-my-head rating for each player’s group stage performance:
Alisson: 6
Alisson hasn’t been called to make a save yet, so I probably shouldn’t even give him a rating. I do feel like his mere presence is a comfort to Silva and Marquinhos, though, so I’ll give him a 6. I do worry about his decision-making under fire, but I’m not sure why.
Ederson: 7.5
I thought he played very well against Cameroon. Made some very smart saves, and was always looking to jumpstart the attack with an ambitious pass or a quick throw. Sadly, he’s a weapon Brazil just don’t know how to use. Could do nothing about the goal.
Danilo: 7.5
Just the one game, but he was excellent. Calm in possession, and he read the game well. I notice there’s some new construction on Danilo Will Come Good Island, lots available to buy or lease. Contact Zetona if interested.
Éder Militão: 7
I’m splitting the difference here. I’d give him an 8 for his performance against Switzerland and a 5.5 against Cameroon.
Militão is a terrific athlete. He’s speedy and strong. He’s a good long-range passer. A threat on set-pieces. But he’s still prone to lapses in concentration. Which is why, for the remainder of the tournament, I would keep him at RB. On the wing, his athleticism will probably be hugely important if we make the semifinals and finals and go up against more elite wingers. I think he’s more adventurous with his passing than Danilo, and while he doesn’t overlap much, he’s more willing to carry the ball forward. And his errors are more forgivable than at CB.
Marquinhos: 8
Quietly having a very good tournament. His tackling has looked far more assured than at PSG, and he has dealt with aerial threats without fuss. Pay attention to how often he crosses the halfway line – it’s actually quite a lot. Also looked really good as an emergency LB against Cameroon and might have had an assist or two if his teammates could have finished better.
Thiago Silva: 9
Dominant. Has seen everything, has done everything, and it shows. He knows what you’re going to do before you do. He probably knew every word in the sentence I am currently typing. Has snuffed out countless attacks with nothing but perfect positioning, and his passing out of the back has been spectacular. Tied for Brazil’s best player of the tournament thus far. If this continues, can anyone figure out a way to Door Dash some crow to Tim Vickery’s house?
Alex Sandro: 8.5
Speaking of crow…
Hasn’t put a foot wrong on either end. Doesn’t get forward much, which is to be expected in Tite’s system, but has chosen excellent times to do so. Has been reading the game beautifully, especially in defense. Looks confident with the ball at his feet. Hopefully his injury isn’t serious. This is the best he has ever played for Brazil – not a high bar, to be fair – but how will he look against better opposition? Still, one of the top players of the group stage. (Also not a high bar.)
Alex Telles: 5.5
A little unfair, given he barely played 50 minutes of football…but they weren’t a great 50 minutes. Didn’t seem on the same wavelength as his teammates, and was caught out more than once.
Casemiro: 9
Dominant. Has seen everything, has done everything, and it shows. He knows what you’re going to do before you do. He probably knew every word in the sentence I am currently typing. Brazil’s second-best player of the last ten years. And his goal? What a hit, son. What a hit.
Lucas Paqueta: 6
Mainly a passenger thus far. In his defense, he needs people to combine with, and he’s not getting that right now for two reasons. One, his favorite partner in crime is out injured. (Nor has he had a chance to play with this second favorite, Bruno.) Two, see above under Speed of Execution. Brazil’s attacking players are simply too spread out to combine consistently or effectively right now, effectively dulling Paqueta’s abilities. He’s not someone you can give the ball to; he’s someone you must share the ball with. When that happens, the entire tempo of the game increases. But when Paqueta gets the ball with no one around, the game slows down. He’s a chemical reagent, a catalyst…but right now, there’s nothing else in the test tube.
Neymar: 6
Looked slow and unsure against Serbia, yet it was his ability to keep the ball in the final third that opened things up just enough for Vinicius to get off a clean shot, which led to the rebound falling to Richarlison. (Remember what I said about rebounds?)
Even as he starts transitioning to the twilight phase of his career, the fact remains that Neymar is still almost always the best player on the pitch…or could bethe best player at any given moment. He’s still irreplaceable, because even if you can recreate his abilities in the aggregate, no player on this team combines his ability to score and create and combine and dribble and make runs off the ball and deliver set pieces and…you get the idea.
I still think this team can win the World Cup without Neymar…but his absence takes Brazil from favorites to merely contenders.
As utterly aggravating as he can be, both on and off the pitch, and as much as certain elements of both his playing style and his personal life disappoint me, it breaks my heart that we’ll never get a truly healthy Neymar at the World Cup.
Richarlison: 7.5
I don’t need to say anything about that goal. The only thing I will say is that he needs to offer a bit more with his hold-up play right now to create opportunities for Vinicius and Raphinha to run at defenders closer to the box instead of from the touch-line.
Raphinha: 6.5
I think he was better in both games than he’s been given credit for. His defensive workrate has been excellent, and he’s created some excellent chances from both set pieces and open play with his swinging deliveries. He’s another, however, that needs to be more aggressive at 1v1s…and I think he needs to drift a little more centrally so he can combine with others. Right now he is always so isolated from everyone.
Vinicius: 6.5
Vinicius has generated more heat than light so far in this World Cup, but he has played a part in all three of Brazil’s goals. In his defense, “stopping Vinicius” is clearly Item #1 on every coach’s gameplan right now because the kid is getting double-marked almost constantly. That said, he could help himself out if he cleaned up his first touch. Too often he shows too much of the ball, or uses his first touch merely to settle the ball, giving the opposition time to surround him. There was one moment in the first half against Serbia when Brazil counter-pressed and won the ball back in the midfield. Someone – I think Marquinhos – passed to Vinicius directly in the center circle with a ton of space for him to run into. Unfortunately, his first touch, while not technically a miscontrol, took him closer to the nearest Serbian instead of further away, and the chance for a devastating half-counter was lost.
Another moment against Switzerland occurred when the ball was switched out to his flank. Widmer, the right-back, sprinted to close him down. Ideally, Vinicius would have taken his first touch down the touchline, forcing Widmer to keep sprinting. Instead, Vinicius’ chest control resulted in the ball popping up slightly, forcing him to take another touch to settle it. Within an instant, both Widmer and Freuler were double-marking him and the chance was gone.
Nit-picking? Sort of…but also, not really. These are the little moments you have to nail if you want to be the “main man” at a World Cup, and right now, Vinicius isn’t doing enough with them.
Gabriel Martinelli: 6.5
Unlike Vinicius, Martinelli was merely single-marked by Cameroon, and he took full advantage of this. His pace is astonishing, but what’s really impressive about him is how he maintains close control even at a full sprint. He was bright, busy, and aggressive, and probably the only real bright spot in an otherwise frustrating match.
The reason I’m not rating him higher is because, despite all this, he never looked all that threatening in or around the box. He had a couple of shots that went straight at the keeper. Sent in a few crosses, nearly always of the “hit and hope” variety. Overhit one or two pocket passes. Failed to redirect – an admittedly difficult – header on target.
None of this is really criticism, as it’s not like any of his teammates did any better. And, y’know, at least his dribbling created opportunities for him to cross or shoot. I think he should probably play in every match going forward, albeit as a substitute, as his pace and fearlessness are just too good to leave on the bench. But I question whether he has the tools and guile right now to be consistently more than a pacy 1v1er. Some people were comparing him to Kaka, I suppose because of the way he carries the ball at pace. Other than that, I just don’t see it. Kaka had incredible vision and could hit perfectly weighted, defense-splitting passes at a full sprint. Kaka was also an amazingly two-footed finisher, and by far the best long-range shooter of the 21st century post-Rivaldo. (Seriously, it’s insane how many goals he scored outside the box…with both feet!) Martinelli hasn’t really shown that. (And to be clear, I know nobody was comparing him to Kaka qualitatively, just stylistically.)
Still, of everyone on Brazil’s depth chart, he’s shown by far the most signs of being a super-sub.
Fred & Bruno Guimaraes: 5.5
So, I’m not going to write up my thoughts about these two right now…because I have so many, it really needs to be an article. An article I’ll probably never find the time to write, sadly, but where there’s life there’s hope. (And need of vittles.)
Fabinho: 6
Fabinho was a complete nonentity to me against Cameroon. I can’t recall anything he did to standout either positively or negatively.
Rodrygo: 6.5
There are no negatives about Rodrygo in this World Cup. Everything is just found money with him right now, because even six months ago, I don’t think anyone expected him to play major minutes at this World Cup. But he is, and in a completely new position to boot. He’s acquitted himself well, picking up a vital assist against Switzerland and often being the only player capable of driving up the middle of the pitch. This last is crucial, because it’s the kind of dribble-penetration I alluded to earlier. It pierces lines and scrambles the defense, because it forces defenders to make that dreaded choice: Step, or stay? Converge on the dribbler, or hold your line?
Now, it has to be said that those runs aren’t really leading to anything yet. And other than his assist, Rodrygo hasn’t really done anything decisive of note. Hence, his score. Eventually, though, those runs will suck defenders in, opening up gaps for teammates to exploit. This is what Neymar has provided over the last 10+ years. Ideally, Rodrygo will take over the next 10.
Antony: 6
Take. On. Your. Fucking. Man!
Seriously, kid, Nike this shit. Don’t want to do it off the touchline? Fine – drift in, play a one-two, and then do it. Concerned you don’t have the pace? Then explode off your first touch. All you can do is try.
But for the love of Garrincha, stop doing endless variations of this:
https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxzK-Zov0beFdiFaafEZxwkC5ddYTzXPMA
Gabriel Jesus: 5.5
In retrospect, it may have made more sense for Tite to start with Pedro when Cameroon was sitting deep, and bringing in Gabriel Jesus when the game was stretched. Either way, Jesus just didn’t do anything of note in his cameo. Worse was that he barely tried. I can’t recall any instances of fight or hunger from him other than one tackle in the first half.
I’ll go to my grave believing there’s a player here – his ball control for Arsenal this season has been absolutely God-tier at times – but it’s not going to happen in a yellow shirt.
Sorry, GJ…destiny rang, but you never picked up the phone.
Pedro: N/A
Blazed one half-chance over the bar. Didn’t really have an opportunity to do anything else, so I’m not going to rate him.
Everton Ribeiro: 5
Awful cameo. Consistently got in the way of his teammates or dribbled down blind alleys. Worst moment was when Bruno played him in and he just jogged away from the ball, thinking he was off-side when he actually wasn’t. Play to the fucking whistle, man.
I know he’s not that bad, but he’s also got no business playing in a World Cup.
Dani Alves: 5
Tchau, Dani. You had a nice Indian summer in 2019 after disappointing in a yellow shirt most of your career, but it probably should have ended there. My hope was that you still had the calmness in possession and the vision in the final third to help Brazil build from the back and create scoring chances, but you didn’t really demonstrate that…and your last swan song involved getting your ankles broken.
How will we remember Dani Alves for the Seleção? Well, he did win some silverware, playing an important role in both the 2007 and 2019 Copa Americas, as well as the 2020 Olympics. (He also scored the game winner against South Africa in the 2009 Confedederations Cup semifinals.) But he’s a World Cup flop, a man who lost his starting spot to Maicon on multiple occasions, and someone who has remarkably few memorable performances for a career spanning 16 years and 124 caps. He’s no Cafu or Carlos Alberto or Djalma Santos; he’s not even a Jorginho.
Ultimately, we’ll remember him as the right-back Brazil deserved, but not the one it needed.
He’ll be a helluva color commentator on TV one day.
So, after 4,250 words, what do I think? Am I confident in Brazil, or worried?
Confident.
I think.
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