Casemiro is a fucking king. Brief thoughts on our 1-0 win over Switzerland:

  • I kind of doubted that Neymar’s absence would be a huge detriment, but it obviously was. As Black Matt pointed out in the comments, I should have remembered that Neymar just sucks up so much attention that his mere presence opens up space for others, even if he’s not doing much himself.
  • I thought Tite made a pretty significant tactical blunder in taking Lucas Paquetá off for Rodrygo at halftime. The “screw the midfield” 4-2-4/4-1-5 has worked pretty well most of the times he’s tried it, but without creative passing to link the defense and the attack, it can get pretty staid. With Neymar injured and Paquetá off the pitch, it was up to Fred and Rodrygo to provide that impetus and they couldn’t, giving up the ball to Switzerland more often in the process. Things improved notably after Bruno Guimarães’ introduction for Fred some 15 minutes later, even though he didn’t have that great of a game. Tite gets some credit for recognizing his mistake quickly and making a new change to reestablish control of the game.
  • One yellow card through two games! And it’s to a player we’d probably all like to see play less! A massive improvement from our disciplinary record in past World Cups, which was already pretty good.

Brazil vs. Cameroon

Lusail Iconic Stadium, Lusail, December 2, 2022

Kickoff: 2:00 PM EST / 4:00 PM BRT / 7:00 PM GMT

US TV/Streaming: FOX / foxsports.com/live ; Telemundo / Peacock

Possible Starting Lineup: Ederson, Daniel Alves, Militão, Bremer, Alex Telles; Fabinho, Bruno Guimarães; Antony, Rodrygo, Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli.

Injury and Suspension Report: Neymar (ankle sprain + edema); Danilo (ankle sprain); Alex Sandro (hip). Several players (Neymar, Antony, Alisson, Vini Jr., Paquetá) have reportedly caught some sort of stomach bug that’s going around the group. FIFA protocols do not require that they test for COVID. Nobody is suspended.

Discipline Report: Fred has one yellow card.

Notes And Storylines

With a spot in the Round of 16 secured after two group games, a luxury we haven’t enjoyed since the 2010 World Cup, Tite will likely rest the entire first-choice XI for Friday’s game. I think this is a great move. If we win the group, as is likely, our first knockout game will be just three days later on December 5th (it’ll be the 6th if we finish second), a brutal three-day turnaround. Much as with the decision not to play a preparatory friendly before the World Cup started, anything that can be done to reduce the load on our key players is good. And we have the added benefit of greatly reducing the risk that anyone will be suspended for key knockout games. If Casemiro doesn’t play on Friday, then that completely eliminates the chance that he’ll get suspended for the quarterfinals because of yellow-card accumulation, banishing one of the ghosts of 2018.

Another nice thing about this is that this means almost the entire team will be given a chance to play at the World Cup, a valuable experience for youngsters who may be starters in 2026. Can anyone starting in this game work their way into the A-team? They’ll have (relatively) little pressure on them, so perhaps we’ll see a more adventurous display in attack than we were able to produce in our first two games, particularly since Cameroon is probably the most defensively shaky team in the group. On the other hand, they’ve only had a couple of days to train together, and I still have question marks over any forward, even Rodrygo, being asked to fulfill Neymar’s role as a creator in this team. I feel like the guy with the best chance of making his way into the first-choice XI is Bruno Guimarães, simply because he would likely replace Fred, the most obvious weak link in the team, but I also doubt that even a stellar performance tomorrow will result in him starting in the round of 16. Maybe the quarterfinal at earliest. On the other hand, Fernandinho replaced Paulinho in the starting XI in 2014 after just one impressive appearance off the bench. On the other other hand, he was then calamitous as a starter in the 7-1, but who wasn’t.

It’s worth noting that, if the starting XI reported above holds true, our only players who won’t have played at this World Cup will be Pedro, Everton Ribeiro, and Weverton, i.e., the three players in the squad who play for Brazilian clubs. Charity cases? Well, maybe. Weverton is probably forever consigned to the bench as the third-choice goalie. It’s certainly interesting that Ribeiro, ostensibly in the squad as Paquetá’s backup, isn’t getting a chance in midfield, but I don’t think anyone minds too much. Pedro is the most eyebrow-raising, since he’s much more of a traditional target man (and also just straight-up a better goalscorer) than Gabriel Jesus, who looks like he’ll be leading the line tomorrow. On the other hand, GJ’s inclusion takes advantage of his club chemistry with Gabriel Martinelli, and if he plays as more of a false 9 and drops deep, that opens space for Martinelli and Antony to make diagonal runs in behind the defense.

As for Cameroon, they’ve, uh, they’ve got some drama going on. First-choice goalie André Onana had some sort of bust-up with coach Rigobert Song about his tendency to come way out of his penalty area and has left the squad. They still have a chance to advance from the group with a win plus a draw or loss for Switzerland by the right margins, so we can expect them to fight for it, and they were pretty decent in attack against Serbia in particular. On the other hand, that defensive shakiness I mentioned will likely be compounded by the drop in quality from Onana to either Devis Epassy or Simon Ngapandouetnbu in goal. Last time we played Cameroon, also in the last group stage game at the 2014 World Cup, we won 4-1, but I don’t quite expect something that impressive tomorrow. I’m predicting a 2-0 win, as I think we might take things a little easy once we take a comfortable lead, and/or we’ll continue to display some trouble with finishing our chances.

Earlier on Friday, we’ll also get to learn who our round of 16 opponents will be, and it’s a reminder that we shouldn’t treat this game as a complete pushover. If we win the group (we need at least a draw to be sure), we’ll most likely face Ghana, South Korea, or Uruguay, all teams that we’ve beaten very comfortably in the past 15 months or so. (I truly thought Uruguay had overcome their poor form in qualifying, but their performances so far suggest otherwise.) If we finish second, we probably face Portugal in the round of 16, and our potential quarterfinal matchups on that path now look barely any easier than our likely clash with Spain if we win the group.