In our first match of the World Cup, we produced an excellent second half and a solid 2-0 win over Serbia, but lost Neymar and Danilo to ankle injuries which are likely to keep them out for at least the rest of the group stage. Some quick pros, cons, and other takeaways from that match:

  • MEU DEUS DO CÉU, RICHARLISON! QUE GOLAAAAAAAAAAAÇOOOOOO! I’m sure I’m not the only one still buzzing about Richi’s second goal against Serbia. And I can’t be the only one thinking that we just witnessed one of the greatest Seleção goals of all time. We all voted on the greatest Brazil goals ever during COVID; where do you think this one would stack up? I think it would make the quarterfinals at the very least. I think that was a top 10 Brazil goal of all time.
  • None of them scored (though two hit the post), but the fact that we were able to produce several dangerous long shots speaks well to how our players are adapting to this World Cup ball. I’ve seen a lot of players and teams struggle to keep their shots down at this tournament (coughCanadacough), and I’m glad we seem to have the ball figured out from the jump.
  • He missed a couple of great chances, but I think Raphinha was a key element of our tactical setup. With so much of the play concentrated down the left with Neymar and Vini Jr., having a fast and dangerous dribbler down the other flank meant we always had an outlet ball. Especially in the first half, a lot of our attacks came from finding Raphinha in space.
  • I’m still not 100% convinced by Vini Jr. in a Brazil shirt. He hasn’t been given a consistent run in the team yet, but he’s yet to really gel with Neymar or show his best form when he has been given the chance. He shows a bit too much of the headless-chicken thing he used to struggle with at Real Madrid, and that killed a few good scoring chances against Serbia. On the other hand, he was instrumental in both goals.
  • Generally, I’m still concerned about our scoring ability; the stats say we didn’t miss too many big chances, but there were lots of openings, particularly in the first half and near the end of the game, where we let a big scoring chance pass us by because the final ball into the box just wasn’t quite right. I think we played a great second half from an attacking perspective, but Tite has not yet broken his streak of his team not scoring more than two goals in a World Cup game.

Brazil vs. Switzerland

Stadium 974, Doha, November 28, 2022

Kickoff: 11:00 AM EST / 1:00 PM BRT / 4:00 PM GMT

US TV/Streaming: FOX / foxsports.com/live ; Telemundo / Peacock

Possible Starting Lineup: Alisson, Éder Militão, Marquinhos, Thiago Silva, Alex Sandro; Casemiro, Lucas Paquetá; Rodrygo, Richarlison, Raphinha, Vini Jr.

Notes and Storylines

This game will kick off after Serbia vs. Cameroon finishes, meaning we’ll know beforehand whether winning it will be enough to clinch a spot in the round of 16. If the early game finishes in a draw, then yes; if one of the two teams win, then we won’t quite be guaranteed, but we would have to lose our last game to have any reason to worry, and probably by a decently large amount because of goal difference. I’d love for us to not have to worry about the third group game; it would be great to give some more starters some rest to prevent the sort of injuries that befell Neymar and Danilo, or someone getting a yellow card that could suspend them for a crucial game.

The big question for this game is who will replace Neymar and Danilo. It sounds like the top options to replace the former right now are Rodrygo and Fred; Antony is probably out of the question for Monday’s game since he’s suffering from some sort of stomach bug, while Bruno Guimarães just seems to be lower on the pecking order. (What’s going on with Bruno? I think we all hoped that his excellent displays for Newcastle and against Bolivia were actively convincing Tite to start him over Fred, but he hasn’t even gotten game time yet.) Tite’s “who needs a midfield” formation worked against Serbia, and it would probably work against Switzerland, but there is a question mark over whether anyone can really replace Neymar’s role in that setup. Rodrygo is a wonderfully talented young player, sure, but can he come deep and orchestrate plays like Neymar can? (Then again, was Neymar really doing such a good job of that against Serbia even before he got injured? Does anyone else have a sneaking suspicion that the team might not really miss him that much?) I think I’d rather lean towards Fred starting and making this a slightly more conventional 4-3-3 or 4-1-4-1; it would let Paquetá move up more into the attacking third, where he does his best work, while giving us a little bit more stability in the middle of the park (not that we were seriously lacking that against Serbia, in fairness). We all agree that Bruno is better than Fred, but Fred is who we’re likely to get unless something happens to make Tite change his mind. (And I still think Fred is better than we give him credit for—but if he’s going to get exposed, well, Switzerland are a pretty tall team and he’s pretty dang short.)

Oh, an idle but related thought: Who’s going to take our free kicks with Neymar out? Neymar’s been lights-out from the penalty spot for years, but the same can’t be said of his direct free kicks in particular, where his foot injuries seem to have permanently damaged his ability. Rodrygo and Raphinha have produced some great free kicks themselves over the years; if one of them scores in the next two games, should they get to usurp Neymar?

As for Danilo, Tite has to choose between center-back-by-trade Éder Militão and Mr. Methuselah himself, Dani Alves. I would imagine Militão is ahead in the pecking order because he’s been tried there more recently, and there might be some doubts about Alves’ ability to go 90 minutes at his age. I’d start to get a bit anxious about our lack of center-back cover were Militão to get hurt, but we still have Bremer, and Fabinho can also do a job at CB in a pinch. If we guarantee our spot in the round of 16 after this game, though, I’m fine with Alves starting or getting some big minutes against Cameroon to prove he can still do a job.

Switzerland, of course, are no pushovers, but it kind of seems like they’ve gone slightly off the boil recently. A pre-tournament loss to Ghana, and a kind of drab showing in their first game against Cameroon, hints that they may not have the power to surprise that they once did, but they’re still a team with more attacking talent than you’d think and a seriously strong defense. Our ongoing issues with finishing chances might play into their hands, but I can’t help but think that this Switzerland isn’t quite as menacing as the team that beat France at the Euros and has given Spain so many headaches over the past 18 months. I think we get off to a faster start than we did against Serbia, force Switzerland to chase the game, and end up with a 3-1 win.