On next Monday, November 7th, Tite will announce the 26 players who will make up Brazil’s squad at the World Cup in Qatar. This is my attempt to figure out where his head is at, examine Brazil’s depth chart, and try and figure out who he’s actually going to pick.

I did something like this just about nine months ago, and it’s wild how much things have changed. Look at all the players whose prospects of making the World Cup I labeled as uncertain, or even pipe dreams! Rodrygo, Bruno Guimarães, Pedro, hell, even Gabriel Martinelli look like they have good, even great, chances of getting a plane ticket to Qatar.

I’m going to keep mostly the same format this time around: I’m listing the candidates in each of the positions typically used in Tite’s tactical setup along with their odds of going to the World Cup. Locks are self-explanatory; I expect Likely players to make it but don’t yet have complete confidence on the matter. Players In The Mix are strong candidates that have earned recent consideration, but are facing a lot of direct competition with another player for a single spot. Players Outside Looking In have been considered in the recent past, but their odds of making it at the moment look pretty slim. Pipe Dreams haven’t been on the radar recently if ever, but have some qualities that might still make them worth taking in my book, and If The Worst Happens players weren’t known to be on it before reports put them on Tite’s 55-man shortlist, or more established options who don’t seem to have any chance other than someone else getting hurt. Players to whom The Worst Happened have already had their World Cup dreams ended by injury. 🙁

Speaking of the shortlist, anyone who’s been reported to be on it is denoted with an asterisk. Most of the players confirmed to be on the shortlist so far are Brazilian club players clearly very far down the depth chart. (55 players is a lot, so there’s some real weird choices on here. God help us if we need to call on someone like Rodinei.) If I list a player with a slim chance of making it who isn’t on the shortlist, I’m either speculating or just straight-up hoping they’re still in consideration.

Goalkeepers

Locks: Alisson, Ederson, Weverton

If The Worst Happens: Santos*, Everson

This is our most settled position, as it has been for some time. Santos and Everson have gotten their chances, but the only way they’re getting on the plane to Qatar is if one of our first three choices gets hurt in the next three weeks.

Slots filled: 3/26

Right-Backs

Locks: Danilo

In The Mix: Dani Alves

Outside Looking In: Emerson Royal

If The Worst Happens: Rodinei* (Flamengo)

Pipe Dream: Vanderson (AS Monaco), Dodô (Fiorentina)

So we’re kind of fucked at RB, to the point where Tite has recently tested center-back Éder Militão in the role. There’s no clearly outstanding option in the mix right now: Danilo overlaps pretty well but is an extremely meh player overall; Militão is arguably more capable but doesn’t look fully comfortable with overlapping and other functions of the fullback role; and Dani Alves is probably too old and slow to rely on as a starter even if he is still technically superb. As I don’t think the promising but raw Vanderson and Dodô are really in the mix, I’m not sure there’s anyone in serious contention who would be a real step up over even these pretty slim offerings. As it stands, I wouldn’t be surprised if Tite calls up a fifth CB to cover Militão if he has to play RB, but the only player whose spot is truly guaranteed at the moment as a right-back is Danilo.

Also, though I don’t think he’ll be asked to do it, Fabinho is capable of playing at RB as well. That might actually be one of the more intriguing solutions, since it could open up the possibility of adding an extra midfielder as cover, and that’s definitely our thinnest sector in terms of personnel. Having this as an excuse to incorporate someone like Douglas Luiz or Joelinton could be pretty valuable, but again, I don’t think Tite sees this as a serious option right now.

Slots filled: 4/26

Center-Backs

Locks: Thiago Silva, Marquinhos, Éder Militão

Likely: Bremer*

In The Mix: Gabriel Magalhães, Roger Ibañez

Outside Looking In: Lucas Veríssimo, Léo Ortiz*, Nino*

Some pretty wild shakeups went on here, even though the three locks remain the same. Bremer wasn’t even in the picture nine months ago and now I think he might well be the front-runner for the fourth CB slot, as Gabriel appears to have slid out of the picture a little bit. The question is, will we get a fifth, allowing Militão or maybe even Ibañez to be effectively our backup right-back? I think it’s likely but not guaranteed.

Slots filled: 8/26 (The fourth slot isn’t certain, but we’re absolutely calling up four CBs. I’m going to bet on Bremer getting the spot.)

Left-Backs

Likely: Alex Sandro, Alex Telles

Outside Looking In: Renan Lodi

If The Worst Happens: Filipe Luís*, Caio Henrique*

The Worst Happened: Guilherme Arana (out injured)

I’m a little hesitant to call either Alex a total lock just yet, simply because neither is that good, but they definitely seem to have Tite’s favor, and I don’t know that Renan Lodi did enough in the September friendlies to truly put himself back in the mix. Anyone else being called is roughly as likely right now as Guilherme Arana’s torn knee ligament magically healing itself three months early.

Slots filled: 10/26

Midfield Destroyer

Locks: Casemiro, Fabinho

Outside Looking In: Douglas Luiz, Joelinton, Danilo

If The Worst Happens: André* (Fluminense), João Gomes* (Flamengo) (I haven’t watched enough of either of these two to know if this is truly the position that best describes them)

I’m placing Joelinton higher than “Pipe Dream” status even though Tite has never called him up, as he’s playing very well for Newcastle and his teammate Bruno Guimarães has Tite’s ear and is surely a strong advocate. That said, it’s not clear that he’s in the picture at all. Tite attended Aston Villa vs. Newcastle this past weekend, in which Joelinton scored, but at least one Globo story I saw only mentioned Philippe Coutinho and Bruno Guimarães as players he was watching, not Joelinton nor indeed Douglas Luiz. Given that Tite has definitely monitored Luiz for a while, it could just be an oversight from that reporter.

Regardless, Casemiro and Fabinho have been the de facto first two choices here for so long that I don’t think there’s any way they don’t both make it to Qatar, even considering that Fabinho’s form has seemingly dipped quite a bit with Liverpool’s struggles.

Slots filled: 12/26

Creatively Inclined Deep Midfielders

Locks: Fred, Bruno Guimarães

Outside Looking In: Gerson, Edenílson

The Worst Happened: Arthur (the less said the better)

It’s been obvious for a while, despite our fears: Bruno Guimarães is going to Qatar. Unless he gets hurt, because, you know, he picks up a knock in seemingly every other game. The big question is how long it will take him to get the starting role ahead of Fred. Though, and I’ll still stand by this, I’d much rather have Fred starting than Paulinho or Elias, even if our odds of winning the World Cup would be much better after Bruno replaces him.

You know who hasn’t gotten enough consideration as a potential creative-minded backup in midfield? Gerson. He’s more capable as an actual midfielder than Coutinho or Everton Ribeiro, and he finished last season very strongly with Marseille, scoring a bunch of nice goals. Unfortunately, his start to this season has been much shakier, so his ship has probably already sailed.

Slots filled: 14/26

Truly Attacking Midfielders

Locks: Lucas Paquetá

In The Mix: Philippe Coutinho, Everton Ribeiro*

Outside Looking In: Claudinho

Pipe Dream: Andreas Pereira

Slots filled: 15/26

Reports in Brazil suggest that Coutinho’s spot at the World Cup is in serious jeopardy, but I’ll believe it when I see that he’s not in the final squad. Yes, Coutinho is struggling to get game time for Aston Villa right now while Everton Ribeiro recently notched crucial assists in Flamengo’s Copa Libertadores and Copa do Brasil triumphs, but I still think that if you’re chasing a game and need to find some magic off the bench, Coutinho has much more talent to do that than Ribeiro does. Forget form; I, personally, would gamble on Coutinho rediscovering some world-beating form one last time before I’d gamble on Ribeiro being able to make a game-changing contribution when France or Argentina have our backs to the wall.

(Then again, Ribeiro’s assists in those big cup finals were pretty good…)

Right Wingers

Locks: Raphinha, Antony

Likely: Rodrygo

Slots filled: 18/26

Look, I had to fit in Rodrygo somewhere along the front line, and while he can play all three positions (and is arguably better as a center forward or left winger than he is as a right winger), right wing is the position he plays most often for Real Madrid, so right wing is where I’m putting him. That versatility, and his incredible clutch-ness in the Champions League last season, has all-but guaranteed him a place in Qatar. Given the positional flexibility of many of our forwards, we have plenty of cover on this flank if the worst happens to any of the three I’ve listed here.

Center Forwards

Locks: Richarlison

Likely: Gabriel Jesus, Pedro*

In The Mix: Matheus Cunha

Outside Looking In: Roberto Firmino, Gabigol*

Slots filled: 21/26

It’s definitely possible I misinterpreted Tite’s omission of Arsenal’s three Gabriéis in his last callup, but I’m still confident that Gabriel Jesus, at least, is all-but locked in, and deserves it based on his club performances even if it’s long become clear that he’s not the sort of forward who can carry a team’s goalscoring load solely on his back. Richarlison’s seven goals in his last six Brazil games should overcome any concerns about his club form and lock him in too, assuming he is indeed soon to return from his recent injury. And Pedro’s goal against Tunisia and excellent club form should pretty much guarantee his place too.

Anyone else is facing an uphill battle. I have to think Matheus Cunha’s lack of playing time for Atleti and his poor recent performances for Brazil have all-but killed his chances of a spot that once looked pretty secure. As for Roberto Firmino and Gabigol, the former’s resurgence for Liverpool and the latter’s Copa Libertadores-winning goal make cases for each, but Tite hasn’t expressed much interest in either recently (he called up Firmino in September but played Richarlison, Cunha, and Pedro instead of him, and hasn’t called up Gabigol since January), so I think their chances and those of anyone else who might be on the shortlist hinge entirely on someone else getting injured.

Left Wingers

Locks: Neymar, Vini Jr.

In The Mix: Gabriel Martinelli

Outside Looking In: Malcom

If The Worst Happens: Luiz Henrique* (Real Betis)

While it doesn’t seem like we have many clear options behind our two clear front-runners in this position, all three of the players I have listed as right wingers can perform double duty over here if need be, as can Lucas Paquetá. All of which in turn helps open up the possibility of, say, Neymar operating as a 10. Point being, we have wonderful strength in depth on the wings, knock on wood knock on wood knock on wood.

Slots filled: 23/26

So that leaves three slots left to fill. Where do we need to fill them? Well, here’s where we’re short:

  • One right-back (or a fifth center-back to cover if a CB is moved to RB) (probably either Dani Alves or one of Bremer, Magalhães, or Ibañez)
  • One attacking midfielder (in all likelihood, either Coutinho or Ribeiro)
  • One wild card spot!

I think Tite can go one of three ways with this last spot. He can bring in further defensive cover, like a second RB to go alongside the fifth CB. He can bring in a seventh midfielder, since that sector is kind of thin; he might be able to kill two birds with one stone here if he’s indeed willing to consider Fabinho as an option at RB. Or he can bring along yet another attacker whose form and characteristics deserve a spot, and the only player I can see really fitting that mold is Gabriel Martinelli. Martinelli’s ability to run at players in the middle of the field and make runs in behind could be useful, but he’s still a bit raw and inconsistent, and I can’t help but think that position could be better used to provide an extra dimension elsewhere.

So I’m going to guess that final spot goes to (gasp) Dani Alves, alongside a fifth CB, I’d guess Gabriel (with Bremer having supplanted him as the fourth CB). I know there are massive questions about Alves right now, given his age and the fact that he’s playing (though seemingly quite well) for a struggling team in Mexico. But he’s still a technically excellent player who can play both in defense in midfield, and that versatility, along with his veteran leadership, earns him huge points in Tite’s eyes. He probably can’t play a full 90 minutes, but he shouldn’t have to; he’s a guy you can put on to shore up the midfield or defense when closing out a game or when you need a little more playmaking quality to chase a result, and even at his age he’s still arguably a more attacking RB than Danilo or any CB who could be moved to the right.

Which leaves us with…

THE FINAL LIST (my guess)

Goalkeepers: Alisson, Ederson, Weverton.

Defenders: Danilo, Dani Alves, Thiago Silva, Marquinhos, Éder Militão, Bremer, Gabriel Magalhães, Alex Telles, Alex Sandro.

Midfielders: Casemiro, Fabinho, Bruno Guimarães, Fred, Lucas Paquetá, Philippe Coutinho.

Forwards: Neymar, Vini Jr., Antony, Raphinha, Richarlison, Pedro, Gabriel Jesus, Rodrygo.

What would I change if I were Tite? Probably not very much. I’d probably make a few like-for-like personnel swaps (Renan Lodi for Alex Telles, Ibañez for Magalhães), and I’m liking the idea of treating Fabinho as an RB or CB option more the more I think about it, so I’d take Douglas Luiz or Joelinton ahead of Dani Alves and give us that extra midfielder. Maybe I’d even consider bringing Martinelli in Coutinho’s place, but that might be a step too far. There are a few tempting names I’d love to try if I had more time, like Vanderson, but I’m not sure there’s anyone I’d dare calling up for the first time at the World Cup except Joelinton.