A good “how far have we come?” test on a potentially big day for the Seleção.

Brazil vs. Colombia

Arena Corinthians, São Paulo, November 11, 2021

Kickoff: 7:30 PM EDT / 9:30 PM BRT / 11:30 PM GMT

Possible Starting XI: Alisson; Danilo, Marquinhos, Thiago Silva, Alex Sandro; Casemiro, Fred, Lucas Paquetá; Raphinha, Gabriel Jesus, Neymar.

Notes and Storylines

First and foremost, if we win this game, we are qualified for the World Cup. This has been all-but certain for months now, but now we can finally make it mathematically official.

Next, let’s touch on Colombia. This is the second time we’re facing them in our last three fixtures, and it’ll be a good bellwether for how much Raphinha improves the team. In our 0-0 draw against them in Barranquilla, we had a pretty decent first half, didn’t score, and then were horrendous in the second half, with Raphinha coming onto the bench and offering the only sparks of actually good play. In the game after that, Raphinha finally got to start and the result was Brazil’s best performance in years as we crushed Uruguay 4-1. Perhaps that was just a fluke given that Uruguay seems to be in bad shape right now, so playing Colombia with Raphinha as a starter so soon after playing them with him on the bench should give a better indication of how much better the team works with him on the right wing.

One storyline to keep an eye on ahead of our game against Argentina next Tuesday is how many players are one yellow card away from suspension. Between us and our hermanos to the south, we have 17 players in danger of missing the game—on our side, those players are Thiago Silva, Marquinhos, Éder Militão, Casemiro, Fabinho, Gerson, Lucas Paquetá and Gabriel Jesus. With how rough games against Colombia often become, we could definitely see two or three players miss out against Argentina. Of course, it may not matter, because in addition to Argentina’s own concerns in this regard, the fitness of other key players like Lionel Messi is very much in doubt.

One player I’ll be keeping a close eye on is Gabriel Jesus. As I’ve been saying recently, he’s having a pretty decent season for Manchester City, but it’s now been nearly two and a half years since his last goal for Brazil, despite being a regular starter for most of that time. Raphinha’s stellar showings last month showed us just how much more effective a fast, direct, dribble-happy right winger can be than a safer, more workhorse-type winger like GJ. While this has moved GJ off the right wing, he has yet to lose his spot in the starting XI; with Richarlison, Gabigol, and Roberto Firmino all out of the squad, GJ seems like he will continue to start as the de facto number 9 for at least another game or two. But he has to offer more to justify his starting spot. Against Uruguay, as the rest of the attack finally clicked around him, he stumbled, looking indecisive and bereft of confidence, and it’s been a long time since he’s looked like any sort of clutch goalscorer—or much of a playmaker either. With that in mind, I really hope we see Matheus Cunha get some decent time; his lack of minutes for Atlético Madrid is very concerning, but as a taller, stronger player and better finisher who’s still very technically adept, he could really thrive in this setup and set himself apart from GJ. (Or, who knows, maybe GJ finally rediscovers his goalscoring touch.)

Prediction time! For once, I’m going to be a bit ballsy here. Brazil-Colombia games often get ugly and physical, and I often feel like Colombia successfully drag us down to their level, so that we fight to a narrow win or a draw instead of trying to win big. But with Raphinha in the starting lineup and making the attack vastly quicker and more fluid, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that that won’t be the case for once. Brazil 3-0 Colombia is my bold prediction.

As a reminder, here’s the squad, with players cut due to injury struck through and their replacements in italics. Remember that with the exception of Gabriel Chapecó, who’s here as the “young goalie getting a taste of the Seleção experience” du jour, nobody playing for Brazilian clubs has been called up, as the Brasileirão is reaching crunch time (and not stopping for the international break) and the all-Brazilian Copa Libertadores final is right around the corner.

GKs: Alisson (Liverpool), Ederson (Manchester City), Gabriel Chapecó (Grêmio)

Fullbacks: Danilo (Juventus), Alex Sandro (Juventus), Émerson (Tottenham), Renan Lodi (Atlético Madrid)

Center-backs: Thiago Silva (Chelsea), Marquinhos (Paris Saint-Germain), Éder Militão (Real Madrid), Lucas Veríssimo (Benfica), Gabriel Magalhães (Arsenal)

Midfielders: Casemiro (Real Madrid), Fabinho (Liverpool), Fred (Manchester United), Gerson (Olympique de Marseille), Lucas Paquetá (Lyon), Philippe Coutinho (Barcelona)

Attackers: Antony (Ajax), Matheus Cunha (Atlético de Madrid), Raphinha (Leeds), Roberto Firmino (Liverpool), Vinícius Júnior (Real Madrid), Neymar (Paris Saint-Germain), Gabriel Jesus (Manchester City)