Three more games! Maybe we’ll get to finish them all this time.

Brazil’s Squad

(players called but later cut struck through, players added later in italics.)

GKs: Alisson, Ederson, Weverton.

Fullbacks: Danilo, Emerson Royal, Alex Sandro, Guilherme Arana.

CBs: Thiago Silva, Marquinhos, Éder Militão, Lucas Veríssimo.

DMs/CMs: Fabinho, Casemiro, Douglas Luiz, Fred, Gerson, Edenilson.

AMs: Everton Ribeiro, Lucas Paquetá.

Forwards: Neymar, Gabriel Jesus, Vinícius Júnior, Raphinha, Antony, Gabigol, Matheus Cunha, Arthur Cabral.

The Games

Brazil vs. Venezuela

Estadio Olímpico de la UCV, Caracas, Venezuela, October 7, 2021

Kickoff: 7:30 PM EDT / 8:30 PM BRT / 11:30 PM GMT

US TV / Streaming: FuboTV

Possible Starting Lineup: Alisson, Danilo, Thiago Silva, Marquinhos, Guilherme Arana; Fabinho, Gerson, Everton Ribeiro, Lucas Paquetá; Gabriel Jesus, Gabigol.

Brazil vs. Colombia

Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez, Barranquilla, Colombia, October 10, 2021

Kickoff: 5:00 PM EDT / 6:00 PM BRT / 9:00 PM GMT

US TV / Streaming: FuboTV

Brazil vs. Uruguay

Arena da Amazônia, Manaus, October 14, 2021

Kickoff: 8:30 PM EDT / 9:30 PM BRT / 12:30 AM GMT

US TV / Streaming: FuboTV

Notes and Storylines

The top storyline for me should be no surprise: can Tite get the attack to actually work? There were flashes of improvement in the last game we played against Peru, where he started current/recent Flamengo teammates Everton Ribeiro, Gabigol, and Gerson and the team was markedly more fluid and pleasant to watch than it had been in some time before then. (A demonstration which again makes me wonder why Tite didn’t call up Bruno Guimarães to take advantage of his chemistry with Lucas Paquetá.) Of course, they tapered off sharply after halftime, as Tite still can’t seem to get Brazil to play two equally good halves of football in the same game.

And even in those circumstances, Gabigol, who’s enjoying an extended run as a starter thanks to the continued unavailability/exclusion of Richarlison, Roberto Firmino, and Gabriel Jesus, was still unable to find the back of the net. In nine appearances for Brazil since June, his only goal contribution remains the goal he chested in at the end of our Copa América win over Venezuela, even as he continues to scorch all comers for Flamengo. Part of what’s keeping him in the team is that it’s not at all obvious that there’s anyone better out there—I already mentioned three, and even when they’re available, Richarlison isn’t a reliable scorer either, Firmino is clearly washed, and GJ prefers playing on the wing. I had some hope for Matheus Cunha, but even setting aside his own propensity for scuffing chances, his time at Atlético Madrid has not started well and he’s injured to boot. In his place, Tite has made one of the more intriguing choices of his tenure, bringing in FC Basel’s Arthur Cabral, possibly the first player to ever be called up to the Seleção while playing in Switzerland. Arthur is 23, he’s enjoying an incredibly prolific start to his season, and, well, who else is there? As it’s been for, well, any striker brought into this team recently, it’s a golden chance for him—if he can find his way onto the scoresheet at all, he stands to immediately set himself apart from all our forwards who can’t seem to score if their lives depended on it.

One more note on this re: tomorrow’s game specifically is that Tite has lined up the team (see above) without any evident attempt to replace the suspended Neymar. Vinícius Júnior, the obvious replacement who’s enjoying a career year, remains on the bench; instead, the team will line up in a 4-4-2 with the two Gabriels (Gabriéis in Portuguese) up top. Honestly, I think it’s worth a try. Tite kept trying to play ostensible number 9s on the wing, and it neither resulted in great wing play nor in having those strikers appear in the box frequently to finish chances. Keeping two strikers (well, kinda) more central could let them play off each other more effectively rather than always being stuck out next to the touchlines. Whether this specific striker pair, or the players behind them, will work, is another question entirely, but I like it in theory.

On a brighter note, if all goes well, we should effectively secure our spot at the World Cup in these three games. The magic number to get an automatic qualifying berth in CONMEBOL qualifying has historically been about 28 points since the format changed to put every South American team in one group, and we currently sit on 24 points, with a game in hand thanks to our unfinished match against Argentina. A win and a draw should pretty much guarantee our place in Qatar next November, and it’s easy to forget that, for all his faults, Tite has led this team to eight straight qualifying victories, so just a win and a draw from these three games would be a serious disappointment.

Plus, if everything falls just right (and don’t check my math on this), I’m pretty sure we could actually mathematically guarantee qualification by the end of this international break: with every team except us and Argentina having 6 games left to play, we’d just need an 18-point lead on fifth place to secure an automatic berth, or sixth place to ensure at least a playoff berth. As it stands, our margins to those places are 11 and 13 points, respectively. Would guaranteed qualification compel Tite to spend the last seven games of qualifying experimenting? Probably not, but we can dream, no?

Predictions

Venezuela away: Somehow, Neymar has conspired to once again be suspended or injured against Venezuela. In the reverse WCQ fixture last year, also without Neymar, we were terrible, maybe the most unwatchable performance of Tite’s tenure despite managing to put the ball in the net four times (only one counted and all were aesthetically hideous). Still, I hold out hope that the Gerson-Ribeiro-Gabigol trio can once again bring some improved fluidity against a weak opponent, though I wonder how they might get found out in our next two games. I predict a 2-0 win, with both goals coming in the first half before a frustrating dropoff, much like the Peru game.

Colombia away: In our Copa América matchup, Colombia created very little, only managing three shots, but Luis Díaz’s goal of the year contender was still almost enough to grab a result, even though we had far more possession and shots. We missed several notable chances and, ultimately, only won thanks to a goal controversially being awarded despite the ball hitting the ref in the buildup, before a winner from a corner in the 10th minute of stoppage time. I think we struggle to even match that performance here, especially in Colombia. Much like our last game away to them, which produced the goal at the top of this post, I think we’re in for a fairly cagey 1-1 draw, hopefully with another magical goal in it because that seems to be a defining factor of Brazil-Colombia games now.

Uruguay at home: This is the second time in this WCQ cycle that we’re playing Uruguay days after playing Venezuela. Last time, I predicted the worst after that horrible display against Venezuela, but we very comfortably dispatched them 2-0 without allowing a shot on target. I think things won’t be quite so easy this time, but we’ll still find our way to victory with a 2-1 win.