Uruguay vs. Brazil

Estadio Centenario, Montevideo, Uruguay, November 17, 2020

Kickoff: 6:00 PM EDT / 4:00 PM BRT / 11:00 PM GMT

US TV / Streaming: PPV only

Likely Starting Lineup: Ederson; Danilo, Thiago Silva, Marquinhos, Renan Lodi; Allan (Arthur), Douglas Luiz, Éverton Ribeiro; Richarlison, Roberto Firmino, Gabriel Jesus.

Updated Squad:

Goalkeepers: Alisson, Ederson, Weverton.

Right-backs: Danilo (Gabriel Menino cut without replacement – COVID).

Left-backs: Alex Telles, Renan Lodi, Guilherme Arana (last-minute callup to cover Telles if a positive COVID test kept him from entering Uruguay, but that didn’t happen, so Arana’s just here for general cover now).

Center-Backs: Marquinhos, Thiago Silva, Felipe (replaces Éder Militão – COVID), Diego Carlos (replaces Rodrigo Caio – injured).

Midfielders: Bruno Guimarães (replaces Casemiro – COVID), Allan (replaces Fabinho – injured), Douglas Luiz, Arthur, Lucas Paquetá (replaces Coutinho – injured), Éverton Ribeiro.

Forwards: Everton Cebolinha, Firmino, Gabriel Jesus, Richarlison, Vinícius Júnior, Thiago Galhardo (replaces Pedro – injured, who himself effectively replaced Neymar – injured).

Notes And Storylines

So the good news is we’re the only team with a 100% record so far in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying, and with nine points, we’re already about a third of the way to what has historically been the threshold for qualification. Not only is that the perfect start, it’s the first time we’ve managed such a start in 40 years. Two of those three wins came in rematches of tricky games from last year’s Copa América, and both times we improved on last year’s result, once with the addition of Neymar and once without.

But damned if it really doesn’t feel like it. Friday’s performance against Venezuela felt like another in a string of red flags stretching back through most of Tite’s tenure: just the latest example of his Brazil sides putting in utterly apathetic performances against teams they should expect to beat handily. It’s not just that it was a close-fought game decided by the odd goal; it’s that it was yet another close-fought game where Brazil didn’t play like Brazil, struggling desperately to convert their advantage in talent into chances and goals.

Of course, there were mitigating factors galore. Brazil were missing not just Neymar, but also Coutinho, Casemiro, Fabinho, and Gabriel Menino, all of whom might have improved the team had they played, not to mention any number of younger players who instead played with the U-23 side. Between sickening players, increasing injury risk through a compressed schedule, and various pandemic measures limiting training and team-building, the COVID-19 pandemic has undeniably made managing international sides significantly harder, and I don’t envy the position Tite is in, having to replace almost half of the outfield players he initially chose. But I don’t think that excuses his questionable usage of the players he did have at his disposal. Why, for instance, did he not start a Neymar-esque winger like Everton Cebolinha in Neymar’s absence, instead opting for three players who all play more as center forwards? It sometimes feels like he doesn’t understand what makes his players good or what he needs out of them, and that leads to situations like the Venezuela game, where the midfield spent the first half passing exclusively sideways and backwards before Lucas Paquetá came on and offered some actual incision.

And now we have unsettling reports that Tite’s going to try and use the same lineup against Uruguay! Allan’s fitness is questionable and Arthur could replace him, but otherwise, Globo believes Tite will go for the same lineup that was so bad in the first half against Venezuela. It seems he’ll even retain Douglas Luiz, who was so horrible in those 45 minutes that Tite took the extraordinary step (for him) of yanking him at the break, and the team noticeably improved in the second half with Paquetá in his place.

The thinking, presumably, is that Uruguay will actually do more than park the bus, thus creating some actual space for the attack to exploit and making our lives much easier than Venezuela did. That might very well be the case, but even if it is, this lineup has already shown that it won’t be able to exploit those gaps. It’s not just about having players in space to pass to; it’s about actually finding and making those passes before the space closes up. And given how slowly Allan and Douglas Luiz moved the ball against Venezuela, I have no faith that they’ll make those passes in time, which means potential counterattacks will fizzle out at their feet, Uruguay’s defenders will get back in position, and then we’ll just be passing the ball side to side with no penetration like the Venezuela game.

For what it’s worth, here’s the lineup I would choose if I were in Tite’s shoes right now.

GK: Alisson. Unless he’s short of fitness, I don’t know why he’s still not starting. He surely gives us a higher chance of getting a result from this game than Ederson.

Backline: Danilo, Thiago Silva, Marquinhos, Renan Lodi. I’m changing nothing here, because we don’t have a replacement for Danilo, and the other three are clearly the best options in their positions right now. Lodi was one of the few bright spots against Venezuela and was, essentially, the team’s best attacking player.

Midfield: Bruno Guimarães, Allan (Arthur), Lucas Paquetá. I think we need a midfield that can protect the back four well against a team like Uruguay, and it just so happens that the hard-working Guimarães and Paquetá are also better at bringing the ball forward, and quickly, than Douglas Luiz or Allan. That can let us keep Allan for his defensive solidity or slot in Arthur for even more improvement to the passing game.

Attack: Everton Cebolinha, Gabriel Jesus, Richarlison (Éverton Ribeiro). Whether it’s on the counterattack or against a massed defense, we need more pace and technique than we saw against Venezuela. That’s why Cebolinha’s the first name on the team sheet and Roberto Firmino is nowhere to be seen. Richarlison is sometimes clumsy, which is why I have the slower Éverton Ribeiro as another option, operating either in the OG Coutinho role on the right wing or in the hole behind the front two.

And here’s my prediction. I think we’ll lose in a frustratingly toothless performance, perhaps one vaguely like Chile’s win over us in the opening round of qualifying for the 2018 World Cup, where we don’t give up a huge number of chances or anything but still clearly don’t deserve to win. Because our defense is still very, very good, and Uruguay have also had to make a bunch of last-minute changes, that won’t result in a lopsided or embarrassing defeat, but we’ll nonetheless look back on it as a game where we had no prayer of winning. Uruguay 2-0 Brazil.

Brazil U-23 vs. Egypt U-23

Cairo International Stadium, Cairo, Egypt, November 17, 2020

Kickoff: 2:00 PM EDT / 4:00 PM BRT / 7:00 PM GMT

US TV / Streaming: Someone will probably stream it on YouTube

Likely Starting Lineup: Phelipe; Emerson, Gabriel Magalhães, Lyanco, Caio Henrique; Wendel, Maycon, Reinier; Rodrygo, Matheus Cunha, David Neres.

Notes And Storylines

While the kids won their first game of the FIFA date by a much more comfortable scoreline than the senior side did, it was hardly a perfect performance. Though Brazil were clearly the better side for the majority of the game, South Korea were able to pressure them in the early minutes and force them into mistakes later on, scoring after six minutes, missing a penalty after 24 and seeing another goal dubiously annulled before the end of the first half. Though Reinier and David Neres missed golden chances for Brazil, this game could very easily have gone much worse. It does feel like this U-23 side is missing an anchoring presence in midfield, especially with Bruno Guimarães promoted to the senior side thanks to Fabinho’s injury.

I close this preview with a bit of sad news. Carlos Amadeu, who led the Brazil U-17 side in their much-celebrated South American U-17 Championship win in 2017, and coached the U-20 side for the 2019 South American U-20 championship, died suddenly of a heart attack this week at the age of 55. Rest in peace.