Brazil vs. Venezuela

Estádio do Morumbi, São Paulo, November 13, 2020

Kickoff: 7:30 PM EDT / 9:30 PM BRT / 12:30 AM GMT

US TV / Streaming: PPV only

Likely Starting Lineup: Ederson; Danilo, Thiago Silva, Marquinhos, Renan Lodi; Allan, Douglas Luiz, Éverton Ribeiro; Richarlison, Roberto Firmino, Gabriel Jesus.

Notes And Storylines

Between COVID and an unusual number of injuries, there’s been far more churn in the squad than usual, so here’s a refresher on who we have available:

Goalkeepers: Alisson, Ederson, Weverton

Right-backs: Danilo, Gabriel Menino (last-minute cut – COVID)

Left-backs: Alex Telles, Renan Lodi

Center-Backs: Marquinhos, Thiago Silva, Felipe (replaces Éder Militão – COVID), Diego Carlos (replaces Rodrigo Caio – injured)

Midfielders: Bruno Guimarães (replaces Casemiro – COVID), Allan (replaces Fabinho – injured), Douglas Luiz, Arthur, Lucas Paquetá (replaces Coutinho – injured), Éverton Ribeiro

Forwards: Everton Cebolinha, Firmino, Gabriel Jesus, Neymar (out vs. Venezuela and questionable vs. Uruguay – injured), Richarlison, Vinícius Júnior, Pedro.

This means we’ve got to make do without several of our most regular starters and, in Casemiro’s case, also their obvious backup. That informs the pretty unusual lineup Tite rolled out in training, with a double pivot of Allan and Douglas Luiz and three of our most striker-ish forwards. We’ll have to wait and see whether this works at all. I’ve been pretty vocal about wanting to see Brazil try a strike partnership, possibly with Richarlison and Gabriel Jesus, and depending on how much Firmino drops deep to let them come inside, we may indeed get that on Friday. But my gut feeling is that this lineup isn’t going to work. Richarlison and GJ will get stuck out wide when they have the ball and when Firmino drops deep, he won’t be able to supply them with the ball effectively.

Speaking of Firmino, it’s once again interesting to see what sort of form Tite rewards or doesn’t. Arthur, presumably, has lost out to Douglas Luiz on account of not playing much yet for Juventus and Luiz doing decently in last month’s games. Everton Cebolinha, I’d hazard, isn’t starting because of a combination of patchy club form over the last few weeks and slightly underwhelming displays on the right wing in October. Firmino scored two goals and an assist in Brazil’s last two games, but for Liverpool…

I was pretty vocal about how underwhelming Firmino was against Bolivia and Peru despite the good numbers he put up: the two goals he scored were tap-ins you’d expect of any striker, but he passed up three or four other excellent chances to score, either by just missing the chance outright or failing to get clear for a shot thanks to his lack of pace. He’s backing that up at club level by hitting new lows in what is now a year-long slump, and it’s possible that he’ll soon either see his starting role changed significantly or lose it entirely in order to accommodate the ascendant Diogo Jota. He’s only starting because he played well in Brazil’s last games, except he really didn’t, and when a game comes around where he isn’t handed chances on a silver platter, no amount of pressing on his part will excuse how poor the rest of his play is these days.

That reminds me that the last time Brazil faced Venezuela, Firmino was directly responsible for getting three Brazil goals annulled for various fouls and offsides. (You can see them all in this video.) It was truly one of the most cursed individual performances in Seleção history. He probably could’ve done better on the third one, at least, but I bring this up not to impugn him (much) further but rather to point out that the last time Brazil faced Venezuela—in last year’s Copa América, also at home—it wasn’t pretty. A dour display saw us dominate possession and the shot counter but fail to score, landing only one of our 19 shots on target. And just like in that game, we’re facing them without Neymar, except this time we’ve got a few more starters out. Venezuela at home is a game we should absolutely, unequivocally win, but given how poorly largely the same group of attacking players fared against them last year, it raises the possibility of another very frustrating display, even if the breakthrough goal doesn’t get disallowed this time.

Perhaps the memory of that game is why Tite seems to be angling for a relatively conservative lineup, and Lord knows we can’t take anything for granted in World Cup qualifying, but this is definitely the sort of game where I would’ve liked to see some experimenting. There are three players in particular whom I’d like to see take the field. First is Gabriel Menino, who was called up again at right-back even though Dani Alves is fit now. He didn’t play at all in October, but now that Tite has signaled some long-term interest in him, I’m curious to see whether he’s got what it takes to end our long nightmare of not having any good young right-backs. (EDIT: lol nevermind he tested positive for COVID and is out of the squad) Next is Bruno Guimarães, a very late addition to the squad who also didn’t play in October. Though he’s seemingly down the depth chart, I think a box-to-box midfielder with his creative ability would be very useful against Venezuela. Last is Pedro, also added late, but far and away the Brazilian striker in the best form and a player Tite has followed for years. Hopefully we open up a good lead and Tite brings them all on in the second half, but I wish at least one of them would start, because something tells me the only one we’re guaranteed to see subbed on is Pedro.

There is one significant wild card in the lineup, and that’s Éverton Ribeiro. Coutinho’s injury seems to have afforded the Flamengo playmaker his first ever start for Brazil, and a rare opportunity to upstage the Barcelona man. People on this blog tend to be fairly down on Ribeiro, but I think he’ll be at least as good as Coutinho has been. Not the highest bar, I know, and it doesn’t guarantee that he’ll be able to inspire this team—but I do believe there’s a chance he will.

That said, I’m going to go with a relatively dour prediction this time: Brazil 1-0 Venezuela, with a deeply frustrating performance before Pedro is subbed on late and scores the winner.

Now for an undercard so “under” it’s actually held the next morning after everyone’s left for the night.

Brazil U-23 vs. South Korea

Cairo International Stadium, Cairo, Egypt, November 14, 2020

Kickoff: 9:00 AM EDT / 11:00 AM BRT / 2:00 PM GMT

US TV / Streaming: Might be streamed on the CBF website? idk

Updated Squad (this may not be accurate, I’ve seen conflicting reports about who’s already been replaced and who needs to be replaced):

Goalkeepers: Phelipe Megiolaro (FC Dallas), Gabriel Brazão (Real Oviedo), Daniel Fuzato (Gil Vicente)

Fullbacks: Emerson (Real Betis), Dodô (Shakhtar Donetsk), Caio Henrique (Monaco), Gustavo Assunção (FC Famalicão; replaces Ayrton Lucas – COVID)

Center-Backs: Gabriel Magalhães (Arsenal), TBA (replaces Ibañez – cannot travel due to COVID restrictions in Rome), Murilo (Lokomotiv Moscow; replaces Luiz Felipe – injured), Lyanco (Torino)

Midfielders: Wendel (Zenit), Maycon (Shakhtar Donetsk), Marcos Antônio (Shakthar Donetsk), Tetê (Shakhtar Donetsk; replaces Lucas Paquetá – called to senior team), Reinier (Borussia Dortmund), (Bruno Guimarães called to senior team and not replaced)

Forwards: Danilo Pereira (FC Twente; replaces Antony – injured), David Neres (Ajax), Evanilson (Porto), Matheus Cunha (Hertha Berlin), Mauro Júnior (PSV; replaces Pedrinho – injured), Rodrygo (Real Madrid)

Notes And Storylines

I know a lot less about what André Jardine has planned for these games, but one thing is obvious—there’s a lot of must-watch players in this squad, even with so many players being cut. The defense is full of players we’re either sure to see soon or want to see more of at senior level, between the already-capped Emerson and Gabriel Magalhães, who is having a great first season for Arsenal. Midfield has Reinier and Tetê as standout names, though potentially the biggest draw is the possibility of just plugging in the entire Shakhtar midfield and enjoying the instant chemistry. Up front, we’re stacked with names that could just as easily have been with the senior team this month, even without Antony; David Neres is working his way back after some injury trouble and falling out of Tite’s plans (which, ironically, we can probably trace back to his doing poorly in that Venezuela game), Rodrygo briefly scored his first Brazil goal last month before the mean ol’ referee rightly deemed it an own goal, and Matheus Cunha is back after getting his first taste of the senior squad.