On Friday the 17th, Tite will announce Brazil’s squad for the Copa América in June. He is likely to announce a 23-man squad, rather than a larger group from which a few players will be cut, which leaves him with some tough decisions. I read, though I can’t find it now, that he intends to start his training camp on May 20th, to begin working with every player not involved in the Champions League final as soon as possible. That would give him nearly a month to work with the players before Brazil opens the tournament against Bolivia on June 14. That interval might have been a good opportunity to call up a larger group, in order to observe some new faces before making final cuts, but it seems that is not to be.

So Tite is left with a bunch of tough decisions. Many of his favorite players, including a lot of the World Cup veterans, have underperformed for Brazil over the past year, while several newcomers to the Seleção made instant impacts that will be difficult to ignore, even though they’ve only played in two or three games so far. With that in mind, I’m going to try and lay out what his options are at each position, giving a depth chart based on how likely I think he is to choose each of these players. Note that I’m only including players who I see as having some remote chance of being selected—so no Oscar, no Vanderlei, no Lyanco, etcetera.

Strikers

  1. Roberto Firmino: Firmino has yet to truly excel for Brazil under Tite, who seems to view him as a traditional number 9 rather than the false 9 he plays for Liverpool, but the coach has made clear his intent to make him the regular starter, and becoming a two-time Champions League finalist won’t have hurt his case any. That said, a muscle injury has kept him out of Liverpool’s recent games, and it’s not clear how long he’ll be sidelined.
  2. Gabriel Jesus: I don’t really think his position is in jeopardy, especially not after scoring twice in Brazil’s last game back in March, but his lack of minutes for Manchester City is worth noting. It’s surprising how much of a non-factor he’s been in City’s pursuit of four titles. He’s only made one start in the Premier League or Champions League since January, and as a substitute the most he’s done is score a couple of goals that gave City some breathing room in a game they were only leading by one goal.
  3. Pedro: The Fluminense youngster was called up in Tite’s first squad after the World Cup, only to suffer a knee injury that kept him out until last month. He’s returned very strongly, with two goals in three substitute appearances, but it’s likely too late to displace one of the regulars.
  4. Willian José: A genuine outsider, José is on this list mainly because Tite called him up just before the World Cup, when he was looking for a proper target man. He has 11 goals and five assists for Real Sociedad this season, but hasn’t sniffed the Brazil setup in a year, so he’s a real long shot.

Wingers

  1. Neymar: Duh.
  2. Philippe Coutinho: Coutinho is this high on the depth chart only because I can’t imagine him not being called up at all. He’s had an absolute nightmare of a campaign for Barcelona, to the point where he was booed by his own fans, is likely to leave in the summer, and seems to be losing what once seemed an undisputed starting role with Brazil after a string of anonymous performances. But you have to figure he’ll at least be part of the Copa América squad, if only because exclusion would leave his already fragile confidence in absolute tatters. Honestly, it might be best for him to be injured and miss the Copa altogether, instead spending the summer working on his fitness and getting his head back in the game. That I say that speaks to how unlikely I think it is that he’ll be able to turn things around in June.
  3. Richarlison: The only other winger whose spot in the squad seems all-but certain. Along with Neymar, he is Brazil’s top scorer since the World Cup, and was one of the few consistent bright spots in a year of generally bad Seleção performances. He picked up an injury in Everton’s penultimate Premier League game, but I’ve heard nothing to suggest that it would threaten his Copa chances.
  4. Everton Cebolinha: Grêmio have had an inconsistent start to the season, but Cebolinha has nonetheless enjoyed the most prolific spell of his career, scoring nine goals in 16 games and putting in a very impressive cameo in Brazil’s game against the Czech Republic. I put him ahead of David Neres, another player with a similar record, mainly because he has been in the picture for longer: he made his Brazil debut back in September, whereas Neres only made his first appearance in Brazil’s very last game.
  5. David Neres: The Ajax star has had an inconsistent campaign, but he’s this high on the list thanks to three huge performances in the first half of 2019: his goalscoring displays against Real Madrid and Juventus in the Champions League, and his Brazil debut against the Czech Republic, where in a superb half-hour he assisted one goal, set up another, and nearly scored himself. Given how much better Brazil played in that half-hour than they had in the five and a half full games beforehand, it’s hard to imagine him being ignored in June.
  6. Willian: Sick as we are of him, and as much as it seems like he’s finally falling out of favor with Tite, we can’t rule out his presence. He’s had a quietly good club season (eight goals and 14 assists, including seven to top the Europa League assist table), and we can’t assume that his exclusion from the March friendlies means he’s gone for good. But maybe, just maybe, Cebolinha and David Neres played well enough in those games to convince Tite that it’s time for a youth revolution.
  7. Lucas Moura: Lucas has forced his way back into the picture thanks largely to his astounding hat-trick that brought Tottenham back from the dead in the Champions League semifinal. His only appearance for Tite’s Brazil came back in October—a dismal 45-minute showing against Saudi Arabia—which means he probably wasn’t even on the radar before this week. But he owes his recent success for Spurs to an intriguing change in his position: Mauricio Pochettino has begun using him as an out-and-out forward instead of a winger or attacking midfielder, and it’s paid off with two hat-tricks in a month. With Brazil’s actual forwards struggling to score, Lucas might emerge as an alternate option—though I have to imagine the Copa América comes too soon for him.
  8. Vinícius Júnior: Only injury kept the teenage sensation from debuting for Brazil in March, but the lack of any sort of preliminary callup probably puts paid to his Copa América hopes. If Tite were calling up a larger group, I think VJ would have been given a shot to play his way into the final squad. Without that, I expect the odds of him muscling out anyone who’s actually played with the Seleção are slim.
  9. Felipe Anderson: Anderson put together a very good debut season for West Ham, good enough to win him a callup back in March. But he did very little in a (admittedly very short) cameo against Panama, and when you consider how much better Everton and David Neres fared in their cameo appearances, it’s hard to imagine that Anderson is ahead of them in the pecking order.
  10. Douglas Costa: Cristiano Ronaldo’s arrival at Juventus has been a nightmare for Costa, who has barely played this year after enjoying the best season of his career the year before. That’s pushed him out of the Brazil setup, and given that he’s been out injured for the past month, he’s surely out of the picture for this summer.

Holding/Box-to-Box Midfield

  1. Arthur: Surely the first name on the team sheet here, though he just suffered a muscular injury whose severity is unclear.
  2. Lucas Paquetá: Though his first half-season in Milan has been pretty poor, and he wasn’t especially impressive (other than his goal against Panama) in the March friendlies, Tite is a huge fan of Paquetá and sees him as part of Brazil’s future, so his slow start to life in Europe is not likely to keep him out of the team.
  3. Allan: The Napoli man has played well whenever he’s come onto the pitch for Brazil, and while he didn’t debut until November, he seems to be working himself increasingly into Tite’s first-team plans, and seems certain to be in the squad.
  4. Renato Augusto: Augusto is one of those good-not-great players who you kind of hope won’t get called up, while also acknowledging that there aren’t many other players who can replace him. Tite recently observed two games of his in China, so he’s definitely in the running.
  5. (sigh) Paulinho: He’s never gone, is he? One of the Renato Augusto games Tite watched happened to be against Paulinho’s team, so it’s not out of the question that he returns, though it sounds like Augusto was far and away Tite’s first priority on this scouting trip.
  6. Fred: Though he was part of the World Cup squad (and played in the 2015 Copa América, fun fact), poor performances in recent friendlies and a very disappointing debut season for Manchester United have probably put paid to his Copa América chances.
  7. Andreas Pereira: He appeared in Brazil’s first post-World Cup squad, but he’s been even more of a non-factor for United than Fred has.

Defensive Midfield

  1. Casemiro: Maybe the most undisputed starter after Neymar.
  2. Fabinho: I’m actually not certain that Fabinho will be in the team as a defensive midfielder, given that he’s barely played there for Brazil, but his versatility means he’s bound to be in the team somewhere. No way Tite would snub him entirely when the guy’s just earned a place in a Champions League final.
  3. Fernandinho: Tite has made clear his admiration for the veteran, who has yet to return to the Brazil fold post-World Cup only because of injury and threats he received in the wake of his own goal against Belgium. That he hasn’t played for Brazil in a year will weigh heavily against him, but Tite loves him and obviously wants to give him a chance to redeem himself. If he does return, I doubt it would be at Fabinho’s expense; more likely someone like Renato Augusto would be left out.
  4. Walace: He’s clearly inferior to the three guys above him and it would be a real shock to see him called up ahead of any one of them. He had a brief spell in the team last fall, but Fabinho seems to be staking his claim to be Casemiro’s backup.

Left-Back

  1. Filipe Luís: It’s likely to be his last hurrah for Brazil, and he’s had a fairly anonymous season for club and country, but Tite still views him as the clear choice to start at the Copa America. He’ll be in the squad.
  2. Alex Sandro: While his performances for the Seleção have rarely been all that good, he’s clearly above Marcelo in the pecking order right now, and seems to be improving as he gets more time in Tite’s setup.
  3. Marcelo: Never count the Real Madrid man out, but thanks to a combination of injuries and poor club form, he hasn’t played for Brazil since the World Cup, while everyone else in the running has had a chance to train and play with the team and get up to speed with the new faces Tite’s brought in. He’s a favorite of the coach, so you can’t count him out, but with only two spots up for grabs in the final squad, it’s unlikely that he’ll be one of them.
  4. Alex Telles: A late addition to the mix, the Porto man was outstanding in an otherwise dreadful team performance against Panama in March. He’s had easily the best season of anyone on the depth chart here—six goals, 11 assists, and a decisive Champions League—but having only received his first cap in March, it’s hard to imagine that he displaces any of the far more seasoned players in front of him.

Center-Back

  1. Thiago Silva: Unfortunately, there is a very good chance that he’ll have to miss the tournament because of the meniscus injury he suffered in April, but he’s the first name on the team sheet otherwise. There’s a month between the callup and the deadline (June 13, the eve of the tournament) for cutting injured players; Tite will surely call Silva up initially and then drop him if he isn’t fit. It would be a shame to see him cut, and it could spell a sad end to a storied international career.
  2. Marquinhos: An undisputed starter, both now and, unlike Silva, for maybe a decade to come.
  3. Miranda: Reports say he’ll return to the starting lineup if Silva isn’t fit. Like Silva, this might be his last hurrah for the Seleção.
  4. Éder Militão: Tite sees him as Marquinhos’ long-term partner in defense, so his spot in the squad is pretty well assured, but he’s not likely to get much playing time in the tournament at center-back. If it were up to me, he’d be starting at right-back. It’d be more beneficial for him than sitting on the bench, and it’d be more beneficial for Brazil, since he’s much better on the right than any of the players likely to actually be selected here.
  5. Dedé: Tite has a soft spot for the Cruzeiro big man, and if Silva indeed misses out, he’s sure to opt for a veteran replacement rather than a younger face like Lyanco or Luiz Felipe.
  6. Pablo: Mainly on the list because Tite called him up twice last fall, but he seems to have fallen back out of favor, and was never all that good to begin with.
  7. Felipe: Now we’re stretching the realms of possibility, but Tite knows the Porto man from their time at Corinthians and he’s called him up before.

Right-Back:

  1. Dani Alves: Perhaps a bold claim, given that he hasn’t played for Brazil since before the World Cup, but I think Alves will get his Brazil swan song—and another chance at the 40th career trophy that eluded him in the Coupe de France final—this summer. He’s played well for PSG (albeit more as a right winger than a right-back, such is his lack of mobility at age 36) since his return from injury, and more importantly, there’s nobody else who has a serious claim to the right-back spot right now.
  2. Danilo: Despite a bad season for Manchester City, the lack of competition, plus a bright performance against the Czech Republic, should keep Danilo in the team for the summer.
  3. Fagner: Don’t count the Corinthians man out, but he definitely seems to be lower in the pecking order than Danilo.
  4. The Mythical Promised Right-Back, The One Who Shall Emerge Fully-Formed From The Streets Of Rocinha In The Form Of Cafu, But Taller And Also Eternally 26, And Take Brazil’s Captain’s Armband For The Next Half-Century: Given the lack of options, this fellow might have a shot.

Goalkeeper

  1. Alisson: If there were any doubts about his supremacy over Ederson, his performance in the Champions League semifinal surely quelled them.
  2. Ederson: Even if he’s not going to start, his inclusion is just as much of a no-brainer as Alisson’s.
  3. Cássio: Third-choice goalkeeper is a real guessing game. I’m going to guess it goes to Cássio because of the Corinthians connection, but I honestly don’t know for certain.
  4. Neto: A poor end to the season for Valencia (five straight losses with 17 goals conceded) is mainly why I rate him below Cássio.
  5. Weverton: Palmeiras’ number 1 (well, number 21) was the third choice back in March, but as long as he continues to make silly errors, I refuse to believe that he’ll be put higher. Yep, I’m pulling the “I don’t like this guy very much” card.

So Who’ll Be Called Up?

23 players will make the final list. Of these, the squad is pretty much guaranteed to have:

  • 3 goalkeepers
  • 2 right-backs
  • 2 left-backs
  • 4 center-backs
  • 2 defensive midfielders
  • 2 wingers on each side, 4 in total
  • 2 strikers

Which leaves six positions to divvy up between the rest of the midfield and anywhere else that Tite thinks might need extra reinforcement. As it stands, I think only the top three midfielders on our depth chart are guaranteed their places, and I highly doubt we’ll see anyone further down than Augusto get included. But it might also be that Fernandinho gets considered as a central mid rather than a defensive one, or that Coutinho is classified as a midfielder to bring in another option on the wing, or that Dani Alves is used more as a midfielder than a right-back.

In my reckoning, four of those places should be for proper midfielders (Arthur, Paquetá, Allan, and most likely one of Fernandinho or Augusto) and the remaining two should go to attackers. I really want to see David Neres included, and I think this is where room can be made for him. But who would get the last spot? There, I’m torn. It’s something of a wildcard spot that could go to any number of players who offer something a little different or have long-term potential. There’s a strong case to be made for giving a young but injury-hit talent like Vinícius Júnior or Pedro to finally make his debut; I’d be particularly curious to see whether Pedro, a genuine target man, would be a better fit for Tite’s system than Firmino or Gabriel Jesus. A safer bet might be to repatriate a veteran like Douglas Costa. I’m personally kind of keen to the compromise notion of calling Lucas Moura, a veteran with 35 caps, but trying him as a forward rather than a winger. But, then, I’m not the one making this call.