Brazil World Cup Blog

News, analysis, history, and discussion on all things Verde-Amarela

Author: Alexandro Strauss (Zetona) (page 2 of 3)

World Cup 2018: Brazil vs. Costa Rica

After a frustrating draw against Switzerland, Brazil will be raring to score a big win against easier opposition.

Brazil vs. Costa Rica

Saint Petersburg Stadium, Saint Petersburg, June 22, 2018

Kickoff: 8:00 AM EDT / 9:00 AM BRT / 12:00 PM GMT

US TV: FS1, Telemundo

US Streaming: Fox Sports Go (requires cable login), Telemundo Deportes (free to all until June 25)

Starting Lineup: Alisson; Fagner, Thiago Silva (C), Miranda, Marcelo; Casemiro, Paulinho, Coutinho; Willian, Gabriel Jesus, Neymar.

Zetona’s Opposition Profile™: Continue reading

World Cup 2018: Brazil vs. Switzerland

Our first game at this World Cup.

Brazil vs. Switzerland

Rostov Arena, Rostov-on-Don, June 17, 2018

Kickoff: 2:00 PM EDT / 3:00 PM BRT / 6:00 PM GMT

US TV: FS1, Telemundo

US Streaming: Fox Sports Go (requires cable login), Telemundo Deportes (free to all until June 25)

Starting Lineup: Alisson; Danilo, Thiago Silva, Miranda, Marcelo (C); Casemiro, Paulinho, Coutinho; Willian, Gabriel Jesus, Neymar.

Zetona’s Opposition Profile™: Continue reading

World Cup 2018: How Does Brazil’s Squad Stack Up To Those Before It?

Brazil’s World Cup campaign starts on Sunday, and at this point everything is pretty much set in stone. We know the tactics Tite will use, we know the players he’s picked, and we know how those players tend to play for Brazil. It’s hard to predict what’ll happen in a tournament as volatile for the World Cup. So I’m not going to. Instead, I’m going to take a journey back in time, to this same moment on the eve of our past two World Cups. Where were we then? What did our prospects look like compared to now? In particular, how did the players we had back then stack up to the ones we do today?

That last question is the focus of this piece. I’m going to go through this year’s squad and compare it, position-by-position (roughly), to the squads we brought to the 2010 and 2014 World Cups—considering not just the players selected, but their form and fitness at the time. The goal of all this is simple: to demonstrate that, in terms of personnel, this is the best  World Cup squad we’ve had since the golden age of 1994-2006 ended.

Let’s start at the back. Continue reading

World Cup 2018: What Can We Still Learn Before Our Opening Match?

Brazil’s World Cup campaign doesn’t kick off until the 17th, but before then we play two friendlies, against Croatia later today and against Austria this time next week. The former is in the World Cup too, having finished second to Iceland in their qualifying group before routing Greece in the playoff; the latter is not, having finished fourth in the group containing our group-stage rivals Serbia. (They beat the World Cup hosts earlier this week in a friendly, but that seems like it isn’t very hard to do.)

Two games. A hundred and eighty minutes of game time to iron out what creases we can before we face Switzerland on June 17. The bigger factor by far, of course, is going to be the four weeks or so of uninterrupted practice time in the buildup to the World Cup opener, far more time to train and tweak the side than Tite’s ever enjoyed. And it’s good that we have that, because while this side is in pretty good shape, there are some tactical considerations that still need to be addressed:

How fit is Neymar? 

Our most important player is still recovering from a broken bone in his foot, and though he’s been training regularly, there appear to be concerns both over whether he’s fully healed and whether he’ll return to proper match fitness in time for the tournament. Early indications are that he’ll be slowly eased back into playing, coming off the bench for part of the second half of today’s game. I don’t think it’s the worst thing in the world if he comes into the World Cup below ideal sharpness—in theory, that would let his physical condition peak as we enter the knockout stages. The bigger concern is whether his foot is indeed fully healed, which, well, is largely out of Tite’s control. If it’s not healed, we may see Neymar compromised like he was during the 2014 World Cup, when he carried a niggling foot injury into the tournament. If it is, then it’s just a matter of making sure his body is back in peak conditioning after a long time with the offending foot in a boot, at which point we might enjoy the healthiest, freshest Neymar we’ve ever had.

Can Firmino play an important role?

The calls for Roberto Firmino to start ahead of Gabriel Jesus came thick and fast through most of this past season, as Firmino racked up 26 goals and 14 assists for Liverpool while Jesus went pretty much the entire winter without scoring a goal for Manchester City. Despite that difference in form, Firmino’s last start for Brazil came back in September against Colombia. He didn’t play very well in that game at all, but neither did Brazil as a whole, and he was particularly badly served by his then-club teammate Coutinho not coming on as a sub until after he’d been taken off. All of which has made us all wonder whether Firmino, in his current form and paired with Coutinho, could outplay Jesus as our striker.

Unfortunately, we’re not likely to get an answer in these next questions—at least not to that question specifically. Firmino spent last weekend playing in the Champions League final, which doesn’t make it likely that he’d get an experimental start, ahead of our first-choice forward, against Croatia. Against Austria, which on paper should be an easier game, it might be more likely—but, then again, that’s our very last tuneup before the World Cup, and Tite will probably favor his starters.

More likely is that we’ll see Firmino get some good minutes as a sub, perhaps to keep Jesus fresh, but we’ve seen him in that role, and he hasn’t really done much. No, if he can’t get a shot to show what he can do as Brazil’s sole striker, I’d love to see Tite try an idea he’s talked about before: playing Jesus and Firmino together up front to break down a tight defense. From our past games against them, we know that Croatia and Austria both know how to make themselves tough to play through, which makes them an ideal testing bed.

Who should be our right-back? 

Dani Alves was rarely anywhere near as good for Brazil as he was for his club sides. But as frustrating as it was to be on this blog, feeling like the only people who recognized that, he really was our best option at right-back before he wrecked his knee earlier this month. Tite has chosen two replacements, neither of whom inspire much confidence. Fágner is a fairly unremarkable player, capable of some nice things at either end without ever looking world-class, who’s already shown that he might struggle dealing with high-level teams like Argentina. Danilo, meanwhile, is a player with the natural talent to do incredible things on a semiregular basis, but who has always struggled with the “defending” part of his role as a right-back. Still, he’s played in far bigger games than has Fágner, up to and including a Champions League final, and my sense is that a good coach can motivate him to remain focused and keep his defensive discipline, at least for a few games. If Tite can manage that, his ceiling is far, far higher than Fágner’s, and his skill on the ball makes him a much better fit for the right-sided midfield playmaker role Dani Alves would often occupy in practice.

I know you all have doubts. That’s fine. When you’re ready to hear me out, come join me on Danilo Will Come Good Island. There’s plenty of room here, and whole place is only occasionally completely underwater!

Who will replace Renato Augusto?

Renato Augusto, once a mainstay in Tite’s midfield, began to fall out of favor towards the tail end of last year, and now it seems likely that he won’t be anywhere near the starting lineup at the World Cup. Tite now has several options for what to do with the position. He could bring Coutinho back into midfield, and put Willian out on the wing, for a side that’s inventive but physically fragile; he could put Fernandinho in the role and keep Coutinho out wide, sacrificing some chalk-on-boots wing play for a more stable midfield and Coutinho’s ability to drift inside and create danger; he could even put Fred into the role, for a box-to-box compromise between Coutinho’s skill and Fernandinho’s intelligence in a deeper role. The first two are obviously the most likely, and I’m inclined to think Tite favors the Fernandinho option. Coutinho has shown that he can be physically overmatched when playing centrally, especially when he doesn’t have enough backup from the guys behind him—Paulinho isn’t much help, and Casemiro is often too busy covering a deeper position. Believe it or not, we’ve not had a good test of this—the only times when Coutinho and Fernandinho have taken to the field together as starters was when Neymar wasn’t available. (And it doesn’t look like we’ll see Neymar starting the Croatia game, which means Coutinho is likely to start in his place on the left wing, which means we still won’t get a clear answer to this question.)

Can we fix our issues from set pieces?

If there’s one tactical area where Brazil still struggles and might make a substantial improvement without changing personnel, it’s set pieces. We often look very shaky from set plays. The last goal we conceded, back in November against Japan, was from a corner. Since then, even without giving up goals, we’ve often looked less than convincing when trying to defend corners and free kicks. Some of this might indeed be solved with a personnel change, as Marquinhos, who seems to struggle in aerial duels, is phased out of the starting lineup in favor of Thiago Silva, but the main reason I hope to see some improvement here is one I’ve already touched on: Tite finally has more than a handful of days to work with his players on the training ground. He can address whatever nitpicks he couldn’t justify taking the time to drill before. Fingers crossed, that’ll mean we finally see some real improvement in this regard.

Anyways, here’s the skinny on the match today. I’ve written this several days in advance, and I’m afraid I won’t be able to update this with the actual starting lineup.

Brazil vs. Croatia

Anfield, Liverpool, June 3, 2018

Kickoff: 10:00 AM EDT / 11:00 AM BRT / 2:00 PM GMT

US TV/streaming: beIN Sports

Starting XI projection: Alisson; Danilo,  Thiago Silva, Miranda, Marcelo; Casemiro, Paulinho, Fernandinho; Willian, Gabriel Jesus, Coutinho

Brazil’s World Cup Squad

Here it is, exactly as Tite read it out: 

Goalkeepers: Alisson (Roma), Cássio (Corinthians), Ederson (Man City)

Defenders: Danilo (Man City), Geromel (Grêmio), Filipe Luís (Atlético Madrid), Marcelo (Real Madrid), Marquinhos (PSG), Miranda (PSG), Fágner (Corinthians), Thiago Silva (PSG)

Midfielders: Casemiro (Real Madrid), Fernandinho (Man City), Fred (Shakhtar Donetsk), Paulinho (Barcelona), Philippe Coutinho (Barcelona), Renato Augusto (Beijing Guoan), Willian (Chelsea)

Attackers: Douglas Costa (Juventus), Roberto Firmino (Liverpool), Gabriel Jesus (Man City), Neymar (PSG), Taison (Shakthar Donetsk)

The Twelve Reserves: Tite opted to only make one of these public, Dedé of Cruzeiro, but it has since been leaked that Rodrigo Caio is on the list as well.

Zetona’s Hot Take™:  Continue reading

Who’s Going To Be In Brazil’s World Cup Squad?

On Monday the 14th, the FIFA-mandated deadline for doing so, Tite will announce the 23 players he is taking to the World Cup. He’s been very up front about his plans: back in February he named 15 players who had already booked their spot, which soon expanded to 16 and then 17 or 18 depending on who you ask. In any case, what that means is that the squad currently looks like this:

Goalkeepers: Alisson, Ederson, ___________

Right-Backs: Dani Alves, ___________, _________

Center-Backs: Marquinhos, Miranda, Thiago Silva, ____________

Left-Backs: Marcelo, ____________

Defensive/Holding Midfielders: Casemiro, Renato Augusto, Fernandinho

Attacking/Box-To-Box Midfielders: Paulinho, Coutinho, Fred

Wingers: Neymar, Willian, Douglas Costa

Forwards: Gabriel Jesus, Roberto Firmino

????????: ___________

Dani Alves was guaranteed a place, but just today it was confirmed that his knee injury means he’s out of the World Cup—an ignominious end (one presumes) to a tumultuous twelve years with the Seleção. Fred and Douglas Costa, meanwhile, haven’t 100% been guaranteed by Tite to be going to the World Cup, but were reported to have all-but clinched their places after the March friendlies against Russia and Germany. That leaves five six spots unfilled: four five of them for backups across the defensive line, and a wild-card slot for strengthening whatever sector Tite feels most needs it. Based on my understanding of Tite’s thinking, and supplementing reports about which players he’s considering with who we’ve seen him consider in the past, I’m going to try and predict who gets each of those five six open spots. Continue reading

Grêmio vs. Atlético-PR: The Most Interesting Coaching Battle Brazil Has Seen In Years

Yesterday, Grêmio and Atlético Paranaense played out a 0-0 draw in the Brazilian league.

So? Why does this warrant a whole article, Zetona? 

To answer that, we have to keep in mind the current coaching situation in the Brazilian league.

Good coaching, let alone attack-oriented coaching, has been something of a rarity in Brazil recently, which owes to a whole number of factors: a large number of “big”, historically successful clubs compete for a small number of actual prizes and titles, which means fans often have unrealistic expectations for success; many clubs give fans opportunities to buy memberships and vote on management roles, which gives them a level of influence that, if they’re impatient or overly demanding, can pressure the management into rapid-fire coaching changes; the resultant culture means clubs move for proven quick-fix coaches instead of trying to implement long-term plans to grow and develop their football, which usually just means hiring Joel Santana for the fifth time; and the CBF’s coaching licenses aren’t valid in Europe, which keeps Brazilian coaches out of big-ticket jobs abroad.

A deeper dive into the issue is beyond the scope of this article: suffice it to say that Renato Gaúcho’s twenty-month tenure in charge of Grêmio is the third-longest of any coach in the Brazilian top flight (and Enderson Moreira and Mano Menezes, the top two, have him beat by only about two months). That was enough time for him to turn the Porto Alegre club into arguably the strongest team on the continent, sweeping to last year’s Copa Libertadores title on the back of slick passing play and attacking football. It doesn’t hurt that Grêmio have one of the best squads in South America, boasting World Cup hopefuls Marcelo Grohe, Pedro Geromel, Arthur, and Luan, as well as young talents like Everton and Ramiro and proven veterans like Léo Moura and Bruno Cortez. Arthur and Luan may well represent the future of the Seleção’s midfield, and if anybody is in pole position to take over the national team coaching job whenever Tite departs, it’s Renato.

Which all means that anybody hoping to make a name for themselves as a coach has to go through Renato and his Grêmio side. Enter Fernando Diniz, maybe the most ambitious coach in the entire country. He first drew national attention for his exploits at the head of São Paulo state minnows Audax, where he instilled a fanatical devotion to Barcelona-style tiki-taka passing play. It was a philosophy that led to occasional embarrassments, but it also produced one of football’s great underdog campaigns: Audax reached the final of the 2016 São Paulo state championship, beating national giants Corinthians and São Paulo to do so. After bouncing around between similarly low-tier clubs for much of the next year and a half, Diniz finally got his big break this year, landing his first top-flight job with Atlético Paranaense. Despite his lack of top-flight experience, Diniz seems to have adapted well: earlier in April, Atlético won the Paraná state championship, notched an impressive 3-0 first-leg win against Newell’s Old Boys in the Copa Sudamericana, and beat Chapecoense 5-1 to end the first round of Brazilian league action on top of the table.

All this set the stage for yesterday’s matchup. Rarely has the Brazilian league had two coaches so intent on, and successful in producing, attacking, aesthetically pleasing football—and yesterday, they faced each other for the first time ever. It’s the sort of game that warrants a writeup no matter what the result. Let’s dive in.   Continue reading

Brazil vs. Germany Thread

Brazil vs. Germany

Olympiastadion, Berlin, March 27, 2018

Kickoff: 2:45 PM EDT / 3:45 PM BRT / 6:45 PM GMT

US TV: None (the hell?); Streaming: WatchESPN

Starting Lineup: Alisson; Dani Alves (C), Thiago Silva, Miranda, Marcelo; Casemiro, Paulinho, Fernandinho; Willian, Gabriel Jesus, Coutinho.

Zetona’s Keys to the Game™:

  1. Brazil has to perform at a high level all game long, not just for stretches like we did against Russia. Germany is much less likely to let us get away with the sort of sloppy errors we made on Friday.
  2. Dani Alves had a horror show against Russia, leaving massive gaps behind him whenever he came up the pitch to participate in buildup play. If he isn’t restricted to a purely defensive role against Germany, Leroy Sané is likely to absolutely eviscerate him. That would certainly be an ignominious way to mark his turn with the captain’s armband.
  3. Paulinho scored a goal and won a penalty against Russia, but he also missed two absolute sitters and was constantly, conspicuously absent both in midfield buildup play (which incentivized Dani Alves to come forward and playmake, see item 2) and in defense. We’re all familiar with this tradeoff between his poacher’s instinct and his frequent total lack of technique, and it’s one that Tite has long since decided is worth it. If it’s ever going to be shown up, though, it’ll be against Germany, as capable as any team of overwhelming and picking apart an undermanned midfield.
  4. Tite’s inclusion of Fernandinho just might tip the scales, however, especially if Coutinho and Willian cut inside frequently and make up the numbers in midfield. His added technical ability and defensive nous could be the key to keeping Brazil from being overrun in the middle, and to making sure we advance the ball effectively and incisively in attack.
  5. Our possession game doesn’t really suit our players, as we saw against Russia, where we couldn’t find a breakthrough until Russia began pushing up and leaving avenues for counterattacks. When we faced Germany in the Olympic final, we went toe-to-toe in midfield for much of the game, but only truly asserted ourselves as the better side once we began looking more on the counter late in the second half and into extra time. The same principle should apply at the full international level, and I expect Germany will push forward and leave plenty of space for counters—but without Neymar, our only truly fast player is Willian, so we might not be able to make the most of them.

Fun Fact: Neymar has scored in every game he has played against the German national team at any level. Unfortunately for us, today’s game means he’s missed as many Brazil vs. Germany games due to injury as he has played.

Brazil vs. Russia Thread

Just putting up a quick thread for today’s game.

Brazil vs. Russia

Luzhniki Stadium, Moscow, March 23, 2018

Kickoff: 12:00 PM EDT / 1:00 PM BRT / 4:00 PM GMT

US TV: beIN Sports

Starting Lineup: Alisson (C); Dani Alves, Thiago Silva, Miranda, Marcelo; Casemiro, Paulinho, Coutinho; Willian, Gabriel Jesus, Douglas Costa.

Four Months Out From The World Cup, Where Are We?

It’s World Cup year!

It’s still weird to say that. It feels like there’s remarkably little hype surrounding the coming tournament, even though we’re just a few months out. Living in the United State probably skews that perspective, given how the USMNT hilariously wasted their chance to go to the World Cup. But here on the blog, even though Brazil is arguably in better shape than in 2014 or 2010, there’s just not a lot of hype. The 7-1 loss to Germany in 2014 seems to have instilled a newfound trepidation, a fear that Brazil still has yet to fully overcome the faults that made that embarrassment possible and that something similar might happen again.

With all that said, today’s subject is a simple one. We’re four months out from the World Cup, more or less, and probably about three months out from Tite announcing his final squad for the tournament. One last pair of friendlies, against Russia and Germany, looms at the end of March. Tite and his staff are embarking on what very well might be their last round of scouting before the tournament this month. We know, if not his exact selections, roughly what his team will look like. Four months out, where does that leave us? I’m going to go through it position-by-position, building from the back. Continue reading

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