The old rivals darken our doorstep once more.

Brazil vs. Paraguay

Mineirão, Belo Horizonte, July 2, 2019

Kickoff: 8:30 PM EDT / 9:30 PM BRT / 12:30 AM GMT

US TV / Streaming: Telemundo, Globo international feed, ESPN+, FuboTV

Likely Starting Lineup: Alisson; Dani Alves (C), Thiago Silva, Marquinhos, Filipe Luís; Casemiro, Arthur, Coutinho; Everton, Roberto Firmino, Gabriel Jesus.

Injury Notes: Richarlison was liberated from quarantine and has rejoined the team. Filipe Luís is questionable with a calf injury, but he did take part in the final training session; whether he’ll start is still in doubt. There’s no word on whether Fernandinho will be fit.

Storylines to watch:

The Hermanos invade: For the first time in over a decade, Brazil faces Argentina in a major tournament, and for the first time in thirty years, the matchup occurs on home soil for one of the two sides. For Brazil, it means home field advantage, but also a return to the site of the team’s darkest day, the 7-1 loss to Germany in the 2014 World Cup. For Argentina, getting this far is perhaps a triumph in itself, given how deeply disorganized the team has been for the past few years, but that’ll hardly diminish the pressure on Lionel Messi to finally win some silverware for his country. And there’s a little wrinkle, psychologically, in Thiago Silva’s statement that Lionel Messi is “the greatest player in history“. A strange thing to admit to the Brazilian press.

Turning corners, but work to do: There is a definite sense that Brazil has evolved in very positive ways over the past two games in particular. The commanding 5-0 win over Peru was perhaps Brazil’s best tournament performance since the 2013 Confederations Cup final, and showed a team rampant and hungry to feast on any opposition error or semblance of space. The quarterfinal win against Paraguay was of a very different sort, showing a team with the desire to put it all on the line in search of a win and the fortitude to overcome a longstanding curse in a penalty shootout.

But that’s a long way from guaranteeing us success against Argentina. After all, the reason we had to display our psychological fortitude against Paraguay is because we couldn’t break them down across 90 minutes of play, and a big part of that owes to Gabriel Jesus and Roberto Firmino continuing to struggle in the number 9 role. Jesus has yet to score in a major tournament; Firmino has never scored against a World Cup-winning side; neither one is much use against a packed defense. The fact that Argentina are good enough to take the game to us might actually work in our favor. But that might not be much use if Argentina’s fleet-footed attackers get many chances to run at our aging back line. Casemiro’s back from suspension, at least, but it’s worth wondering, once again, why Tite didn’t call up Fabinho after he did such a good job against Messi for Liverpool.

I’m in Brazil now! I’ve always wanted to be in Brazil while Brazil wins a major tournament, and here’s my shot. They’d better not screw it up like they did in 2011. I don’t think they will, but I think it’ll be a bit nervy; a 2-1 Brazil win seems about right.